Big 12 projection, Round 12

Easy come, easy go.  After Round 11, Baylor and Iowa State swapped fourth and sixth places.
But Baylor suffered an embarrassing 18-point home loss at the hands of Texas Tech, while
Iowa State was handling Texas in Ames, so guess what?  Iowa State is back in fourth place
and Baylor is back in sixth place after Round 12, taking us back to the way things were
after Round 10!  But more importantly, Kansas' huge road win over Oklahoma enabled them to
pick up 0.6 wins, while Oklahoma lost 0.6 wins, plus there was additional upward adjustment
for Kansas and downward adjustment for Oklahoma after the revised Sagarin Predictor ratings
were released, and the Jayhawks find themselves back in first place!

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  5  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17  12.53  12.66  11.95  12.20  12.36  12.85  13.53    9  3   OSU (Mo)   KU  by 14.5
#  2  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18  12.82  13.08  13.18  13.50  13.78  13.33  13.44    9  3  @UT  (Tu)   WV  by  3.0   projected road win
#  6  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91  13.18  13.72  13.94  13.83  12.86  12.96  12.26    8  4  @TT  (We)   OU  by  4.7   projected road win
# 21  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24   9.99  10.28  11.09  10.49  10.85  10.17  10.53    7  5  @BU  (Tu)
# 33  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68   9.13   8.94   9.05  10.13  10.35  10.25   9.92    7  5   WV  (Tu)   
# 35  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84  11.15  10.53  10.97  10.22   9.99  10.59   9.60    7  5   ISU (Tu)   BU  by  1.1
# 50  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79   6.16   5.97   5.77   5.96   5.74   6.46   7.47    5  7   OU  (We)   
# 47  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27   6.02   6.61   6.47   6.11   7.11   6.41   5.90    3  9  @TCU (Tu)   KSU by  4.5   projected road win
# 69  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71   6.28   5.73   5.27   5.15   4.72   4.06   4.46    3  9  @KU  (Mo)
#122  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21   2.74   2.48   2.31   2.41   2.24   2.92   2.89    2 10   KSU (Tu)   

DPPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 12.  Greenfield
retains the season lead, while Real Time is pulling up the rear.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1           2          1+                       2     1     1     +     1     1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
OSU over KSU     0.8   3.0   1.7   1.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.9  -0.3   0.1  -2.0  -1.6   0.8   2.7   0.8   1.7      3     2.2   0.0   1.3   2.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.1   3.3   2.9   5.0   4.6   2.2   0.3   2.2   1.3
OU  over KU      3.0   6.0   4.3   4.5   2.5   5.0  12.0   2.9   4.0   6.4   4.0   3.1   3.2   5.1   2.3   2.5     -4     7.0  10.0   8.3   8.5   6.5   9.0  16.0   6.9   8.0  10.4   8.0   7.1   7.2   9.1   6.3   6.5
ISU over UT      4.6   7.0   5.5   5.0   7.0   5.5  10.0   3.5   5.3   5.6   5.0   5.7   4.8   6.6  -0.2  11.0     10     5.4   3.0   4.5   5.0   3.0   4.5   0.0   6.5   4.7   4.4   5.0   4.3   5.2   3.4  10.2   1.0
BU  over TT      7.6   9.0   7.3  10.0   8.5  10.0   9.0   6.8   6.6   4.8   4.0   5.5   7.4   9.3   7.5  10.2    -18    25.6  27.0  25.3  28.0  26.5  28.0  27.0  24.8  24.6  22.8  22.0  23.5  25.4  27.3  25.5  28.2
WV  over TCU    19.6  21.0  16.6  17.5  20.0  17.5  28.0  18.2  17.5  15.9  13.0  17.1  21.4  23.3  21.7  24.3     31    11.4  10.0  14.4  13.5  11.0  13.5   3.0  12.8  13.5  15.1  18.0  13.9   9.6   7.7   9.3   6.7

total this round                                                                                                         51.6  50.0  53.8  57.0  47.0  57.0  48.0  53.1  54.1  55.6  58.0  53.4  49.6  47.8  53.5  43.7
previous total                                                                                                          386.9 403.0 398.5 377.0 436.0 382.0 464.0 395.3 405.6 412.6 447.0 401.8 403.1 402.7 430.0 405.7
cumulative                                                                                                              438.5 453.0 452.3 434.0 483.0 439.0 512.0 448.4 459.7 468.2 505.0 455.2 452.7 450.5 483.5 449.4
per game (total of 60)                                                                                                    7.3   7.6   7.5   7.2   8.1   7.3   8.5   7.5   7.7   7.8   8.4   7.6   7.5   7.5   8.1   7.5

Although no road wins were projected for Round 12, two materialized, keeping us
right at the long-term-average of one road win in three games.  Three road wins
are projected for Round 13, what with Oklahoma and West Virginia on the road,
but Kansas State is at TCU and projected to win, though it's TCU's best chance
at picking up a third conference win.

