Big 12 projection, Round 14

In a battle of two 8-5 teams, you knew somebody would pick up their sixth loss.
You probably didn't expect it to be the home team, but Baylor rolled into
Austin and won, thus moving into fourth place, while Texas dropped below
Iowa State, a home winner over TCU.  Now Kansas knows how to beat Texas in
Austin a week from tomorrow.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma's road win in Morgantown was
enough for the Sooners to leapfrog the Mountaineers into second place.  Looking
at those 9-5 teams, realize that Baylor still has to play both Oklahoma and
West Virginia.  One of them is guaranteed to pick up a sixth conference loss.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  4  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17  12.53  12.66  11.95  12.20  12.36  12.85  13.53  13.64  13.93   11  3  @BU  (Tu)   KU  by  2.7   projected road win
#  7  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91  13.18  13.72  13.94  13.83  12.86  12.96  12.26  11.50  12.22    9  5   OSU (We)   OU  by 14.5
#  5  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18  12.82  13.08  13.18  13.50  13.78  13.33  13.44  12.80  12.01    9  5   ISU (Mo)   WV  by  7.7
# 28  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84  11.15  10.53  10.97  10.22   9.99  10.59   9.60  10.10  10.82    9  5   KU  (Tu)   
# 22  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24   9.99  10.28  11.09  10.49  10.85  10.17  10.53  10.03  10.08    8  6  @WV  (Mo)   
# 34  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68   9.13   8.94   9.05  10.13  10.35  10.25   9.92  10.58   9.85    8  6  @KSU (Mo)   
# 45  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79   6.16   5.97   5.77   5.96   5.74   6.46   7.47   8.24   8.81    7  7   TCU (Tu)   TT  by 11.8
# 46  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27   6.02   6.61   6.47   6.11   7.11   6.41   5.90   6.24   5.96    4 10   UT  (Mo)   KSU by  0.9
# 75  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71   6.28   5.73   5.27   5.15   4.72   4.06   4.46   4.33   3.83    3 11  @OU  (We)   
#128  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21   2.74   2.48   2.31   2.41   2.24   2.92   2.89   2.54   2.49    2 12  @TT  (Tu)   

Whitlock took honors for best prognostications in Round 14, but it was a below-average
round for everybody, what with four road wins when only one was projected.  Greenfield
retains the season lead, with Real Time bringing up the rear again.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1           2          1+           1           2     1     1     +     1     1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
OSU over TT      0.4   2.0   0.1   1.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  -0.1  -0.8  -0.7  -2.0  -0.7  -0.1   1.8  -2.8   3.5    -10    10.4  12.0  10.1  11.0  14.0  11.0  11.0   9.9   9.2   9.3   8.0   9.3   9.9  11.8   7.2  13.5
UT  over BU      4.0   6.0   4.3   5.0   8.0   5.0  11.0   5.3   3.6   5.0   5.0   5.1   4.0   5.9   9.6   1.6    -14    18.0  20.0  18.3  19.0  22.0  19.0  25.0  19.3  17.6  19.0  19.0  19.1  18.0  19.9  23.6  15.6
WV  over OU      4.7   5.0   2.7   4.0   5.5   2.5   5.0   5.3   2.8   2.0   2.0   5.2   5.3   7.2   5.1   8.4    -14    18.7  19.0  16.7  18.0  19.5  16.5  19.0  19.3  16.8  16.0  16.0  19.2  19.3  21.2  19.1  22.4
KU  over KSU     5.4   4.0   4.2   5.5   8.5   5.5   2.0   4.8   5.0   2.1  -1.0   3.7   6.2   4.3   5.6   4.3      9     3.6   5.0   4.8   3.5   0.5   3.5   7.0   4.2   4.0   6.9  10.0   5.3   2.8   4.7   3.4   4.7
ISU over TCU    15.8  19.0  16.6  17.5  14.0  17.5  21.0  15.8  15.0  14.8  15.0  14.8  16.4  18.2  13.3  19.6      9     6.8  10.0   7.6   8.5   5.0   8.5  12.0   6.8   6.0   5.8   6.0   5.8   7.4   9.2   4.3  10.6

total this round                                                                                                         57.5  66.0  57.5  60.0  61.0  58.5  74.0  59.5  53.6  57.0  59.0  58.7  57.4  66.8  57.6  66.8
previous total                                                                                                          433.4 447.0 445.1 415.0 474.5 426.0 487.0 441.1 452.3 462.8 489.0 445.2 450.5 444.4 472.5 446.3
cumulative                                                                                                              490.9 513.0 502.6 475.0 535.5 484.5 561.0 500.6 505.9 519.8 548.0 503.9 507.9 511.2 530.1 513.1
per game (total of 70)                                                                                                    7.0   7.3   7.2   6.8   7.7   6.9   8.0   7.2   7.2   7.4   7.8   7.2   7.3   7.3   7.6   7.3

Only one road win was projected for Round 14, and it did materialize for the Jayhawks.
However, three other road wins also occurred, with Oklahoma's win in Morgantown allowing
Kansas to open up a two-game lead in the race for the conference championship.  Texas
Tech's win in Stillwater doesn't come as a surprise, given how that game was close to a
pick 'em.  In fact, all four road wins involved games that were projected to be close,
so it's not a terribly big surprise, but we're now two wins ahead of the long-term
one-in-three average.  Only one road win is projected for Round 15, and if Kansas can
pull off the victory in Waco, things would be looking pretty good for championship #12.

