Big 12 projection, Round 2

Texas Tech's home win over West Virginia allowed the Red Raiders to move up
two spots in the projected standings.  Texas' surprising home win over
Oklahoma State allowed the Longhorns to slip ahead of Oklahoma in the
projected standings.  No other changes in the positions.  However, there
were some significant changes in the projected win totals.  West Virginia
lost almost a full game in their projected win total, and although Kansas
won its game, the play was so much below expectation that the Jayhawks'
Sagarin rating suffered, and they lost almost a half game in their projected
win total.  Still, the gap between West Virginia and Kansas narrowed, as
did the gap between Kansas and Baylor.  If only the Clones could have held
on.

Round 3 favors all the home teams.  Kansas hosting Texas Tech is the only
game between two upper division teams.  Lucky we get the Red Raiders in
Allen Field House first, giving them a chance to cool off before the
rematch in Lubbock.  Kansas State is the beneficiary of facing the two
cellar dwellars in their first three games; after that are five consecutive
projected losses for the Wildcats.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  1  West Virginia   14.20  14.75  13.76    1  1   TCU (Sa)   WVU by 15.1
#  7  Kansas          13.34  13.49  13.01    2  0   TT  (Sa)   KU  by  9.0
# 10  Baylor          11.51  12.36  12.69    2  0   OSU (Sa)   BU  by  9.5
# 17  Iowa State       9.97  10.34  10.24    1  1   UT  (Sa)   ISU by 12.1
# 26  Texas Tech       8.00   7.73   8.88    1  1  @KU  (Sa)              
# 37  TCU              7.42   7.25   7.24    1  1  @WVU (Sa)
# 31  Oklahoma State   8.55   7.97   7.17    0  2  @BU  (Sa)
# 41  Kansas State     6.26   6.38   6.95    1  1   OU  (Sa)   KSU by  6.4
# 64  Texas            5.04   4.85   5.44    1  1  @ISU (Sa)              
# 59  Oklahoma         5.71   4.88   4.62    0  2  @KSU (Sa)              

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 2.  Sagarin
holds the early season lead.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Error                                                         1                       1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
OSU over UT      2.4   3.0   1.8   1.0   5.5   1.5   5.7   2.6   2.6         2.0   5.0   5.8   6.2   1.9           -3     5.4   6.0   4.8   4.0   8.5   4.5   8.7   5.6   5.6         5.0   8.0   8.8   9.2   4.9      
BU  over ISU     5.8  11.0   9.3   9.0  14.0   8.0  15.8   7.2  11.6        11.0   9.9   6.2   6.6  18.6            2     3.8   9.0   7.3   7.0  12.0   6.0  13.8   5.2   9.6         9.0   7.9   4.2   4.6  16.6      
TCU over OU      7.5   6.0   7.7  10.5   7.5  10.0  15.1  10.6   9.7         8.0  12.6  11.5  11.9  15.6            3     4.5   3.0   4.7   7.5   4.5   7.0  12.1   7.6   6.7         5.0   9.6   8.5   8.9  12.6      
WVU over TTU     8.2   6.0   4.1   2.0  -1.0   4.5   3.2   8.5   6.1        -5.0   2.9  11.2  10.8  12.9           -1     9.2   7.0   5.1   3.0   0.0   5.5   4.2   9.5   7.1         4.0   3.9  12.2  11.8  13.9      
KU  over KSU    12.6  11.0  10.7  13.5  16.0  12.5   9.4  11.5  10.7         7.0  11.5  12.7  13.1   9.8  12.6      2    10.6   9.0   8.7  11.5  14.0  10.5   7.4   9.5   8.7         5.0   9.5  10.7  11.1   7.8      

total this round                                                                                                         33.5  34.0  30.6  33.0  39.0  33.5  46.2  37.4  37.7        28.0  38.9  44.4  45.6  55.8      
previous total                                                                                                           35.4  45.0  46.3  43.0  43.0  43.5  50.5  38.0  42.8        73.0  53.0  34.8  36.1  29.7
cumulative                                                                                                               68.9  79.0  76.9  76.0  82.0  77.0  96.7  75.4  80.5       101.0  91.9  79.2  81.7  85.5      
per game (total of 10)                                                                                                    6.9   7.9   7.7   7.6   8.2   7.7   9.7   7.5   8.1        10.1   9.2   7.9   8.2   8.6      

All the home courts won in Round 2, despite two projected home losses.
There are no projected road wins in Round 3.

