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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 game Odds
- CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 2 months ago #4302
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Below are the probabilities of all 90 Big 12 games. You can see OU has only a 27% chance of winning at WVU today. They are a 9 point underdog. OU has only played 9 points above in 2 Big 12 games. West Virginia has only played 9 points below in 2 Big 12 games. That would give OU a 15% chance of winning. But let's hope they bust our of their funk and take down WVU. The Texas./Baylor game should be a great game since Texas is favored by only 2. KU is favored by 5 against K-State. But KU has a strong positive trend increasing the margin to 8 so I really like our chances. KU has the distinction of being on the losing side of the worst upset in the Big 12 losing to Oklahoma St where KU performed 29 points below rating. In fact KU also has the 4th worst upset losing to TCU playing 19 points below their rating. And to complete the trifecta, KU has the 8th worst upset losing to Iowa St. playing almost 14 points below their rating. That 5 game funk by KU was a real doozy.
Proj Proj
Team Opp Exp Actual Margin
Gm Date Team Opp H/A/N Score Score Margin Margin Delta Prob
*** ******** ************** ************** ***** ***** ***** ****** ****** ****** ******
1 01/02/16 Baylor Kansas A 68.3 80.8 -12.6 -28 -15.4 0%
2 01/05/16 Baylor Oklahoma State H 77.7 64.3 13.3 17 3.7 100%
3 01/09/16 Baylor Iowa State A 73.1 79.7 -6.6 5 11.6 100%
4 01/13/16 Baylor TCU H 80.7 61.7 19.0 28 9.0 100%
5 01/16/16 Baylor Texas Tech A 72.1 73.0 -0.8 3 3.8 100%
6 01/20/16 Baylor Kansas State H 75.7 67.4 8.3 7 -1.3 100%
7 01/23/16 Baylor Oklahoma H 76.8 74.3 2.5 -10 -12.5 0%
8 01/27/16 Baylor Oklahoma State A 72.4 69.6 2.7 4 1.3 100%
9 02/01/16 Baylor Texas H 76.4 67.8 8.7 -8 -16.7 0%
10 02/06/16 Baylor West Virginia A 67.5 79.4 -11.9 -11 0.9 0%
11 02/10/16 Baylor Kansas State A 70.4 72.7 -2.3 10 12.3 100%
12 02/13/16 Baylor Texas Tech H 77.4 67.7 9.8 -18 -27.8 0%
13 02/16/16 Baylor Iowa State H 78.4 74.4 4.0 9 5.0 100%
14 02/20/16 Baylor Texas A 71.1 73.1 -1.9 0 0.0 45%
15 02/23/16 Baylor Kansas H 73.6 75.5 -2.0 0 0.0 45%
16 02/27/16 Baylor TCU A 75.4 67.0 8.4 0 0.0 72%
17 03/01/16 Baylor Oklahoma A 71.5 79.6 -8.1 0 0.0 29%
18 03/05/16 Baylor West Virginia H 72.8 74.1 -1.3 0 0.0 47%
1 01/02/16 Iowa State Oklahoma A 74.5 81.3 -6.7 -4 2.7 0%
2 01/06/16 Iowa State Texas Tech H 80.4 69.3 11.1 7 -4.1 100%
3 01/09/16 Iowa State Baylor H 79.7 73.1 6.6 -5 -11.6 0%
4 01/12/16 Iowa State Texas A 74.1 74.7 -0.6 -3 -2.4 0%
5 01/16/16 Iowa State Kansas State A 73.4 74.3 -0.9 13 13.9 100%
6 01/18/16 Iowa State Oklahoma H 79.8 76.0 3.9 5 1.1 100%
7 01/23/16 Iowa State TCU A 78.4 68.7 9.7 13 3.3 100%
8 01/25/16 Iowa State Kansas H 76.5 77.2 -0.7 13 13.7 100%
9 02/02/16 Iowa State West Virginia H 75.8 75.7 0.1 -5 -5.1 0%
10 02/06/16 Iowa State Oklahoma State A 75.4 71.3 4.1 5 0.9 100%
