predictions for UMKC game

Today's game is currently the easiest remaining game, and that's
unlikely to change, as the next easiest opponent, namely UNLV, is
ranked over 40 spots higher than UMKC.  So the Kansas strength of
schedule will likely bottom out after today's game.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 26.8 point margin, with a 99.9 percent
probability of winning the game.  Both teams play games with
virtually identical total points, so the suggested final score
would be Kansas 91, UMKC 64.  Both teams are performing above
expectation, UMKC by a point more than Kansas.  Both teams are
more consistent than the national average, the Jayhawks being
2 points better than the Kangaroos.  UMKC's best performance was
almost 16 points above expectation against Murray State, but
that's not nearly enough to overcome a 26.8 point margin.
Kansas' worst performance is still the opener against Indiana,
when the Jayhawks played almost 8 points below expectation, which
is nowhere close to enough to lose today's game.  The 99.9 percent
probability appears to be justified.  Kansas still shows a positive
trend of some statistical significance, while UMKC has a negative
trend of some statistical significance.  UMKC has a positive mental
toughness value, courtesy of a strong performance against top-tier
Creighton, while Kansas has a negative mental toughness value,
courtesy of a strong performance against a middlin' Asheville team.
Taken at face value, the margin would increase to 28.5 points.
Sagarin's new "offense-defense" method concurs, with a 28.2 point
margin and a predicted final score of Kansas 96, UMKC 68.  By the
way, West Virginia is Sagarin's new #1 team, ahead of Kansas.

Massey gives Kansas a 32.0 point margin, with a 99 percent
probability of winning the game.  His projected final score
is Kansas 92, UMKC 60.  By the way, Baylor is Massey's new
#3 team, ahead of Kansas.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 14.4 units, as
well as the better adjusted defense by 15.8 units, which combine to
an advantage of 30.2 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is
72.2, which translates into a 21.8 point advantage for Kansas and a
predicted final score of Kansas 86, UMKC 64.

Greenfield doesn't have a prediction for this game.  Is it because
the predicted margin is too big?  Among the key offensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in all eight categories.  Among the key
defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six out of seven
categories, with steals per game being equal for Kansas and UMKC.

Dunkel also doesn't have a prediction for this game.  I've seen that
before when games involve big predicted margins.

Real Time gives Kansas a whopping 53.0 point margin with a final score
of Kansas 90, UMKC 37.  That is, unless you also click on the Scouting
link, where the margin is 40 points, the probability of victory is 99.5
percent, and the final score is Kansas 88, UMKC 48.  Really?  UMKC has
scored at least 68 points in every game so far this season.  Is the
Jayhawk defense really that good?

Collegiate Basketball News is now doing the RPI for this season.
Baylor is #1 with a strength of schedule that ranks #5.  TCU is
#6 with a strength of schedule at #16.  Compare with Kansas at #14
with a strength of schedule at #49.  Interesting, no?

Dolphin isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Don Davis hasn't updated his predictions since the Stanford game, but
the current margin over UMKC is 18.8 points, with a final score of
Kansas 87, UMKC 68.

Colley is now on board with this season.  He only does rankings, not
game predictions.  He still has TCU ahead of Kansas at #12, and Baylor
is his #1 team.  A very RPI-like ranking system.

Whitlock isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

ESPN isn't on board with its BPI this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

The LRMC isn't available for this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 21.0 point margin with a 97 percent
probability of winning the game.  The suggested final score is
Kansas 88, UMKC 67.

The Crotistics web site is back!  But it's still stuck on last season.

There are no common opponents.

Players to watch:  Guard Martez Harrison plays the most minutes, dishes
the most assists, and steals the most balls, but also commits the most
turnovers; however, he has been suspended indefinitely for a violation
of team rules, and because that just happened, it seems unlikely that
he'll be back for today's game.  I think the projected margin just went
up.  Guard LaVell Boyd scores the most points; center Darnell Tillman
grabs the most rebounds; forward Duane Clark, guard Dashawn King, and
forward Kyle Steward share the lead for blocking the most shots, though
Steward also commits the most personal fouls.