Road wins (3 out of 10)             Home losses                             Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------   -------------------------------------   --------------------
1 Baylor          OU                0 Baylor                                +1 Baylor        
1 Kansas          TCU               0 Iowa State                            +1 Kansas        
1 West Virginia   OSU               0 Kansas                                +1 West Virginia 
0 Iowa State                        0 Kansas State                           0 Iowa State    
0 Kansas State                      0 Texas                                  0 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma                          0 Texas Tech                             0 Texas         
0 Oklahoma State                    0 West Virginia                          0 Texas Tech    
0 TCU                               1 Oklahoma        BU                    -1 Oklahoma      
0 Texas                             1 Oklahoma State  WVU                   -1 Oklahoma State
0 Texas Tech                        1 TCU             KU                    -1 TCU           

The spread in Inconsistency values narrowed somewhat as the conference's
most consistent team played its most below expectation game of the season,
while the conference's least consistent team played within 5 points of
expectation.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +3.78    Kansas            6.93    
TCU             +2.29    Kansas State      7.02    
Baylor          +1.87    Texas Tech        8.34    
Iowa State      +1.62    Baylor            8.38    
Oklahoma State  +1.51    TCU               8.87    
Texas Tech      +1.31    Oklahoma         10.86    
Kansas State    +0.92    Texas            12.93    
Kansas          +0.62    West Virginia    13.15    
Oklahoma        -1.19    Iowa State       14.77    
Texas           -1.43    Oklahoma State   14.86    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas           +0.82 +/- 0.86    Baylor          +0.36 +/- 0.20
Baylor          +0.56 +/- 0.63    Kansas State    +0.29 +/- 0.17
Kansas State    +0.29 +/- 0.48    West Virginia   -0.01 +/- 0.28
Texas Tech      +0.27 +/- 0.57    Texas           -0.05 +/- 0.39
Kansas          +0.05 +/- 0.48    Texas Tech      -0.07 +/- 0.19
TCU             +0.05 +/- 0.69    Oklahoma State  -0.10 +/- 0.30
Oklahoma State  -0.15 +/- 1.15    Oklahoma        -0.21 +/- 0.27
West Virginia   -0.43 +/- 0.90    Iowa State      -0.22 +/- 0.30
Iowa State      -0.91 +/- 1.11    Kansas          -0.26 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma        -0.95 +/- 0.79    TCU             -0.38 +/- 0.25

With TCU at West Virginia in Round 3, it seems reasonable to expect that
the Horned Frogs' strength of schedule will join the top tier.  For the
second consecutive game, Kansas will be facing a team with a really weak
strength of schedule.  Tech's strongest non-conference opponent was
#89 Auburn, and the Red Raiders lost by 2 on a neutral court.  Their
first two conference games were easily their toughest opponents.  They
wilted late in Ames but held on in Lubbock.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Oklahoma State  89.92   Baylor          60.00   Oklahoma State  168.54   West Virginia   +28.21   
West Virginia   89.86   West Virginia   61.64   Kansas          156.64   Texas Tech      +16.36   
Kansas          85.64   Kansas State    61.86   West Virginia   151.50   Iowa State      +15.92   
Iowa State      80.38   Texas Tech      62.29   Oklahoma        148.23   Baylor          +14.85   
Texas Tech      78.64   Iowa State      64.46   Iowa State      144.85   Kansas          +14.64   
TCU             77.00   TCU             65.69   TCU             142.69   Kansas State    +13.71   
Kansas State    75.57   Texas           67.50   Texas Tech      140.93   Oklahoma State  +11.31   
Oklahoma        75.23   Kansas          71.00   Kansas State    137.43   TCU             +11.31   
Baylor          74.85   Oklahoma        73.00   Texas           136.93   Oklahoma         +2.23   
Texas           69.43   Oklahoma State  78.62   Baylor          134.85   Texas            +1.93   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Baylor          76.47 ( 27)
Oklahoma        75.63 ( 36)
Oklahoma State  75.63 ( 37)
Kansas          75.24 ( 43)
Texas           75.16 ( 45)
Iowa State      73.60 ( 85)
TCU             72.73 (122)
West Virginia   68.57 (302)
Kansas State    68.25 (309)
Texas Tech      67.02 (338)