predictions for Texas Tech game

To repeat my warning, I'm on travel for this game and Tuesday's game; I plan to
post the usual predictions, but circumstances may cause those plans to fail.
I'll try to make this one quick, as time is short.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 9.0 point margin, with an 88.3 percent probability
of winning the game.  The two teams average 148.8 points per game (Kansas
more than Texas Tech), so the suggested final score would be Kansas 79,
Texas Tech 70.  Kansas is playing an average of just 0.6 points above
expectation, while Texas Tech is playing an average of 1.3 points above
expectation, which reduces the margin to 8.3 points.  Kansas is still the
conference's most consistent team, despite Tuesday's "most points below
expectation" of the season.  In only that game has Kansas played enough
below expectation to lose today's game, making it a 1 in 14 chance, or
7 percent probability.  Texas Tech is more consistent than the national
average, but more than a point less consistent than Kansas.  The Red Raiders
have played three of their games above expectation by enough to win today's
game, for a 21 percent probability of winning.  Those two average to 14
percent chance of Kansas losing, in good agreement with the 12 percent
derived from the Sagarin Predictor ratings.  Both teams have positive trends,
but neither is statistically significant.  Both teams have negative mental
toughness ratings, with the rating for Kansas having marginal statistical
significance.  Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas would be reduced
to 7.9 points.  The new Sagarin "offense-defense" method puts the margin at
7.4 points, and the final score is Kansas 78, Texas Tech 71.

Massey gives Kansas a 12.0 point margin, with an 86 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 80, Texas Tech 68.
Baylor is his new #1 team, by the way.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 6.5 units, as well as
the better adjusted defense by 1.4 units, which combine to an advantage of
7.9 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is 68.0, which translates
into a 5.4 point advantage for Kansas.  But we need to add the home court
advantage, which Sagarin has currently pegged at 3.2 points.  That makes the
margin 8.5 points, with the rounding working in Tech's favor, and the
predicted final score Kansas 76, Texas Tech 68, once again the rounding
working in Tech's favor.

Greenfield gives Kansas an 11.0 point margin, with a Vegas implied final score
of Kansas 78, Texas Tech 67.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in five of the eight categories; Texas Tech has a larger average
score margin, attempts more free throws per field goal attempt, and has a
smaller turnover percentage by a whisker.  Among the key defensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in five of the seven categories; Texas Tech holds
opponents to fewer points per game and commits fewer fouls per game.  Just
as well considering how poorly the Jayhawks have been shooting charities.

Dunkel gives Kansas an 8.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
10.5 points, so he is picking Texas Tech against the spread.  His total points
is 153, suggesting a final score of Kansas 80.5, Texas Tech 72.5 (you pick the
roundings).  Meanwhile, Vegas calls for 144.5 total points, suggesting a final
score of Kansas 77.5 (you pick the rounding), Texas Tech 67.

Real Time gives Kansas a 12 point margin and a final score of Kansas 88, Texas
Tech 74.  But if you click on the Scouting link, it becomes a margin of 17
points, a probability of winning at 81.8 percent, and a final score of
Kansas 89, Texas Tech 72.

Collegiate Basketball News has Villanova as #1 in the RPI, with Baylor at #2
leading the Big 12.  Kansas is at #6, and TCU is third in the Big 12 at #31.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin and a 72.1 percent probability of
winning, with a final score of Kansas 77, Texas Tech 70.

Don Davis' email graphic is damn near impossible to read, and zooming in only
makes matters worse, as the JPEG compression pixellation takes over.  I think
it gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, and the projected score might be Kansas 79,
Texas Tech 69.  The probability of victory might be 84 percent.

Colley gives Kansas a 13.0 point margin using the scaling factor of 42.23
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.2 point home court advantage.

Whitlock gives Kansas an 8.7 point margin using the scaling factor of 0.730
as determined previously and Sagarin's 3.2 point home court advantage.

The new and improved BPI still isn't up.  I'm using the ranking for Kansas
revealed recently and last year's ranking for Texas Tech.

The LRMC is on board for this season!  I wasn't expecting to see it until
the tournament.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin with an 80 percent probability
of winning the game.  The suggested final score is Kansas 78, Texas Tech 71.
Kentucky has replaced Kansas as Seven Overtimes' #1 team.

Crotistics gives Kansas an 11.5 point margin.

There are no common opponents.

Players to watch:  Forward Zach Smith plays the most minutes, grabs the most
rebounds, and blocks the most shots, but also commits the most turnovers;
guard Keenan Evans scores the most points; guard Devon Thomas dishes the most
assists and is also their leading thief; forward Justin Gray commits the most
personal fouls; expect forwards Aaron Ross and Anthony Livingston to see some
playing time.