11 02/10/16 Iowa State Texas Tech A 75.1 74.6 0.5 -3 -3.5 0%
12 02/13/16 Iowa State Texas H 79.4 69.4 10.0 10 0.0 100%
13 02/16/16 Iowa State Baylor A 74.4 78.4 -4.0 -9 -5.0 0%
14 02/20/16 Iowa State TCU H 83.7 63.4 20.3 0 0.0 91%
15 02/22/16 Iowa State West Virginia A 70.5 81.0 -10.5 0 0.0 24%
16 02/27/16 Iowa State Kansas State H 78.7 69.0 9.7 0 0.0 75%
17 02/29/16 Iowa State Oklahoma State H 80.7 66.0 14.7 0 0.0 84%
18 03/05/16 Iowa State Kansas A 71.2 82.5 -11.3 0 0.0 22%
1 01/02/16 Kansas Baylor H 80.8 68.3 12.6 28 15.4 100%
2 01/04/16 Kansas Oklahoma H 81.0 71.2 9.8 3 -6.8 100%
3 01/09/16 Kansas Texas Tech A 76.3 69.8 6.5 10 3.5 100%
4 01/12/16 Kansas West Virginia A 71.6 76.2 -4.6 -11 -6.4 0%
5 01/16/16 Kansas TCU H 84.8 58.6 26.3 7 -19.3 100%
6 01/19/16 Kansas Oklahoma State A 76.5 66.5 10.0 -19 -29.0 0%
7 01/23/16 Kansas Texas H 80.6 64.6 16.0 9 -7.0 100%
8 01/25/16 Kansas Iowa State A 77.2 76.5 0.7 -13 -13.7 0%
9 02/03/16 Kansas Kansas State H 79.8 64.2 15.6 18 2.4 100%
10 02/06/16 Kansas TCU A 79.5 63.9 15.7 19 3.3 100%
11 02/09/16 Kansas West Virginia H 76.9 70.9 6.0 10 4.0 100%
12 02/13/16 Kansas Oklahoma A 75.7 76.5 -0.8 4 4.8 100%
13 02/15/16 Kansas Oklahoma State H 81.8 61.2 20.6 27 6.4 100%
14 02/20/16 Kansas Kansas State A 74.5 69.5 5.0 0 0.0 64%
15 02/23/16 Kansas Baylor A 75.5 73.6 2.0 0 0.0 55%
16 02/27/16 Kansas Texas Tech H 81.6 64.5 17.1 0 0.0 87%
17 02/29/16 Kansas Texas A 75.3 69.9 5.4 0 0.0 64%
18 03/05/16 Kansas Iowa State H 82.5 71.2 11.3 0 0.0 78%
1 01/02/16 Kansas State West Virginia H 68.8 73.0 -4.3 -4 0.3 0%
2 01/05/16 Kansas State Texas A 67.1 72.1 -5.0 -3 2.0 0%
3 01/09/16 Kansas State Oklahoma A 67.5 78.6 -11.1 -10 1.1 0%
4 01/12/16 Kansas State Texas Tech H 73.4 66.6 6.8 13 6.2 100%
5 01/16/16 Kansas State Iowa State H 74.3 73.4 0.9 -13 -13.9 0%
6 01/20/16 Kansas State Baylor A 67.4 75.7 -8.3 -7 1.3 0%
7 01/23/16 Kansas State Oklahoma State H 73.6 63.3 10.3 16 5.7 100%
8 01/26/16 Kansas State West Virginia A 63.5 78.3 -14.9 -15 -0.1 0%
9 02/03/16 Kansas State Kansas A 64.2 79.8 -15.6 -18 -2.4 0%
10 02/06/16 Kansas State Oklahoma H 72.8 73.3 -0.5 11 11.5 100%
11 02/10/16 Kansas State Baylor H 72.7 70.4 2.3 -10 -12.3 0%
12 02/13/16 Kansas State Oklahoma State A 68.3 68.6 -0.3 -3 -2.7 0%
13 02/16/16 Kansas State TCU A 71.4 66.0 5.4 14 8.6 100%
14 02/20/16 Kansas State Kansas H 69.5 74.5 -5.0 0 0.0 37%
15 02/22/16 Kansas State Texas H 72.4 66.8 5.6 0 0.0 65%
16 02/27/16 Kansas State Iowa State A 69.0 78.7 -9.7 0 0.0 25%
17 03/02/16 Kansas State TCU H 76.7 60.7 16.0 0 0.0 86%
18 03/05/16 Kansas State Texas Tech A 68.1 71.9 -3.8 0 0.0 40%
1 01/02/16 Oklahoma Iowa State H 81.3 74.5 6.7 4 -2.7 100%
2 01/04/16 Oklahoma Kansas A 71.2 81.0 -9.8 -3 6.8 0%
3 01/09/16 Oklahoma Kansas State H 78.6 67.5 11.1 10 -1.1 100%
4 01/13/16 Oklahoma Oklahoma State A 75.3 69.8 5.5 2 -3.5 100%
5 01/16/16 Oklahoma West Virginia H 75.7 74.2 1.5 2 0.5 100%
6 01/18/16 Oklahoma Iowa State A 76.0 79.8 -3.9 -5 -1.1 0%
7 01/23/16 Oklahoma Baylor A 74.3 76.8 -2.5 10 12.5 100%
