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Games of interest in conference this weekend...

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NotOstertag
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8 years 1 month ago #5339 by NotOstertag

KU's obviously got things locked up, so the only thing "interesting" vs. ISU is hoping for our guys to keep our undefeated streak at AFH intact and send the seniors out in style. I'm confident we'll do so.

So with that in mind, there are only a couple of interesting games to look at within the conference as I see it.

The biggest of the bunch is WVU traveling to Baylor. Baylor could very well win this one, which could leave OU and WVU tied for 2nd place at 12-6 (assuming OU wins at TCU...which they should). In either case, that would put WVU and OU in the 2 and 3 seed spots in the conf tourney, which means that we wouldn't see them until the final regardless (if at all).

The OTHER game that could shake things up (slightly) is Texas @OSU. Texas should win this one, and if they do, they'll move up from a T-4 (with ISU and BU) to T-4 with BU alone. Not sure how the seeding works, but the 4/5 seeds are our 2nd round foes in the Big 12 Tourney.

If this pans out ISU drops to 6th place and is in the other side of the conference tourney bracket.

Bottom 4 teams don't change in any scenario, so Tech, KSU, OSU and TCU will all play each other in the 1st round.

If my predictions pan out, we'll have a tie for 2nd in the league and a tie for 4th...with the rest pretty much spilling out as they sit today. I'm sure that some crazier scenarios could be put forward, but this is what I see as a likely outcome. Of course, our resident statisticians will be able to provide better predictions than my lowly eyeball test.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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HawkErrant
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b82, g84 Lift the chorus...

8 years 1 month ago - 8 years 1 month ago #5341 by HawkErrant

Filling in all the possibilities as of 2016-03-03.

BLUF (or tl;dr for the “textgens”)
1. MOST SALIENT POINT
If OU wins, they and WVU are in the bracket opposite KU and can't meet the Jayhawks until the final.
OU could drop to a 4 seed if they lose.

2. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO (my personal favorite) –

KU>ISU, WVU>BU, OU>TCU and tu>OSU this Saturday.

WVU=(2),  OU=(3) and ISU=(6) on the opposite side of the bracket and can meet KU in title game;
Winner of tu=(4) v  BU=(5) can meet KU in the Game 7 semifinal, 
assuming KU beats the winner of Game 1 between KSU=(8 ) v OSU=(9) in Game 4 (KU's first).

3. BUT –

IF WVU loses and OU wins, OU=(2), WVU=(3)
AND –
IF OU<TCU, things get squirrelly depending on what BU, ISU and tu do.
OU could still end up the (3), but could drop to a (4).
ISU could be (3), (5) or (6)
BU or tu could be a (4), (5) or (6)

===========================================

THE BRACKET AS OF TODAY 2016-03-03

Seeds 1,7,8,9 and 10 are set.

BIG 12 STANDINGS

UPDATED THRU WEDNESDAY 2016-03-02 10:15 PM
AP Sch 	B12   GB  Pct.	TOTAL Pct.  Strk COMMENTS
 1 KU	14-3  -- .824	26-4  .867  W10  B12 CHAMPS!
10 WVU	12-5   2 .706	23-7  .767  W3
 6 OU	11-6   3 .647	23-6  .793  W1
19 BU	10-7   4 .588	21-9  .700  L1
21 ISU	10-7   4 .588	21-9  .700  W2
23 tu	10-7   4 .588	19-11 .633  L1
   TT	 8-9   6 .471   18-11 .621  L2
   KSU	 5-12  9 .294	16-14 .533  W1
   OSU	 3-14 11 .176	12-18 .400  L5
   TCU	 2-15 12 .118	11-19 .367  L6

REMAINING BIG 12 GAMES (all times are Central)

FRI OSU v tu Stillwater, OK  8:00 p.m. ESPN2
SAT TCU v OU Fort Worth, TX 12:00 p.m. ESPNEWS
SAT BU v WVU Waco, TX        1:00 p.m. ESPN
SAT TT v KSU Lubbock, TX     2:00 p.m. ESPNEWS
SAT KU v ISU Lawrence, KS    3:00 p.m. ESPN

