×
Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Odds of Winning the NCAA Tourney
8 years 2 months ago - 8 years 2 months ago #5704
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
I have taken the latest Joe Lunardi bracket from ESPN and applied my DPPI ratings to determine the odds of each team winning the NCAA Tourney. As you can see, Michigan St. and Kansas have equal probability of winning at 13%. KU has a 36% chance of making it to the Final Four while Michigan St. has a 33.5% probability. West Virginia and Indiana round out the likely Final Four. Below the table is the bracket generated by my DPPI probability. I will update once the actual bracket is set and then after every round.
**********************************Probability of Winning*********************************
ID Conference Region Sd Team RD1 RD2 RD3 RD4 FF NC
** *************** ******* ** ************* ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** *****
1 Big 12 Midwest 1 Kansas 97.9% 73.9% 53.2% 36.3% 22.3% 13.0%
63 Big Ten East 2 Michigan Stat 91.9% 71.9% 50.6% 33.5% 21.1% 13.0%
27 Big 12 West 3 West Virginia 84.9% 58.9% 41.2% 25.2% 15.0% 8.4%
43 Big Ten South 3 Indiana 87.8% 61.5% 40.4% 23.7% 13.0% 7.2%
49 Big East East 1 Villanova 95.9% 59.7% 40.7% 21.2% 11.7% 6.3%
17 ACC West 1 North Carolin 92.1% 62.5% 36.0% 19.8% 10.6% 5.2%
33 ACC South 1 Virginia 92.6% 63.7% 35.8% 19.8% 10.1% 5.2%
39 SEC South 4 Kentucky 80.6% 53.5% 31.7% 18.2% 9.7% 5.2%
23 Big Ten West 4 Purdue 75.2% 52.9% 31.3% 17.9% 9.9% 5.2%
15 Big East Midwest 2 Xavier 82.3% 54.7% 34.3% 17.3% 8.9% 4.3%
59 ACC East 3 Miami (FL) 78.2% 56.5% 26.7% 14.7% 7.6% 3.8%
47 Big 12 South 2 Oklahoma 82.2% 52.5% 25.8% 12.8% 5.9% 2.8%
31 Pac-12 West 2 Oregon 81.5% 52.0% 23.8% 11.5% 5.3% 2.3%
51 Missouri Valley East 8 Wichita State 67.4% 30.5% 18.9% 8.6% 4.2% 1.9%
7 ACC Midwest 4 Duke 66.2% 38.1% 15.0% 7.6% 3.4% 1.4%
11 Pac-12 Midwest 3 Utah 67.7% 36.0% 17.5% 7.3% 3.1% 1.2%
5 Pac-12 Midwest 5 Arizona 67.7% 36.4% 13.7% 6.7% 2.8% 1.1%
13 ACC Midwest 7 Notre Dame 68.3% 30.7% 15.9% 6.3% 2.6% 1.0%
55 SEC East 4 Texas A&M 71.6% 40.2% 16.2% 6.2% 2.5% 1.0%
53 Pac-12 East 5 California 67.6% 37.6% 15.0% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9%
41 Big 12 South 6 Baylor 65.1% 25.9% 13.1% 5.7% 2.2% 0.9%
26 SEC West 11 Vanderbilt 55.9% 21.7% 11.6% 5.1% 2.2% 0.9%
21 Big 12 West 5 Iowa State 66.6% 27.2% 11.9% 5.0% 2.0% 0.7%
45 Big East South 7 Seton Hall 63.8% 30.0% 12.1% 4.9% 1.8% 0.7%
9 Big Ten Midwest 6 Iowa 50.6% 26.7% 12.3% 4.8% 1.9% 0.7%
37 Big Ten South 5 Maryland 55.5% 23.6% 10.7% 4.7% 1.8% 0.7%
10 West Coast Midwest 11 Gonzaga 49.4% 25.9% 11.7% 4.5% 1.8% 0.6%
4 American Midwest 9 Cincinnati 57.4% 16.3% 8.0% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5%
19 SEC West 8 South Carolin 54.0% 20.4% 8.5% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
30 ACC West 10 Pittsburgh 55.9% 25.2% 8.8% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%
36 Atlantic 10 South 9 VCU 54.8% 20.3% 8.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4%
25 Big Ten West 6 Wisconsin 44.1% 14.8% 7.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%
62 Big East East 10 Butler 56.5% 15.8% 7.0% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3%
38 Ivy League South 12 Yale 44.5% 16.6% 6.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
57 Big 12 East 6 Texas 58.8% 22.0% 6.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
20 Pac-12 West 9 USC 46.0% 15.8% 6.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
35 Big 12 South 8 Texas Tech 45.2% 14.8% 5.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2%
29 Big East West 7 Providence 44.1% 17.4% 5.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 Pac-12 Midwest 8 Colorado 42.6% 9.7% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
61 Atlantic 10 East 7 Dayton 43.5% 10.1% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
52 Atlantic 10 East 9 Saint Joseph' 32.6% 9.5% 4.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
