Big 12 projection, Round 1

No change in the projected standings, though the projected number of conference
wins did change.  Of particular interest is how West Virginia opened up a two
game lead, if the numbers are rounded to the nearest win, but it's really just
1.26 games if you don't round.  Of course, ultimately the number of conference
wins has to be an integer.

Round 2 features only a single game between upper division teams, with Baylor
hosting Iowa State.  The closest projected margin is for Oklahoma State at
Texas.  Kansas is projected to have the easiest game of the Round.  Feels
strange to have the Sunflower Showdown so early in the conference season.

                      Init.  Rnd 1
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  1  West Virginia   14.20  14.75    1  0  @TTU (Tu)   WVU by  8.4  projected road win
#  6  Kansas          13.34  13.49    1  0   KSU (Tu)   KU  by 13.1
# 11  Baylor          11.51  12.36    1  0   ISU (We)   BU  by  5.8
# 17  Iowa State       9.97  10.34    1  0  @BU  (We)              
# 29  Oklahoma State   8.55   7.97    0  1  @UT  (We)   OSU by  2.3  projected road win
# 30  Texas Tech       8.00   7.73    0  1   WVU (Tu)              
# 33  TCU              7.42   7.25    0  1   OU  (Tu)   TCU by  7.3
# 43  Kansas State     6.26   6.38    1  0  @KU  (Tu)
# 62  Oklahoma         5.71   4.88    0  1  @TCU (Tu)              
# 64  Texas            5.04   4.85    0  1   OSU (We)              

Interestingly, my trend analysis took honors for best prognostications in
Round 1.  That comes as a surprise, because trends are quite uncertain this
early in the conference season.  This set of predictions was compromised
by a variety of factors.  First, I normally rely on Dunkel to provide the
Vegas line, but Dunkel gave "no line" for the Baylor at Oklahoma game.  I'm
not sure why.  Maybe Dunkel's source didn't have a line posted at the time
his web page was prepared.  Instead, I took the line from vegas.com, which
might be different from Dunkel's usual source.  Second, ESPN's BPI wasn't
available, which will screw up the season average.  Third, I had a
prediction from Don Davis for only the Kansas game, not the other conference
games, so again the season average will be compromised.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Error                                                                                 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Coll  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
KU  over TCU     5.0   8.0   5.5   6.5   8.0   5.5   0.7   2.8   3.9        -1.0   2.4   3.1   2.7   5.3   4.8      6     1.0   2.0   0.5   0.5   2.0   0.5   5.3   3.2   2.1         7.0   3.6   2.9   3.3   0.7   1.2
BU  over OU      5.3   6.0   5.6   5.5   7.5   6.0  15.8   6.0   9.1        -3.0   5.8   8.0   7.6  15.2           26    20.7  20.0  20.4  20.5  18.5  20.0  10.2  20.0  16.9        29.0  20.2  18.0  18.4  10.8      
ISU over TTU     6.3   6.0   2.4   5.0   2.0   5.0  -0.9   4.9   1.5        -1.0   4.5   6.7   7.0  10.2            7     0.7   1.0   4.6   2.0   5.0   2.0   7.9   2.1   5.5         8.0   2.5   0.3   0.0   3.2      
KSU over UT      6.5  12.0  11.0   8.5  13.5   8.0  12.4   8.5  10.7        11.0  11.7   9.2   9.6   7.3            3     3.5   9.0   8.0   5.5  10.5   5.0   9.4   5.5   7.7         8.0   8.7   6.2   6.6   4.3      
WVU over OSU     7.5   4.0   4.2   2.5  10.0   1.0  -0.7   9.8   6.4        -4.0  -1.0   9.6   9.2   6.3           17     9.5  13.0  12.8  14.5   7.0  16.0  17.7   7.2  10.6        21.0  18.0   7.4   7.8  10.7      

total this round                                                                                                         35.4  45.0  46.3  43.0  43.0  43.5  50.5  38.0  42.8        73.0  53.0  34.8  36.1  29.7      
previous total
cumulative                                                                                                               35.4  45.0  46.3  43.0  43.0  43.5  50.5  38.0  42.8        73.0  53.0  34.8  36.1  29.7      
per game (total of  5)                                                                                                    7.1   9.0   9.3   8.6   8.6   8.7  10.1   7.6   8.6        14.6  10.6   7.0   7.2   5.9      

All three projected road wins actually occurred in Round 1.  Two more are
projected for Round 2.