8 01/26/16 Oklahoma Texas Tech H 80.4 67.8 12.6 24 11.4 100%
9 02/02/16 Oklahoma TCU H 83.6 61.8 21.8 23 1.2 100%
10 02/06/16 Oklahoma Kansas State A 73.3 72.8 0.5 -11 -11.5 0%
11 02/08/16 Oklahoma Texas H 79.3 67.9 11.4 3 -8.4 100%
12 02/13/16 Oklahoma Kansas H 76.5 75.7 0.8 -4 -4.8 0%
13 02/17/16 Oklahoma Texas Tech A 75.1 73.1 2.0 -2 -4.0 0%
14 02/20/16 Oklahoma West Virginia A 70.4 79.5 -9.1 0 0.0 27%
15 02/24/16 Oklahoma Oklahoma State H 80.6 64.5 16.1 0 0.0 86%
16 02/27/16 Oklahoma Texas A 74.0 73.2 0.8 0 0.0 52%
17 03/01/16 Oklahoma Baylor H 79.6 71.5 8.1 0 0.0 71%
18 03/05/16 Oklahoma TCU A 78.3 67.1 11.2 0 0.0 78%
1 01/02/16 Oklahoma State TCU H 73.6 62.7 11.0 21 10.0 100%
2 01/05/16 Oklahoma State Baylor A 64.3 77.7 -13.3 -17 -3.7 0%
3 01/09/16 Oklahoma State West Virginia A 60.4 80.3 -19.9 -17 2.9 0%
4 01/13/16 Oklahoma State Oklahoma H 69.8 75.3 -5.5 -2 3.5 0%
5 01/16/16 Oklahoma State Texas A 64.1 74.0 -10.0 -5 5.0 0%
6 01/19/16 Oklahoma State Kansas H 66.5 76.5 -10.0 19 29.0 100%
7 01/23/16 Oklahoma State Kansas State A 63.3 73.6 -10.3 -16 -5.7 0%
8 01/27/16 Oklahoma State Baylor H 69.6 72.4 -2.7 -4 -1.3 0%
9 02/03/16 Oklahoma State Texas Tech A 65.1 73.9 -8.8 -2 6.8 0%
10 02/06/16 Oklahoma State Iowa State H 71.3 75.4 -4.1 -5 -0.9 0%
11 02/08/16 Oklahoma State TCU A 68.3 68.0 0.4 -7 -7.4 0%
12 02/13/16 Oklahoma State Kansas State H 68.6 68.3 0.3 3 2.7 100%
13 02/15/16 Oklahoma State Kansas A 61.2 81.8 -20.6 -27 -6.4 0%
14 02/20/16 Oklahoma State Texas Tech H 70.4 68.6 1.8 0 0.0 55%
15 02/24/16 Oklahoma State Oklahoma A 64.5 80.6 -16.1 0 0.0 14%
16 02/27/16 Oklahoma State West Virginia H 65.7 75.0 -9.3 0 0.0 26%
17 02/29/16 Oklahoma State Iowa State A 66.0 80.7 -14.7 0 0.0 16%
18 03/04/16 Oklahoma State Texas H 69.4 68.7 0.6 0 0.0 52%
1 01/02/16 TCU Oklahoma State A 62.7 73.6 -11.0 -21 -10.0 0%
2 01/04/16 TCU West Virginia H 63.1 78.1 -15.0 -8 7.0 0%
3 01/09/16 TCU Texas H 66.7 71.8 -5.0 1 6.0 100%
4 01/13/16 TCU Baylor A 61.7 80.7 -19.0 -28 -9.0 0%
5 01/16/16 TCU Kansas A 58.6 84.8 -26.3 -7 19.3 0%
6 01/18/16 TCU Texas Tech H 67.7 71.7 -3.9 -7 -3.1 0%
7 01/23/16 TCU Iowa State H 68.7 78.4 -9.7 -13 -3.3 0%
8 01/26/16 TCU Texas A 61.4 77.1 -15.6 -17 -1.4 0%
9 02/02/16 TCU Oklahoma A 61.8 83.6 -21.8 -23 -1.2 0%
10 02/06/16 TCU Kansas H 63.9 79.5 -15.7 -19 -3.3 0%
11 02/08/16 TCU Oklahoma State H 68.0 68.3 -0.4 7 7.4 100%
12 02/13/16 TCU West Virginia A 57.8 83.4 -25.6 -31 -5.4 0%
13 02/16/16 TCU Kansas State H 66.0 71.4 -5.4 -14 -8.6 0%
14 02/20/16 TCU Iowa State A 63.4 83.7 -20.3 0 0.0 9%
15 02/23/16 TCU Texas Tech A 62.4 77.0 -14.5 0 0.0 16%
16 02/27/16 TCU Baylor H 67.0 75.4 -8.4 0 0.0 28%
17 03/02/16 TCU Kansas State A 60.7 76.7 -16.0 0 0.0 14%
18 03/05/16 TCU Oklahoma H 67.1 78.3 -11.2 0 0.0 22%
1 01/02/16 Texas Texas Tech A 68.5 72.7 -4.2 -8 -3.8 0%
2 01/05/16 Texas Kansas State H 72.1 67.1 5.0 3 -2.0 100%
3 01/09/16 Texas TCU A 71.8 66.7 5.0 -1 -6.0 0%
4 01/12/16 Texas Iowa State H 74.7 74.1 0.6 3 2.4 100%
5 01/16/16 Texas Oklahoma State H 74.0 64.1 10.0 5 -5.0 100%