THE POSSIBILITIES IN DETAIL IF OU WINS

a. WVU > BU, WVU = (2) seed no matter what anyone else does.
b. OU > TCU,  WVU >@BU, OU = (3) seed
c. OU > TCU,  WVU <@BU = a tie for second place in the standings.
    OU = (2) (2-0 v WVU)
    WVU = (3)
       In (b) or (c), WVU and OU can't see KU until title game.
d. In (b)[ OU > TCU + WVU >@BU], if tu and ISU lose to join BU @10-8
    BU = (4) (3-1 v ISU + tu)  KU can play in Game 7
    tu = (5) (2-2 v ISU + BU)  KU can play in Game 7
    ISU = (6) (1-3 v BU + tu)
e. In (b)[ OU > TCU + WVU >@BU], if tu wins (11-7), but ISU loses to join BU @10-8
    tu = (4) at 11-7
    BU = (5) (2-0 v ISU)
    ISU =(6)

f. In (b)[ OU > TCU + WVU >@BU], if tu and ISU tie @11-7 win and BU is 10-8
    ISU = (4) (1-1 v tu, 1-1 v KU)
    tu = (5) (1-1 v ISU, 0-2 v KU)
    BU = (6)
g. In (b)[ OU > TCU + WVU >@BU], if ISU (11-7) wins and tu loses to tie BU at 10-8
    ISU =(4)
    tu = (5) (1-1 v BU, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU) 
    BU = (6) (1-1 v tu, 0-2 v KU, 0-2 v WVU) 
h. In (c)[ OU > TCU + WVU <@BU], if tu and ISU lose to tie @10-8
    BU = (4) @11-7
    ISU = (5) (1-1 v tu, 1-1 v KU)
    tu = (6) (1-1 v ISU, 0-2 v KU)

i. In (c)[ OU > TCU + WVU <@BU], if tu wins to tie BU @11-7and ISU drops to 10-8
    tu = (4) (1-1 v BU, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU)
    BU = (5) (1-1 v tu, 0-2 v KU, 1-1 v WVU)
    ISU = (6)
j. In (c)[ OU > TCU + WVU <@BU], if ISU wins to tie BU @11-7and tu drops to 10-8
    BU = (4) (2-0 v ISU)
    ISU = (5)
    tu = (6)
k. In (c)[ OU > TCU + WVU <@BU], if tu and ISU win to tie BU @11-7
    BU = (4) (3-1 v ISU+tu)
    tu = (5) (2-2 v BU+ISU)
    ISU = (6) (1-3 v BU+tu)

IF OU LOSES

l. If OU loses, things get really squirrelly.
 1. If ISU, BU and tu all lose, 
     OU = (3) (all alone in 3rd place; BU, ISU and tu tied for 4th)
     BU = (4) (3-1 v ISU + tu)
     tu = (5)  (2-2 v ISU + BU)
     ISU = (6) (1-3 v BU + tu)
 2. ISU, BU and tu all win = a 4 way 11-7 log jam for 3rd place.
  Tm↓ vs → OU  tu   BU   ISU
   OU      x   1-1  2-0  1-1  4-2 Best record between the 4 = (3) seed
   tu     1-1   x   1-1  1-1  3-3 tied for 2nd best record; 1-1 v BU, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU = (4) 
   BU     0-2  1-1   x   2-0  3-3 2nd best record; 1-1 v tu, 0-2 v KU, 1-1 v WVU = (5) seed
   ISU    1-1  1-1  0-2   x   2-4 worst record vs group; 2-0 vs KU doesn't help; = (6) seed

 3. If ISU and BU win, tu loses (all alone at 10-8)
   OU =(3) (3-1 v BU+ISU)
   BU = (4) (2-2 v ISU+OU)
   ISU = (5) (1-3 v BU+OU)
   tu = (6)
 4. If ISU wins while BU and tu lose, 
   ISU gets the 3 seed (1-1 v OU, 2-0 v KU)
   OU the 4 seed (1-1 v ISU, 0-2 v KU)
   tu the 5 seed (1-1 v BU, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU) 
   BU the 6 seed (1-1 v tu, 0-2 v KU, 0-2 v WVU)

 5. If ISU and tu win and BU loses (10-8)
   ISU = (3) (2-2 v OU+tu, 2-0 v KU)
   OU = (4) (2-2 vs ISU+tu, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU, 2-0 v BU)
   tu = (5) (2-2 v ISU+OU, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU, 1-1 v BU)
   BU = (6)
 6. If tu wins while ISU and BU lose, 
   OU gets the 3 seed (1-1 v tu, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU, 3-1 v ISU + BU)
   tu gets the 4 seed (1-1 v tu, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU, 2-2 v ISU + BU)
   BU gets the 5 seed (2-0 v ISU)
   ISU gets the 6 seed

 7. If BU and tu win and ISU loses (10-8)
   OU = (3) (3-1 v BU+tu)
   tu = (4) (2-2 v BU+OU)
   BU = (5) (1-3 v OU+tu)
   ISU = (6)
 8. If BU wins while ISU and tu lose, 
   OU = (3) (2-0 v BU)
   BU = (4)
   ISU = (5) (1-1 v tu, 1-1 v KU)
   tu = (6) (1-1 v ISU, 0-2 v KU)

I've double checked and I think the above is all correct, but this was all manual (not database) work, and proofing my own work has never been one of my favorite tasks

(especially after an evening libation

)
As always, if anyone wants to double check, I appreciate errata notices!