Road wins (25 out of 70)                  Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
-------------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
5 Baylor          ISU TT  OSU KSU UT      0 Kansas                                 +4 Kansas        
4 Kansas          TT  TCU OU  KSU         1 Oklahoma        KU                     +2 Baylor        
4 West Virginia   KSU TCU TT  ISU         1 Texas           BU                     +2 Oklahoma      
3 Iowa State      KSU TCU OSU             2 Iowa State      BU  WV                 +2 West Virginia 
3 Oklahoma        OSU BU  WV              2 West Virginia   UT  OU                 +1 Iowa State    
3 Texas Tech      TCU BU  OSU             3 Baylor          OU  UT  TT             +1 Texas         
2 Texas           WV  BU                  3 Texas Tech      KU  BU  WV              0 Texas Tech    
1 Kansas State    TCU                     4 Kansas State    WV  ISU BU  KU         -3 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                          4 Oklahoma State  OU  BU  ISU TT         -4 Oklahoma State
0 TCU                                     5 TCU             WV  TT  ISU KU  KSU    -5 TCU           

Self has been shortening practices in an effort to keep legs fresh.  Makes
sense.  Which raises an interesting hypothesis:  Do you suppose West Virginia's
pressing style is wearing the Mountaineers out?  Their trend is at the bottom
of the conference by a wide margin, and it is statistically very significant.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +1.15    Texas Tech        7.78    Texas           +0.25 +/- 0.27    Iowa State      +0.22 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma        +0.74    Kansas State      8.08    Texas Tech      +0.25 +/- 0.20    Oklahoma State  +0.13 +/- 0.19
Kansas          +0.71    Iowa State        8.21    Kansas State    +0.03 +/- 0.20    Oklahoma        +0.05 +/- 0.17
Texas Tech      +0.44    Oklahoma          8.89    Kansas          +0.02 +/- 0.28    Kansas State    +0.04 +/- 0.14
Iowa State      +0.22    TCU               9.31    Oklahoma State  -0.04 +/- 0.26    Texas           -0.02 +/- 0.22
Baylor          +0.18    Oklahoma State   10.35    TCU             -0.10 +/- 0.23    Kansas          -0.07 +/- 0.20
Texas           +0.09    Kansas           10.54    Baylor          -0.13 +/- 0.32    Baylor          -0.09 +/- 0.20
Kansas State    -0.11    Texas            10.88    Iowa State      -0.13 +/- 0.21    TCU             -0.10 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma State  -0.12    West Virginia    11.00    Oklahoma        -0.20 +/- 0.23    Texas Tech      -0.11 +/- 0.17
TCU             -0.27    Baylor           11.89    West Virginia   -0.59 +/- 0.25    West Virginia   -0.55 +/- 0.17

With Oklahoma State's next two games being against Oklahoma and West Virginia,
their strength of schedule ought to join the lofty ranks of the rest of the
conference.  Sagarin says the #1 strength of schedule belongs to Wake Forest,
but the #2 through #6 spots are all in the Big 12.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    --------------------------
Iowa State      82.52    West Virginia   66.30    Iowa State      158.04    West Virginia   +12.70    Texas           81.43 ( 2)
Oklahoma        82.19    Oklahoma State  67.41    Oklahoma        153.50    Kansas          +11.65    Oklahoma        81.08 ( 3)
Kansas          80.62    Kansas State    67.56    Kansas          149.58    Oklahoma        +10.88    Kansas          80.60 ( 4)
West Virginia   79.00    Texas           68.44    Baylor          147.85    Iowa State       +7.00    Iowa State      80.56 ( 5)
Baylor          77.31    Kansas          68.96    West Virginia   145.30    Baylor           +6.77    Texas Tech      80.34 ( 6)
Texas Tech      72.27    Texas Tech      69.42    Texas Tech      141.69    Texas            +3.52    Kansas State    79.84 ( 9)
Texas           71.96    TCU             70.44    Texas           140.41    Kansas State     +2.85    West Virginia   79.71 (11)
Kansas State    70.41    Baylor          70.54    Kansas State    137.96    Texas Tech       +2.85    Baylor          79.15 (19)
Oklahoma State  68.30    Oklahoma        71.31    TCU             136.78    Oklahoma State   +0.89    TCU             78.91 (23)
TCU             66.33    Iowa State      75.52    Oklahoma State  135.70    TCU              -4.11    Oklahoma State  78.37 (36)