Does Bragg hold the key to our success next year?

In just looking at our roster for next year, with the assumption that Diallo is gone, it strikes me that our capacity to reach elite success (meaning not just #13 but a FF run) would appear to center very acutely on the development of Carlton Bragg.

Unless Dwight Coleby is some hidden gem waiting to burst out, or we shock the world by out-maneuvering UK and Duke for Marques Bolden (who looks to me to be the only proven highly-rated scorer left among freshman bigs), Carlton is going to have to be "the guy" when it comes to interior point production.

Lucas clearly will take up the bulk of minutes at the 5 (Azu is going to be a 2-year project, helping to back up Landen, based on what I've read and also saw last night, in reviewing the McD game). We can expect some offensive improvement with Lucas, I would imagine, over the summer and as he leverages his newfound role and confidence for his senior year. However, I don't think we can bank on anything more than 10-12 ppg from him, barring some breakout.

Lightfoot is a newbie who has to put on muscle, doesn't project as a PF, and cannot be expected to step right in with serious point production.

That leaves Bragg. And let's be real here. KU can't be a "force" next year just based on our two polished guards (Frank and Devonte) plus whomever takes up the wing spot (whether it's Svi or the solid recruit Jackson, or both).* We HAVE to get production inside, alongside Lucas, for the Self system to work and thrive.

This scares me a bit, if only because it significantly reduces our margin for error--in terms of Bragg's development, as well as the threat of a fluke injury over the course of the season, etc.

As for Bragg himself, obviously the kid has great upside. I'll leave his defensive game aside for now (clearly he has serious holes there that he MUST work on), since this post is about KU's need for point production inside to offset Perry's loss. Carlton has a nice face-up game at the elbow and key, and he's an improving rebounder with decent hands to finish at the rim. His energy is great and he runs the floor nicely. However, to be a more complete scoring threat, he HAS to beef up considerably and develop a back-to-the-rim post-up game, replete with all of the footwork, moves, and finishing touch that goes with that.

In my mind, this must be priority 1 for Self, the staff, and Hudy in the offseason and going forward. They need to make it their mission to accelerate his development as a scoring assassin and force, while not applying undue pressure (explicitly) in the form of telling him that he holds the key to our success going forward. He does hold the key, however (IMHO), given what we have in left in the stable and what our most probable recruiting additions would appear to be.**

That's a lot to ask of a rising sophomore, but I'm already seeing this as a truly pivotal development to watch.

I'm curious if others see it the same way, when you look holistically at our roster and assume that the big dogs out there (Duke, UK, et al.) are going to be better next year than they were this year.

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(Footnotes)

* I like Svi and his upside, but it would sure make me feel a LOT better about KU's chances for elite success next year if we also land Josh Jackson. We lacked a killer go-to player this year, and it ultimately bit us in the rear against Villanova. Jackson is that kind of guy, with much better speed and fast-twitch than Svi (and he can defend, it appears, before even being coached by Self). As such, he would instantly plug right into Selden's slot--plus he's big enough (at 6'7) to not just operate as a strong 3 but also a psuedo-stretch-4. He will be a matchup nightmare for most opposing wings, given his size and explosiveness toward the rim. That being said, however, even if we land him and retain Svi, we can't assume that they will give us even more than what Selden did, production-wise. Offset him (equally), yes...or so we hope. But we just can't assume it will be an upgrade. So let's call that one a wash, if we get Jackson.

** Thon Maker is not the answer for points production at the 4 spot. Based on what I've read of him, if we land him and then if he's cleared by the NCAA (there are potential issues there), he's a 7'0 rim protector with some capacity to finish close-in, but he's definitely not a developed post-up player on the block (yet). Jarrett Allen is a 6'10 defender and low post denier whose offensive game has not yet caught up with the other end. Marques Bolden is the only guy left that is a) ranked highly at the PF slot; and b) could come in with an established, relatively impressive scoring game on the block. He would be a great "get" to go along with Bragg in replacing Perry's lost points. However, it appears that we don't have a snowball's chance of landing him at this point over UK or Duke. Thus, we're back to needing Bragg to develop, and develop quickly.

If get Josh Jackson, IMHO will more than make up for Selden.

Concur, as noted in the post, but that's not my focus or concern here. It's replacing all of that production from Perry at the 4,* and improving our scoring overall inside.

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* Notwithstanding the Villanova debacle (on that front) and very untimely outlier

I wouldn't yet classify Bragg as a guy who can shoot out to the 3, based on only four made 3-pointers all year. We can hope that becomes part of his game, but the sample size is far too low to know for sure. Still, he has other facets that are solid. What we need is some more "power forward" flavor to his game--which means beefing up and developing back-to-the-hoop finishing moves. Hopefully far better than what we got from Perry on that score, I might add. (It was a hole in our attack this year, and will be next year barring Bragg's evolution in that area)

As for Maker, everything I've seen and heard on him projects him as an above-the-rim finisher (positive), a good floor runner (good), and someone who can finish in stride (also positive). His reach is such that he can hit some soaring shots over defenders as well. However, his best rap is as a rim protector and on D, and until he comes in and proves himself as a legit scoring threat against higher-level college competition, we won't know how he'll fare. I do take your points, though, and that makes me feel better about him as someone augmenting Carlton--and also spelling Lucas, along with Azu.

Thanks for making me feel a bit better on this score--contingent, of course, on us landing Maker AND that befuddling, knuckle-dragging overlord organization approving him to play...and doing so ON TIME, unlike Diallo.

Rock Chalk...

Good stuff. Getting a bit more excited now...

Assuming we have 4 schollies to fill, and that we don't have a shot at Bolden to round things out, my hope is for something like this:

* Josh Jackson (elite wing; plug and play at the 3 spot)

* Thon Maker (7'0 gazelle; augments Bragg and Lucas at the 4/5 spot and also serves as a ridiculously sized stretch 4)

* Deshawn Corprew (4-star 6'5 wing/SF who would be a nice addition for depth and would likely grow into a starter by year 2)

* An unknown, strong developmental PG (Frank leaves next year, and what do we do if Devonte goes off in his junior campaign, propelling himself into NBA discussions?)

The above would be on top of Azu and Lightfoot already coming in...

Here's a mixtape of Corprew, who from the scouting reports would appear to have the aggressive penetration skills of a Keith Langford and the sculptable body type of a Wayne Selden:

I guess the answer to your ? is (based in part on whether we get Jackson and Senex's take on Maker) no, Bragg doesn't hold the key to KU's success.

And I would concur, contingent upon 3 things happening:

* Landing Jackson

* Landing Maker and having him cleared from day 1

* Maker being the scoring threat out of the gate (against college competition) that he appears to be

All 3 seem very plausible or viable today. So let's cross our fingers...