6 01/20/16 Texas West Virginia A 63.9 79.1 -15.2 7 22.2 100%
7 01/23/16 Texas Kansas A 64.6 80.6 -16.0 -9 7.0 0%
8 01/26/16 Texas TCU H 77.1 61.4 15.6 17 1.4 100%
9 02/01/16 Texas Baylor A 67.8 76.4 -8.7 8 16.7 100%
10 02/06/16 Texas Texas Tech H 73.8 67.4 6.4 10 3.6 100%
11 02/08/16 Texas Oklahoma A 67.9 79.3 -11.4 -3 8.4 0%
12 02/13/16 Texas Iowa State A 69.4 79.4 -10.0 -10 0.0 0%
13 02/16/16 Texas West Virginia H 69.2 73.8 -4.6 7 11.6 100%
14 02/20/16 Texas Baylor H 73.1 71.1 1.9 0 0.0 55%
15 02/22/16 Texas Kansas State A 66.8 72.4 -5.6 0 0.0 35%
16 02/27/16 Texas Oklahoma H 73.2 74.0 -0.8 0 0.0 48%
17 02/29/16 Texas Kansas H 69.9 75.3 -5.4 0 0.0 36%
18 03/04/16 Texas Oklahoma State A 68.7 69.4 -0.6 0 0.0 48%
1 01/02/16 Texas Tech Texas H 72.7 68.5 4.2 8 3.8 100%
2 01/06/16 Texas Tech Iowa State A 69.3 80.4 -11.1 -7 4.1 0%
3 01/09/16 Texas Tech Kansas H 69.8 76.3 -6.5 -10 -3.5 0%
4 01/12/16 Texas Tech Kansas State A 66.6 73.4 -6.8 -13 -6.2 0%
5 01/16/16 Texas Tech Baylor H 73.0 72.1 0.8 -3 -3.8 0%
6 01/18/16 Texas Tech TCU A 71.7 67.7 3.9 7 3.1 100%
7 01/23/16 Texas Tech West Virginia H 69.1 74.8 -5.7 -4 1.7 0%
8 01/26/16 Texas Tech Oklahoma A 67.8 80.4 -12.6 -24 -11.4 0%
9 02/03/16 Texas Tech Oklahoma State H 73.9 65.1 8.8 2 -6.8 100%
10 02/06/16 Texas Tech Texas A 67.4 73.8 -6.4 -10 -3.6 0%
11 02/10/16 Texas Tech Iowa State H 74.6 75.1 -0.5 3 3.5 100%
12 02/13/16 Texas Tech Baylor A 67.7 77.4 -9.8 18 27.8 100%
13 02/17/16 Texas Tech Oklahoma H 73.1 75.1 -2.0 2 4.0 100%
14 02/20/16 Texas Tech Oklahoma State A 68.6 70.4 -1.8 0 0.0 45%
15 02/23/16 Texas Tech TCU H 77.0 62.4 14.5 0 0.0 84%
16 02/27/16 Texas Tech Kansas A 64.5 81.6 -17.1 0 0.0 13%
17 03/02/16 Texas Tech West Virginia A 63.8 80.1 -16.3 0 0.0 14%
18 03/05/16 Texas Tech Kansas State H 71.9 68.1 3.8 0 0.0 60%
1 01/02/16 West Virginia Kansas State A 73.0 68.8 4.3 4 -0.3 100%
2 01/04/16 West Virginia TCU A 78.1 63.1 15.0 8 -7.0 100%
3 01/09/16 West Virginia Oklahoma State H 80.3 60.4 19.9 17 -2.9 100%
4 01/12/16 West Virginia Kansas H 76.2 71.6 4.6 11 6.4 100%
5 01/16/16 West Virginia Oklahoma A 74.2 75.7 -1.5 -2 -0.5 0%
6 01/20/16 West Virginia Texas H 79.1 63.9 15.2 -7 -22.2 0%
7 01/23/16 West Virginia Texas Tech A 74.8 69.1 5.7 4 -1.7 100%
8 01/26/16 West Virginia Kansas State H 78.3 63.5 14.9 15 0.1 100%
9 02/02/16 West Virginia Iowa State A 75.7 75.8 -0.1 5 5.1 100%
10 02/06/16 West Virginia Baylor H 79.4 67.5 11.9 11 -0.9 100%
11 02/09/16 West Virginia Kansas A 70.9 76.9 -6.0 -10 -4.0 0%
12 02/13/16 West Virginia TCU H 83.4 57.8 25.6 31 5.4 100%
13 02/16/16 West Virginia Texas A 73.8 69.2 4.6 -7 -11.6 0%
14 02/20/16 West Virginia Oklahoma H 79.5 70.4 9.1 0 0.0 73%
15 02/22/16 West Virginia Iowa State H 81.0 70.5 10.5 0 0.0 76%
16 02/27/16 West Virginia Oklahoma State A 75.0 65.7 9.3 0 0.0 74%
17 03/02/16 West Virginia Texas Tech H 80.1 63.8 16.3 0 0.0 86%
18 03/05/16 West Virginia Baylor A 74.1 72.8 1.3 0 0.0 53%Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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- HawkErrant