So, the various prognostications range from 7.0 points (Dolphin and Seven
Overtimes) to 16 points (Real Time Scouting), with the average being 9.8 points,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 79, Texas Tech 70.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  6   # 45   #  7   #  6   #  7   +0.6    6.9   +0.03 +/- 0.48   -0.26 +/- 0.20
Texas Tech     # 27   #338   # 26   # 31   # 33   +1.3    8.1   +0.23 +/- 0.56   -0.08 +/- 0.18
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  4  #  8   #  7   # 46   #  5  # 10    #  5    #  3   # 37   #  6   # 38
Texas Tech     # 35  #119   # 28   #337   # 37  # 73    # 28    # 51   #271   # 62   #217
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  5   #  5   # 11   #  5   #  6   #  5   #  4   0.836   13-1     #     #   
Texas Tech     # 34   # 34   # 27   # 51   # 62   # 31   # 28   0.447   12-2     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  5  # 28    #  6  # 16    #  6  #       # 12  # 14    #  2  #  7    #  9  # 44
Texas Tech     # 59  #318    # 26  #148    #(46) #       # 26  #281    # 20  #248    # 33  #309

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 23 Indiana                     99 103    +4.05    -8.05
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        77  75    -2.16    +4.16
HOME   #187 Siena                       86  65   +25.12    -4.12
HOME   #151 UAB                         83  63   +22.60    -2.60
HOME   # 50 Georgia                     65  54   +13.12    -2.12
HOME   #148 NC Asheville                95  57   +22.53   +15.47
HOME   #205 Long Beach State            91  61   +26.18    +3.82
HOME   #108 Stanford                    89  74   +19.50    -4.50
HOME   #279 Kansas City(UMKC)          105  62   +30.89   +12.11
HOME   # 85 Nebraska                    89  72   +17.05    -0.05
HOME   # 75 Davidson                    89  71   +15.60    +2.40
AWAY   #183 UNLV                        71  53   +18.60    -0.60
AWAY   # 38 TCU                         86  80    +4.33    +1.67
HOME   # 42 Kansas State                90  88   +11.29    -9.29
HOME   # 26 Texas Tech                            +8.97             0.883
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma                              +8.17             0.815
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma State                        +9.92             0.804
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                            -0.31             0.489
HOME   # 67 Texas                                +14.81             0.921
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                         -7.47             0.237
AWAY   #  2 Kentucky                              -6.83             0.230
HOME   #  9 Baylor                                +3.62             0.681
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                            +6.03             0.702
AWAY   # 42 Kansas State                          +4.95             0.762
AWAY   # 26 Texas Tech                            +2.63             0.636
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         -1.13             0.457
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                                -2.72             0.362
HOME   # 38 TCU                                  +10.67             0.910
AWAY   # 67 Texas                                 +8.47             0.791
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma                             +14.51             0.944
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma State                        +3.58             0.621

Here is Texas Tech's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #225 Houston Baptist             93  67   +21.39    +4.61
HOME   #275 North Texas                 70  43   +24.80    +2.20
HOME   #248 Eastern Kentucky            90  71   +23.13    -4.13
NEUT   # 87 Auburn                      65  67    +8.43   -10.43
NEUT   #138 Utah State                  75  51   +12.69   +11.31
HOME   #309 Idaho State                 91  58   +27.68    +5.32
HOME   #291 Incarnate Word              69  48   +25.86    -4.86
HOME   #120 Rice                        85  84   +14.31   -13.31
HOME   #299 UTSA                        87  50   +26.62   +10.38
HOME   #319 Nicholls State              89  46   +29.00   +14.00
AWAY   #128 Richmond                    79  72    +8.73    -1.73
HOME   #343 Longwood                    91  60   +33.42    -2.42
AWAY   # 17 Iowa State                  56  63    -6.11    -0.89
HOME   #  1 West Virginia               77  76    -6.93    +7.93
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                                -8.97             0.117
HOME   # 42 Kansas State                          +5.49             0.765
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma                              +2.37             0.597
HOME   # 38 TCU                                   +4.87             0.716
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma State                        +4.12             0.635
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                                -8.52             0.151
HOME   #114 LSU                                  +14.04             0.927
AWAY   # 67 Texas                                 +2.67             0.597
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma                              +8.71             0.818
AWAY   # 38 TCU                                   -1.47             0.432
HOME   #  7 Kansas                                -2.63             0.364
HOME   #  9 Baylor                                -2.18             0.396
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                        -13.27             0.111
HOME   # 17 Iowa State                            +0.23             0.508
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma State                        -2.22             0.426
HOME   # 67 Texas                                 +9.01             0.796
AWAY   # 42 Kansas State                          -0.85             0.455