Road wins (20 out of 60)              Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
4 Baylor          ISU TT  OSU KSU     0 Kansas                                 +3 West Virginia 
4 West Virginia   KSU TCU TT  ISU     0 Texas                                  +3 Kansas        
3 Iowa State      KSU TCU OSU         1 Oklahoma        KU                     +2 Texas         
3 Kansas          TT  TCU OU          1 West Virginia   UT                     +1 Baylor        
2 Oklahoma        OSU BU              2 Iowa State      BU  WV                 +1 Iowa State    
2 Texas           WV  BU              3 Baylor          OU  UT  TT             +1 Oklahoma      
2 Texas Tech      TCU BU              3 Kansas State    WV  ISU BU             -1 Texas Tech    
0 Kansas State                        3 Oklahoma State  OU  BU  ISU            -3 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                      3 Texas Tech      KU  BU  WV             -3 Oklahoma State
0 TCU                                 4 TCU             WV  TT  ISU KU         -4 TCU           

By playing 23.8 points above expectation in beating Baylor by 18 in Waco,
Texas Tech's inconsistency jumped from 6.09 to 7.79, back into the
believable range.  Despite their 10-point loss at Iowa State, Texas still
has the most positive trend in the Big 12, and despite their 31-point win
at home over TCU, West Virginia still has the most negative trend in the
Big 12.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +1.39    Texas Tech        7.79    Texas           +0.41 +/- 0.28    Iowa State      +0.23 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma        +0.75    Kansas State      8.08    Texas Tech      +0.18 +/- 0.23    Oklahoma State  +0.21 +/- 0.19
Kansas          +0.64    Iowa State        8.21    Oklahoma State  +0.15 +/- 0.29    Kansas State    +0.04 +/- 0.14
Texas Tech      +0.43    Oklahoma          8.37    Kansas State    -0.02 +/- 0.23    Texas           -0.05 +/- 0.21
Iowa State      +0.31    TCU               9.39    Iowa State      -0.04 +/- 0.23    Oklahoma        -0.07 +/- 0.17
Texas           +0.13    Oklahoma State   10.21    Kansas          -0.10 +/- 0.32    Kansas          -0.08 +/- 0.20
Baylor          +0.08    West Virginia    10.41    TCU             -0.11 +/- 0.27    TCU             -0.11 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma State  -0.05    Kansas           10.47    Oklahoma        -0.41 +/- 0.24    Texas Tech      -0.15 +/- 0.17
Kansas State    -0.10    Texas            10.48    Baylor          -0.42 +/- 0.34    Baylor          -0.16 +/- 0.20
TCU             -0.30    Baylor           11.66    West Virginia   -0.44 +/- 0.28    West Virginia   -0.51 +/- 0.17

Playing West Virginia on the road made TCU's strength of schedule jump to #28.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma State's home game with Kansas State caused them to drop out
of the Top 50, but it'll be short-lived, after playing Kansas on the road this
coming Big Monday.  A week later, they're playing Oklahoma in Norman.  By then,
maybe everybody in the Big 12 will be in the Top 30.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    --------------------------
Oklahoma        83.08    West Virginia   65.16    Iowa State      156.04    West Virginia   +14.56    Texas           81.00 ( 2)
Iowa State      81.80    Oklahoma State  66.20    Oklahoma        155.21    Kansas          +11.13    Iowa State      80.58 ( 3)
Kansas          80.42    Texas           67.52    Kansas          149.71    Oklahoma        +10.96    Kansas          80.48 ( 4)
West Virginia   79.72    Kansas State    68.12    Baylor          146.29    Iowa State       +7.56    Oklahoma        80.39 ( 6)
Baylor          76.33    Kansas          69.29    West Virginia   144.88    Baylor           +6.38    Texas Tech      79.65 ( 8)
Texas Tech      72.63    TCU             69.88    Texas Tech      142.67    Texas            +4.40    Kansas State    79.38 (11)
Texas           71.92    Baylor          69.96    Texas           139.44    Kansas State     +2.88    West Virginia   78.61 (22)
Kansas State    71.00    Texas Tech      70.04    Kansas State    139.12    Texas Tech       +2.58    TCU             78.29 (28)
Oklahoma State  68.64    Oklahoma        72.13    TCU             136.24    Oklahoma State   +2.44    Baylor          78.20 (30)
TCU             66.36    Iowa State      74.24    Oklahoma State  134.84    TCU              -3.52    Oklahoma State  77.33 (53)