The average of the various prognostications is 28.6 points in favor of
Kansas.  Make it Kansas 92, UMKC 63.  With Harrison out, I'd expect the
margin to go even higher.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  7   # 46   #  7   #  5   #  6   +0.7    6.8   +1.34 +/- 0.98   -0.26 +/- 0.26
UMKC           #203   #231   #202   #207   #201   +1.7    8.8   -2.14 +/- 1.51   +0.52 +/- 0.40
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  4  #  6   #  5   # 46   #  4  #  2    #  5    #  1   #  7   # 14   # 49
UMKC           #165  #193   #207   #203   #210  #218    #192    #243   #276   #151   #255
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (1)  # (1)  # (2)  # (2)  # (1)  # (1)  # (1)           7-1     #     #   
UMKC           #(269) #(270) #(248) #(275) #(288) #(279) #(264)          6-3     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # 16  # 48    # (1) #       # (5) #       # (1) #       #  4  #  8    # (1) #   
UMKC           #137  #262    #(267)#       #(266)#       #(239)#       #161  #218    #(239)#   

Here is Kansas' season, with the latest season record projection as 25-6;
there are now five projected losses, including both games with West
Virginia, at Baylor, at Iowa State, and at Kentucky; projected double-digit
wins for the next four non-conference games, then lots of nail-biters:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 18 Indiana                     99 103    +3.68    -7.68
NEUT   #  6 Duke                        77  75    -0.52    +2.52
HOME   #155 Siena                       86  65   +23.95    -2.95
HOME   #118 UAB                         83  63   +20.89    -0.89
HOME   # 60 Georgia                     65  54   +15.32    -4.32
HOME   #149 NC Asheville                95  57   +23.39   +14.61
HOME   #189 Long Beach State            91  61   +25.98    +4.02
HOME   # 55 Stanford                    89  74   +14.66    +0.34
HOME   #202 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +26.80             0.999
HOME   # 76 Nebraska                             +17.19             0.970
HOME   # 70 Davidson                             +16.41             0.964
AWAY   #157 UNLV                                 +18.01             0.976
AWAY   # 39 TCU                                   +5.55             0.755
HOME   # 42 Kansas State                         +12.31             0.952
HOME   # 36 Texas Tech                           +11.30             0.937
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma                              +7.14             0.784
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma State                       +11.15             0.906
AWAY   #  8 Iowa State                            -2.22             0.380
HOME   # 73 Texas                                +16.72             0.962
AWAY   #  1 West Virginia                         -6.36             0.244
AWAY   #  4 Kentucky                              -4.19             0.324
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +5.34             0.715
HOME   #  8 Iowa State                            +4.00             0.709
AWAY   # 42 Kansas State                          +6.09             0.795
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                            +5.08             0.754
HOME   #  1 West Virginia                         -0.14             0.494
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                -0.88             0.463
HOME   # 39 TCU                                  +11.77             0.929
AWAY   # 73 Texas                                +10.50             0.867
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma                             +13.36             0.929
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma State                        +4.93             0.720

Here is UMKC's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 21 Creighton                   82  89   -21.85   +14.85
HOME   #285 Drake                       68  62    +7.93    -1.93
AWAY   #211 Bowling Green               71  69    -2.80    +4.80
NEUT   #130 Murray State                85  74    -4.73   +15.73
NEUT   #165 Green Bay                   77  95    -2.33   -15.67
Div2        Arkansas Monticello         97  82
HOME   #272 SE Missouri State(SEMO)     86  75    +7.21    +3.79
HOME   #216 South Dakota                84  82    +3.88    -1.88
AWAY   #203 South Dakota State          68  77    -3.09    -5.91
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                               -26.80             0.001