predictions for Georgia game

The last 7:10 of the Siena game were a thing of beauty.  The first
9:57 of the UAB game were a thing of beauty.  Then the Jayhawks
apparently engaged the cruise control, getting outscored the rest
of the way.  Still, the final margin was bigger than projected,
though not by much, and within the range of the various predictions.
Not too surprisingly, we get Georgia today, which will be good for
the strength of schedule rating.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 13.9 point margin, with a 100 percent
probability of winning the game.  Say what?  How come yesterday's
larger predicted margin had a smaller probability of victory?  Well,
there comes a time when you switch from using the statistics of
small numbers to the statistics of the numbers you have.  More
specifically, when a team has played only one game, for example,
you can't compute an inconsistency value, and although you can
compute it after a team has played two games, it doesn't mean much.
So for the first few games of the season, I default to using an
11 point inconsistency value, which is basically the national average
of the "width" of the bell-shaped curve on the difference between
actual and predicted margins.  Eventually, though, it becomes better
to use tha actual inconsistencies of the two teams.  It's an arbitrary
decision as to when to switch, and my software was designed to do so
starting with the fifth game.  Turns out the inconsistency for Kansas
is a mere 3.8 points, while the inconsistency for Georgia is a mere
4.4 points, both way way under the national average.  So a 13.9 point
margin is many sigma, enough to get the area under that bell-shaped
curve over 99.95 percent, thereby getting rounded to 100 percent in
my table.  To be sure, the probability is not 100 percent; we're still
in the realm of small number statistics in this case, which is why I'm
not spending too much time discussing the performance, trend, and mental
toughness statistics, though I will note that Kansas has the advantage
in all of them.  The average total points for the two teams is 151.4,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 83, Georgia 69.

Massey gives Kansas an 11.0 point margin, with an 83 percent
probability of winning the game.  His projected final score
is Kansas 78, Georgia 67.  That's a more realistic probability.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 9.1 units, as
well as the better adjusted defense by 5.6 units, which combine to
an advantage of 14.7 units for Kansas.  The average adjusted tempo is
71.45, which translates into a 10.5 point advantage for Kansas and a
predicted final score of Kansas 78, Georgia 68.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 13.5 point margin, with 147 total points,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 80, Georgia 67.  Among the key
offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in all eight categories.
Among key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of the
seven categories; Georgia limits opponents to fewer points per game,
grabs more defensive rebounds per game, and commits fewer personal
fouls per game.

Dunkel favors Kansas by 22.5 points, and he claims that there is no
Vegas line.  Well, you can't establish a line until you know who the
opponent is, so Dunkel apparently didn't wait for Vegas to get its
act together following the UAB game.  Dunkel's total points is 153,
suggesting a final score of Kansas 88, Georgia 65.

Real Time hasn't gotten its act together yet.  It doesn't have the
Georgia game in the database.

It's still too early for the RPI.

Dolphin isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Calling Don Davis.  Will the DPPI be back for this season?

Colley isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Whitlock isn't on board with this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

ESPN isn't on board with its BPI this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

The LRMC isn't available for this season yet, as usual.  I'm using last
season's rankings in the table below.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 13.0 point margin with a 91 percent
probability of winning the game.  The suggested final score is
Kansas 82, Georgia 69.

The Crotistics web site is back!  But it's still stuck on last season.

There are no common opponents, though it will produce one for the next
game.  I'm leaving this text here as a placeholder to remind me to
check for common opponents in the future.

Players to watch:  Forward Yante Maten plays the most minutes, scores
the most points, grabs the most rebounds, and blocks the most shots,
while also commiting the most turnovers and the most personal fouls.
Guard J. J. Frazier dishes the most assists, and is their leading
thief, while being tied with Maten for most minutes played.  Guard
Juwan Parker is tied with Maten for most personal fouls per game.
Looks like a pretty one-dimensional team.  Shut down Maten, and you
should be in control.

The average of the various prognostications is 12.7 points in favor of
Kansas.  Make it Kansas 82, Georgia 69, identical to the Seven Overtimes
prediction.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  8   # 33   #  9   #  6   #  6   -0.8    3.8   +0.80 +/- 1.99   +0.06 +/- 0.20
Georgia        # 60   #137   # 66   # 56   # 56   -2.2    4.4   +0.34 +/- 2.41   -0.05 +/- 0.35
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  5  # 10   #  6   # 27   #  3  #  2    #  3    #  1   #  1   #      #   
Georgia        # 48  # 25   # 61   #133   # 68  # 59    # 68    # 49   # 13   #      #   
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (1)  # (1)  # (2)  # (2)  # (1)  # (1)  # (1)           3-1     #     #   
Georgia        #(60)  #(59)  #(72)  #(65)  #(59)  #(58)  #(61)           3-1     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # (2) #       # (1) #       # (5) #       # (1) #       #  7  # 18    # (1) #   
Georgia        #(57) #       #(59) #       #(52) #       #(71) #       # 64  #178    #(82) #   

Here is Kansas' season, and now that we know who the opponent will be today,
we can project the season record as 25-6 based on the current ratings, with
projected losses at Iowa State, at West Virginia, and at Kentucky:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 12 Indiana                     99 103    +0.95    -4.95
NEUT   #  4 Duke                        77  75    -2.08    +4.08
HOME   #160 Siena                       86  65   +22.99    -1.99
HOME   #119 UAB                         83  63   +20.27    -0.27
HOME   # 66 Georgia                              +13.89             1.000
HOME   #151 NC Asheville                         +22.60             0.997
HOME   #199 Long Beach State                     +25.04             0.999
HOME   # 48 Stanford                             +11.62             0.921
HOME   #203 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +25.37             0.999
HOME   # 87 Nebraska                             +16.96             0.980
HOME   # 72 Davidson                             +14.99             0.966
AWAY   #155 UNLV                                 +16.78             0.979
AWAY   # 68 TCU                                   +8.21             0.880
HOME   # 58 Kansas State                         +13.21             0.983
HOME   # 46 Texas Tech                           +11.26             0.964
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma                              +2.25             0.608
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma State                       +11.09             0.931
AWAY   # 10 Iowa State                            -2.66             0.331
HOME   # 53 Texas                                +12.44             0.926
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia                         -5.13             0.267
AWAY   #  5 Kentucky                              -4.34             0.300
HOME   # 28 Baylor                                +8.83             0.850
HOME   # 10 Iowa State                            +3.32             0.707
AWAY   # 58 Kansas State                          +7.23             0.877
AWAY   # 46 Texas Tech                            +5.28             0.801
HOME   #  3 West Virginia                         +0.85             0.541
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                                +2.85             0.631
HOME   # 68 TCU                                  +14.19             0.979
AWAY   # 53 Texas                                 +6.46             0.774
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma                              +8.23             0.843
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma State                        +5.11             0.753

Here is Georgia's season to date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 40 Clemson                     64  74    -6.08    -3.92
HOME   #151 NC Asheville                60  46   +11.70    +2.30
HOME   #191 Furman                      84  78   +13.50    -7.50
NEUT   #135 George Washington           81  73    +7.51    +0.49
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                               -13.89             0.000