ROCK CHALK!

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

Last Edit: 8 years 1 month ago by HawkErrant. Reason: fix typo

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NotOstertag
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8 years 1 month ago #5342 by NotOstertag

I throw up some random topline nonsense, and then you come in with the heavy artillery! Well done, HE. You're making me look like a piker, lol.

I've just poured myself an "evening libation" and will review this all.

Love this place....

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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JRhawk
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8 years 1 month ago #5344 by JRhawk

It seems that last year you did a similar exercise and I found some small error. This year I'll take your word for it (smiley face) as is way beyond my attention span level. Maybe one reason is I don't think it matters much what KU does in the Big 12 tourney (naturally hope they win tomorrow night at home) - seem a lock for a 1 seed and play in Des Moines. If the Patriot League and Atlantic Sun Conf tourneys are a precursor, will be a lot of upsets. League champ Bucknell lost to Holy Cross and in Atlantic, #7 Stetson will play at #4 FGCU for the title (go Joe Dooley).

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NotOstertag
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8 years 1 month ago #5346 by NotOstertag

Agree on the conf tourney. I hope we win, but it's clearly the consolation prize, and I think we're a #1 seed no matter what. It's really a question of holding on to the THE #1 seed, which really isn't THAT important IMHO.

Really the only thing I care about right now are two things:
1.) No stupid injuries or illnesses.
2.) No letting up. We have two weekends where, while we'll be playing, it doesn't mean a lot. This can cause a lapse in focus and intensity. We can't afford that now. Starting tomorrow this team needs to be laser focused on not just keeping sharp, but looking for every possible way to get sharper.

They're really positioned well this year, and they can't squander it.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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Bayhawk
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8 years 1 month ago #5347 by Bayhawk

I had to look up "piker" on the urban dictionary!!!

The end is nothing; the road is all.
-- Jules Michelet

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HawkErrant
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b82, g84 Lift the chorus...

8 years 1 month ago #5349 by HawkErrant

The important thing is the Big Dance, and doing well there.

The seeding drill was nothing but a little mental exercise, and much easier than prior years since really only four teams can make a difference to KU. (I do remember your catch last year, JR, now that you mention it

) Odds are WVU, OU and ISU will all end up on the other side of the bracket, and BU and tu with KU. A labor of love and a challenge, all rolled into one!

And a big YES and WAY TO GO and GOOD LUCK to FGCU and Joe Dooley!
Stetson Hatters
12-21, 5-12 Away team
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
19-13, 15-4 Home team
Sun Mar 6, 6:00 pm CT ESPN2
SHOULD be a FGCU win and a trip to the Dance, but this is Championship Week, and weird **&@# happens.

Also, it looks like former KU assistant Kevin Stallings' Vanderbilt squad may be dancing for the first time in years!
espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:14875538

And hey -- how about the odds that Gonzaga doesn't dance this year? That would be different. Bubble team, going back and forth between Last 4 In and First 4 Out.
espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:14882460

Best of luck to ALL the KU tree coaches (except squid) -- until they meet our JAYHAWKS!

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NotOstertag
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8 years 1 month ago #5351 by NotOstertag

Hoping to see Gonzaga not make it. Seeing as we just passed them in consecutive conference championships, I want to make the KU/Gonzaga comparison as non-comparable as possible. While they should certainly be proud of 11 in a row, they're in a very weak conference. Most people get that, but I think reinforcing it with our long string of making the tourney is a way of backing up our success. Gonzaga missing it a few times helps drive the point home.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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HawkErrant
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b82, g84 Lift the chorus...

8 years 1 month ago - 8 years 1 month ago #5377 by HawkErrant

Filling in all the possibilities after tu's win over OSU last night 2016-03-04

BLUF (or tl;dr for the “textgens”)
1. MOST SALIENT POINT
If OU wins, they and WVU are in the bracket opposite KU and can't meet the Jayhawks until the final.
OU could drop to a 4 seed if they lose.

2. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO (my personal favorite) –

KU>ISU, WVU>BU, OU>TCU and tu>OSU this Saturday.

WVU=(2),  OU=(3) and ISU=(6) on the opposite side of the bracket and can meet KU in title game;
Winner of tu=(4) v  BU=(5) can meet KU in the Game 7 semifinal, 
assuming KU beats the winner of Game 1 between KSU=(8 ) v OSU=(9) in Game 4 (KU's first).

3. BUT –

IF WVU loses and OU wins, OU=(2), WVU=(3)
AND –
IF OU<TCU, things get squirrelly depending on what BU and ISU.
OU could still end up the (3), but could drop to a (4).
ISU could be (3), (5) or (6)
tu will be a (4) or a (5), so could be KU's opponent in the semifinal.
BU could be a (4), (5) or (6)

===========================================

THE BRACKET AS OF TODAY 2016-03-03

Seeds 1,7,8,9 and 10 are set.