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- b82, g84 Lift the chorus...
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8 years 2 months ago #4309
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Thanks!
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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- CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 2 months ago #4311
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
KU obviously did not lose to TCU so no upset. But they did win by 7 and were favored by 26 so they did play below rating by 19. Sorry for incorrect wording.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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8 years 2 months ago #4358
by hairyhawk
What a great result this day has been. I say that hoping Mr. Ellis is okay. If we can win in Waco on Tuesday it will be pretty much done. I know lots of folks say that only the tourney matters but if we can win the league again this year I think more coverage will be paid to it because we will be close to the UCLA streak. I would argue the our streak is much more impressive for the conference wins because there are more very good teams we need to beat year in and year out. Obviously no one is touching the consecutive NCAA championships.
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8 years 2 months ago #4377
by konza63
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Yep, a really solid day for KU--pending good news (we hope) on Perry.
And you're right, a win at Baylor would be a huge blow to those chasing us, given that we would then have two out of three games at home. However, none of the remaining games are gimmes, and each is tough in its own way. So we have to cage up our growing anticipation for now...
As for those who only say the tourney matters, I actually don't think there are too many KU fans who see it that starkly. I think most cherish the Big 12 dominance as well, but they want that matched with tourney success. In other words, don't have one come at the expense of the other.
Here's hoping we get a nice "double-dip" this year (yet another conference crown plus the deepest possible tourney run.
And you're right, a win at Baylor would be a huge blow to those chasing us, given that we would then have two out of three games at home. However, none of the remaining games are gimmes, and each is tough in its own way. So we have to cage up our growing anticipation for now...
As for those who only say the tourney matters, I actually don't think there are too many KU fans who see it that starkly. I think most cherish the Big 12 dominance as well, but they want that matched with tourney success. In other words, don't have one come at the expense of the other.
Here's hoping we get a nice "double-dip" this year (yet another conference crown plus the deepest possible tourney run.
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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