8 Southland Midwest 13 Stephen F. Au 33.8% 13.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
24 Missouri Valley West 13 UNI 24.8% 11.1% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
46 Pac-12 South 10 Oregon State 36.2% 12.4% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1%
42 Mountain West South 11 San Diego Sta 34.9% 9.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
12 Big West Midwest 14 Hawaii 32.3% 11.4% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
6 Sun Belt Midwest 12 Little Rock 32.3% 11.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
58 American East 11 Temple 41.2% 12.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
14 Atlantic 10 Midwest 10 St. Bonaventu 31.7% 9.0% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
54 Summit League East 12 South Dakota 32.4% 12.4% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
22 Mid-American West 12 Akron 33.4% 8.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
60 Colonial East 14 UNCW 21.8% 9.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
40 America East South 13 Stony Brook 19.4% 6.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
56 Southern East 13 Chattanooga 28.4% 9.8% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
48 WAC South 15 New Mexico St 17.8% 5.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
28 MAAC West 14 Iona 15.1% 4.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
16 Horizon League Midwest 15 Green Bay 17.7% 5.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
32 Big Sky West 15 Weber State 18.5% 5.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
44 Conference USA South 14 Middle Tennes 12.2% 3.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
64 Big South East 15 UNC Asheville 8.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
18 Atlantic Sun West 15 FGCU 7.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
34 SWAC South 15 Texas Souther 7.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
50 Northeast East 15 Fairleigh Dic 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Share this page:
8 years 2 months ago #5727
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
That strengthens KU's bracket and reduces our probability. We now have an 11.5% chance of winning it all. Just for reference, if we make it into week 2 (Sweet 16) our probability increases to 17.7% chance of winning it all and roughly a 46% chance of making the Final Four.
**********************************Probability of Winning*********************************
ID Conference Region Sd Team RD1 RD2 RD3 RD4 FF NC
** *************** ******* ** ************* ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** *****
63 Big Ten East 2 Michigan Stat 91.9% 71.1% 48.8% 32.8% 20.6% 12.7%
1 Big 12 Midwest 1 Kansas 96.6% 65.2% 46.9% 32.1% 19.7% 11.5%
27 Big 12 West 3 West Virginia 84.9% 60.4% 42.2% 25.8% 15.4% 8.7%
43 Big Ten South 3 Indiana 87.8% 66.7% 43.6% 25.6% 14.1% 7.9%
49 Big East East 1 Villanova 96.9% 70.7% 48.2% 25.0% 13.8% 7.4%
39 SEC South 4 Kentucky 80.6% 53.5% 31.7% 18.3% 9.8% 5.3%
33 ACC South 1 Virginia 92.3% 63.7% 35.8% 19.9% 10.2% 5.3%
17 ACC West 1 North Carolin 92.4% 61.2% 35.2% 19.3% 10.3% 5.1%
23 Big Ten West 4 Purdue 75.2% 52.9% 31.1% 17.7% 9.9% 5.1%
15 Big East Midwest 2 Xavier 82.3% 54.3% 34.1% 17.1% 8.8% 4.3%
59 ACC East 3 Miami (FL) 78.2% 51.1% 24.1% 13.6% 7.0% 3.5%
47 Big 12 South 2 Oklahoma 82.2% 51.0% 25.8% 12.8% 5.9% 2.8%
31 Pac-12 West 2 Oregon 81.5% 52.7% 24.2% 11.7% 5.4% 2.3%
3 Missouri Valley Midwest 8 Wichita State 62.9% 24.3% 14.6% 8.1% 3.9% 1.8%
7 ACC Midwest 4 Duke 66.2% 38.1% 14.6% 7.4% 3.3% 1.3%
11 Pac-12 Midwest 3 Utah 67.7% 36.0% 17.6% 7.2% 3.1% 1.2%
5 Pac-12 Midwest 5 Arizona 67.7% 36.4% 13.3% 6.6% 2.8% 1.1%
55 SEC East 4 Texas A&M 71.6% 40.2% 17.2% 6.6% 2.7% 1.1%
26 SEC West 11 Vanderbilt 62.8% 24.4% 13.0% 5.8% 2.5% 1.0%
57 Big 12 East 6 Baylor 68.1% 31.7% 12.0% 5.6% 2.3% 1.0%
53 Pac-12 East 5 California 67.6% 37.6% 16.0% 6.0% 2.4% 1.0%
13 ACC Midwest 7 Notre Dame 64.7% 29.1% 15.1% 6.0% 2.4% 0.9%