BIG 12 STANDINGS

UPDATED THRU WEDNESDAY 2016-03-02 10:15 PM
AP Sch 	B12     GB  Pct.	TOTAL Pct.  Strk COMMENTS
 1 KU	14-3    --  .824	26-4  .867  W10  B12 CHAMPS!
10 WVU	12-5     2  .706	23-7  .767  W3
 6 OU	11-6     3  .647	23-6  .793  W1
19 BU	10-7     4  .588	21-9  .700  L1
21 ISU	10-7     4  .588	21-9  .700  W2
23 tu	11-7   3.5  .611	20-11 .645  W1
   TT	 8-9     6  .471        18-11 .621  L2
   KSU	 5-12    9  .294	16-14 .533  W1
   OSU	 3-15  11.5 .167	12-19 .387  L6
   TCU	 2-15   12  .118	11-19 .367  L6

REMAINING BIG 12 GAMES (all times are Central)

FRI OSU v tu Stillwater, OK  8:00 p.m. ESPN2
SAT TCU v OU Fort Worth, TX 12:00 p.m. ESPNEWS
SAT BU v WVU Waco, TX        1:00 p.m. ESPN
SAT TT v KSU Lubbock, TX     2:00 p.m. ESPNEWS
SAT KU v ISU Lawrence, KS    3:00 p.m. ESPN

THE POSSIBILITIES IN DETAIL IF OU WINS

a. WVU > BU, WVU = (2) seed no matter what anyone else does.
b. OU > TCU,  WVU >@BU, OU = (3) seed
c. OU > TCU,  WVU <@BU = a tie for second place in the standings.
    OU = (2) (2-0 v WVU)
    WVU = (3)
       In (b) or (c), WVU and OU can't see KU until title game.
d. [/strike]
e. In (b)[ OU > TCU + WVU >@BU], if tu wins (11-7), but ISU loses to join BU @10-8
    tu = (4) at 11-7
    BU = (5) (2-0 v ISU)
    ISU =(6)

f. In (b)[ OU > TCU + WVU >@BU], if tu and ISU tie @11-7 win and BU is 10-8
    ISU = (4) (1-1 v tu, 1-1 v KU)
    tu = (5) (1-1 v ISU, 0-2 v KU)
    BU = (6)
g. [/strike]
h. [/strike]

i. In (c)[ OU > TCU + WVU <@BU], if tu wins to tie BU @11-7and ISU drops to 10-8
    tu = (4) (1-1 v BU, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU)
    BU = (5) (1-1 v tu, 0-2 v KU, 1-1 v WVU)
    ISU = (6)
j. [/strike]
k. In (c)[ OU > TCU + WVU <@BU], if tu and ISU win to tie BU @11-7
    BU = (4) (3-1 v ISU+tu)
    tu = (5) (2-2 v BU+ISU)
    ISU = (6) (1-3 v BU+tu)

IF OU LOSES

l. If OU loses, things get really squirrelly.
 1. [/strike]
 2. ISU, BU and tu all win = a 4 way 11-7 log jam for 3rd place.
  Tm↓ vs → OU  tu   BU   ISU
   OU      x   1-1  2-0  1-1  4-2 Best record between the 4 = (3) seed
   tu     1-1   x   1-1  1-1  3-3 tied for 2nd best record; 1-1 v BU, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU = (4) 
   BU     0-2  1-1   x   2-0  3-3 2nd best record; 1-1 v tu, 0-2 v KU, 1-1 v WVU = (5) seed
   ISU    1-1  1-1  0-2   x   2-4 worst record vs group; 2-0 vs KU doesn't help; = (6) seed

 3.[/strike]
 4. [/strike]
 5. If ISU and tu win and BU loses (10-8)
   ISU = (3) (2-2 v OU+tu, 2-0 v KU)
   OU = (4) (2-2 vs ISU+tu, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU, 2-0 v BU)
   tu = (5) (2-2 v ISU+OU, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU, 1-1 v BU)
   BU = (6)
 6. If tu wins while ISU and BU lose, 
   OU gets the 3 seed (1-1 v tu, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU, 3-1 v ISU + BU)
   tu gets the 4 seed (1-1 v tu, 0-2 v KU, 2-0 v WVU, 2-2 v ISU + BU)
   BU gets the 5 seed (2-0 v ISU)
   ISU gets the 6 seed

 7. If BU and tu win and ISU loses (10-8)
   OU = (3) (3-1 v BU+tu)
   tu = (4) (2-2 v BU+OU)
   BU = (5) (1-3 v OU+tu)
   ISU = (6)
8. [/strike]

This is a quick edit, but should be a good solution set since all I did was strike out the scenarios where tu would have lost.

Last Edit: 8 years 1 month ago by HawkErrant.

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