10 criteria shared by most champs:only 10 teams make the cut

Good afternoon from glorious Austin TX. Well, glorious is you are a Jayhawk fan.

Man, what a butt whooping Bevo took last night. I was at the game and there were so many dumbfounded longhorn fans. It was beautiful to witness as a Jayhawk fan. The Frank Erwin center cleared out with about 9 minutes left in the game. There were a decent number of Jayhawk fans in attendance. I actually saw a person I graduated high school with in Wichita (I'm 31 years old). This is the only Jayhawk game i've gone too all year and it turns out it was their best game of the year. We absolutely dominated on both ends. We looks crisp, fast, loose, and played with no pressure. I'm sure that translated on TV as well.

I've been busy doing all kinds of research on who the legit teams are to make the final 4 and cut down the nets. That's why I haven't posted much. Well, here goes...I'm putting my tl; dr at the beginning so you don't have to scroll to the bottom to find a summary.

Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Villanova, Michigan State, Virginia, Xavier, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Arizona. One of these teams will be the national champion. These are the only teams who rank within the Ken Pom top 20 in offense and defense or are close to the top 20 in one or both categories.

I used this article as a starting point for my analysis

My analysis tells me Kansas and Oklahoma meet 9 out of 10 requirements, followed by North Carolina and Villanova who meet 8 out of 10 requirements, followed by Michigan State and Virginia who meet 7 out of 10 requirements. Xavier got 6 out of 10, Kentucky got 5 out of 10, West Virginia got 5 out of 10, and Arizona got 4 out of 10.

Personally, I like Kansas, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Virginia as favorites to cut down the nets. I like their scoring balance of not relying heavily on the three, but being able to hit a high percentage from three (except for North Carolina who dominates inside), their FG% margin over their opponents, their average scoring margins, their rebound margins, their turnover margins (Michigan State's is actually -2.3, but they hit such a high percentage of shots that it doesn't really affect them), their Ken Pom ranks, their front court players, their guard play, the number of players who score in double figures, and coaches who've been to at least the sweet 16. These four teams will be tough to beat in the tournament.

My own personal opinion is that Oklahoma and Villanova are too reliant on the three ball to cut down the nets.

40.2% of OU's shots are threes which is ranked 63rd in the country. They make 42.8% from three which is 2nd best in the country. 59.8% of their shots are twos which is 289th best in the country. They shoot 47.8% from two which is 211th best in the country. They meet most of the requirements because they hit the three very well. If they go cold from the three point line I don't believe they have the balance to score a high percentage from two.

44.2% of Villanova's shots are threes which is ranked 22nd in the country. They make 33% from three which is 250th best in the country. 55.8% of their shots are twos which is 330th best in the country. They shoot 57.1% from two which is 3rd best in the country. Villanova should cut down on the three point shooting as they aren't hitting a great percentage and focus more on scoring inside. If they do that they will be a tough out.

Let's look at Kansas for a comparison. 33.7% of Kansas' shots are threes which is ranked 220th in the country. They make 42.6% from three which is 4th best in the country. 66.3% of their shots are twos which is 132nd best in the country. They shoot 51.7% from two which is 64th best in the country. KU doesn't shoot a lot of threes compared to Oklahoma or Villanova, but when they do shoot them they convert about as well as Oklahoma or Michigan State. KU is more balanced overall and I think that's important in tournament play. If your hot 3 pt shooters suddenly go cold you still want to be able to make a high percentage of shots from inside the 3 pt line.

Here are the 10 criteria most champs have shared since 2003:

-Every champion since 1989, except 2011 Uconn who was a 7 seed, has been a 4 seed or better
-Every champion except 2014 Uconn has ranked in the top 20 of Ken Pom's adjOFF efficiency and adjDEF efficiency rankings
-Every champion except 2011 Uconn and 2003 Syracuse shot over 37% from three
-Every champion except 2011 Uconn and 2010 Duke has a front court player average better than 12 points a game.
-8 out of the last 12 champions had four players average in double figures.
-10 out of the last 12 champs held opponents to less than 45% from two-point shots
-10 out of the last 12 champs held opponents to a free throw rate < 31%. 2010 Duke held opponents to a 34% free throw rate. 2013 Louisville held opponents to a 34.61% free throw rate.
-Since the 1997 Arizona team, Uconn (2015) and Duke (2015) are the only national champions that have not finished either first or tied for first in their conference regular reason or won their conference tournament
-Every national champion's coach dating back to 1990 has been to at least a sweet 16

The teams who meet 9 out of the 10 requirements right now are Kansas and Oklahoma.

-Kansas missed the opponent free throw rate < 31% requirement (37.28%)
-Oklahoma missed the finished either first in the conference regular season or win the conference tournament requirement requirement. (OU could still win the big 12 conference tournament.)

The teams who meet 8 out of the 10 requirements right now are North Carolina and Villanova.

-North Carolina missed the Top 20 Ken Pom adjDEF efficiency requirement (ranked 39) and the 3 PT % > 37% requirement (31.60%).

-Villanova missed the 3 PT% > 37% requirement (33%) and the opponent free throw rate < 31% requirement (31.49%).

The teams who meet 7 out of the 10 requirements right now are Michigan State and Virginia.

-Michigan State missed the 4 players averaging double figures requirement (has 3 players, one is Denzel Valentine who averages 19.6 ppg which makes up for this requirement falling short), the opponent free throw rate < 31% requirement (33.90%), and the finished either first in the conference regular season or win the conference tournament requirement requirement (Michigan State could still win the Big 10 tournament).

-Virginia missed the 4 players averaging double figures requirement (has 3 players, one is Malcolm Brogdon who averages 18.5 ppg which makes up for this requirement falling short), the opponent free throw rate < 31% requirement (34.27%), and the finished either first in the conference regular season or win the conference tournament requirement requirement (Virginia could still win the ACC tournament).

Xavier got 6 out of 10, Kentucky got 5 out of 10, West Virginia got 5 out of 10, and Arizona got 4 out of 10.