37 Big Ten South 5 Maryland 55.5% 23.6% 10.7% 4.7% 1.9% 0.8%
21 Big 12 West 5 Iowa State 66.6% 27.2% 11.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.7%
9 Big Ten Midwest 6 Iowa 50.6% 26.7% 12.3% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7%
45 Big East South 7 Seton Hall 56.9% 26.7% 11.2% 4.6% 1.7% 0.7%
10 West Coast Midwest 11 Gonzaga 49.4% 25.9% 11.7% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6%
29 Big Ten West 7 Wisconsin 64.4% 29.8% 10.9% 4.2% 1.6% 0.5%
36 American South 9 Cincinnati 58.9% 22.4% 9.1% 3.7% 1.3% 0.5%
20 Atlantic 10 West 9 VCU 50.0% 18.8% 7.9% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
19 SEC West 8 South Carolin 50.0% 18.8% 7.8% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4%
38 Ivy League South 12 Yale 44.5% 16.6% 6.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
62 West Coast East 10 Saint Mary's 56.3% 16.2% 7.0% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4%
4 Big East Midwest 9 Butler 37.1% 10.1% 4.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
41 Big 12 South 6 Texas 55.7% 17.4% 7.1% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
46 Pac-12 South 10 USC 43.1% 17.5% 6.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
51 Big 12 East 8 Texas Tech 51.0% 15.0% 6.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
52 Atlantic 10 East 9 Saint Joseph' 49.0% 14.0% 6.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
61 Pac-12 East 7 Colorado 43.7% 10.5% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
25 Atlantic 10 West 6 Dayton 37.2% 10.3% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
35 Big East South 8 Providence 41.1% 12.5% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
24 Missouri Valley West 13 UNI 24.8% 11.1% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
8 Southland Midwest 13 Stephen F. Au 33.8% 13.9% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
42 Mountain West South 11 San Diego Sta 44.3% 11.9% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
14 Pac-12 Midwest 10 Oregon State 35.3% 11.2% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
12 Big West Midwest 14 Hawaii 32.3% 11.4% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%
6 Sun Belt Midwest 12 Little Rock 32.3% 11.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
54 Summit League East 12 South Dakota 32.4% 12.4% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
58 American East 11 Temple 31.9% 9.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
30 Atlantic 10 West 10 St. Bonaventu 35.6% 11.8% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
22 Mid-American West 12 Akron 33.4% 8.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
60 Colonial East 14 UNCW 21.8% 7.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
40 America East South 13 Stony Brook 19.4% 6.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
56 Southern East 13 Chattanooga 28.4% 9.8% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
28 MAAC West 14 Iona 15.1% 4.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
48 WAC South 15 New Mexico St 17.8% 4.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
16 Horizon League Midwest 15 Green Bay 17.7% 5.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
44 Conference USA South 14 Middle Tennes 12.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
32 Big Sky West 15 Weber State 18.5% 5.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
64 Big South East 15 UNC Asheville 8.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
34 Atlantic Sun South 16 FGCU 7.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
18 SWAC West 16 Texas Souther 7.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 Ohio Valley Midwest 16 Austin Peay 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
8 years 2 months ago #5806
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
The brackets are pretty well balanced as you can see from the top table.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.