Road wins (3 out of 5)                  Home losses                                 Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------   -----------------------------------------   --------------------
1 Baylor          OU                    0 Baylor                                    +1 Baylor        
1 Kansas          TCU                   0 Iowa State                                +1 Kansas        
1 West Virginia   OSU                   0 Kansas                                    +1 West Virginia 
0 Iowa State                            0 Kansas State                               0 Iowa State    
0 Kansas State                          0 Texas                                      0 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma                              0 Texas Tech                                 0 Texas         
0 Oklahoma State                        0 West Virginia                              0 Texas Tech    
0 TCU                                   1 Oklahoma        BU                        -1 Oklahoma      
0 Texas                                 1 Oklahoma State  WVU                       -1 Oklahoma State
0 Texas Tech                            1 TCU             KU                        -1 TCU           

The spread in Inconsistency values may well be the largest we're seen
in recent seasons.  The first edition of the Sunflower Showdown pits
the two most consistent teams against one another, which is one reason
why Kansas has a 97.6 percent probability of winning.  The Jayhawks
have not played any games more than 13.1 points below expectation,
while Kansas State has played just one game more than 13.1 points
above expectation.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
West Virginia   +4.35    Kansas            6.33    
TCU             +2.55    Kansas State      6.83    
Baylor          +2.05    Texas Tech        8.22    
Oklahoma State  +1.73    Baylor            8.53    
Iowa State      +1.65    TCU               9.05    
Texas Tech      +1.32    Oklahoma         11.02    
Kansas          +0.96    West Virginia    13.14    
Kansas State    +0.72    Texas            13.31    
Oklahoma        -1.34    Oklahoma State   15.04    
Texas           -1.61    Iowa State       15.20    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +0.97 +/- 0.68    Baylor          +0.42 +/- 0.21
Texas           +0.70 +/- 1.01    Kansas State    +0.26 +/- 0.25
Kansas          +0.44 +/- 0.47    West Virginia   +0.12 +/- 0.29
TCU             +0.31 +/- 0.79    Oklahoma State  -0.07 +/- 0.30
Oklahoma State  +0.15 +/- 1.32    Texas           -0.14 +/- 0.42
Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.53    Texas Tech      -0.23 +/- 0.21
West Virginia   -0.12 +/- 1.02    Kansas          -0.24 +/- 0.18
Texas Tech      -0.14 +/- 0.63    Iowa State      -0.29 +/- 0.33
Iowa State      -1.20 +/- 1.28    Oklahoma        -0.32 +/- 0.28
Oklahoma        -1.51 +/- 0.84    TCU             -0.34 +/- 0.26

Strength of schedule rankings have begun their inexorable upward trend,
as conference play has teams playing tougher opponents than during the
non-conference portion of the season.  It'll take a while for the bottom
three to climb into the Top 100, but three more teams joined the ranks
of the double-digit strength-of-schedule rankings.  Two more should do
likewise in another game or two.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
West Virginia   90.77   Baylor          59.58   Oklahoma State  169.17   West Virginia   +30.15   
Oklahoma State  90.67   Kansas State    59.85   Kansas          155.00   Texas Tech      +17.85   
Kansas          85.46   West Virginia   60.62   West Virginia   151.38   Iowa State      +17.08   
Iowa State      81.67   Texas Tech      61.08   Oklahoma        150.83   Baylor          +16.25   
Texas Tech      78.92   Iowa State      64.58   Iowa State      146.25   Kansas          +15.92   
TCU             78.58   TCU             66.25   TCU             144.83   Kansas State    +14.62   
Oklahoma        76.58   Texas           66.46   Texas Tech      140.00   TCU             +12.33   
Baylor          75.83   Kansas          69.54   Baylor          135.42   Oklahoma State  +12.17   
Kansas State    74.46   Oklahoma        74.25   Texas           135.08   Oklahoma         +2.33   
Texas           68.62   Oklahoma State  78.50   Kansas State    134.31   Texas            +2.15   

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          75.16 ( 49)
Baylor          75.15 ( 50)
Oklahoma        74.60 ( 64)
Oklahoma State  74.58 ( 65)
Texas           74.40 ( 71)
TCU             72.27 (134)
Iowa State      71.54 (167)
West Virginia   67.49 (319)
Kansas State    66.54 (336)
Texas Tech      65.77 (346)