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Updated Big 12 Odds - KU once again the favorite...barely

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CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 2 months ago #3944 by CorpusJayhawk

Both KU and WVU are favored in all remaining games. KU has the slightly easier schedule so they project to win more games. West Virginia has Texas on the road and Oklahoma at home this week. They could easily lose both. There are 6 games left but KU has played the toughest games . We still play Baylor and Texas on the road though and those will be tough. It's amazing this team has put themselves in this situation again to win the Big 12. A 4 game winning streak will do that. OU has Texas and West Virginia on the road and Baylor at home. They also have Texas Tech on the road up next Wednesday which is no cake walk. With some real luck KU could be 2 games ahead of the 2nd place team in 7 days. Wouldn't that be nice.

-Projected Conference Wins-		
Team        	Wins	
-----------	------	
Kansas      	13.4	
West Virginia	13.3	
Oklahoma     	11.7	
Iowa St.     	10.4	
Baylor       	9.9	
Texas        	9.5	
Texas Tech   	7.5	
Kansas St.   	6.1	
Oklahoma St. 	4.8	
TCU          	3.4

--Probability of Winning Big 12 Title--		
Team        	Solo	Shared
-----------	------	------
Kansas      	35.1%	62.8%
West Virginia	32.6%	60.0%
Oklahoma    	2.0%	10.2%
Iowa St.    	0.1%	0.8%
Baylor      	0.0%	0.6%
Texas       	0.0%	0.3%
Texas Tech  	0.0%	0.0%
Kansas St.   	0.0%	0.0%
Oklahoma St.	0.0%	0.0%
TCU         	0.0%	0.0%

--KU Schedule-Probability of Winning--		
Opponent   	City        	Prob
-----------	-----------	--------
Baylor      	Lawrence    	100.0%
Oklahoma    	Lawrence    	100.0%
Texas Tech  	Lubbock     	100.0%
West Virginia	Morgantown  	0.0%
TCU         	Lawrence    	100.0%
Oklahoma St. 	Stillwater  	0.0%
Texas       	Lawrence    	100.0%
Iowa St.     	Ames        	0.0%
Kansas St.   	Lawrence    	100.0%
TCU         	Fort Worth  	100.0%
West Virginia	Lawrence    	100.0%
Oklahoma    	Norman      	100.0%
Oklahoma St. 	Lawrence    	90.1%
Kansas St.   	Manhattan   	63.2%
Baylor      	Waco        	54.5%
Texas Tech  	Lawrence    	87.2%
Texas       	Austin      	64.4%
Iowa St.     	Lawrence    	75.8%

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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konza63
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8 years 2 months ago #3945 by konza63

Good stuff as always, Corpus.

Re:

We still play Baylor and Texas on the road though and those will be tough.

Don't sleep on Statey (aka the Grapes). Like I said the other day when you posted the odds, I'd actually flip the win probability of the Baylor and K-Suck games, with winning in Manhattan possibly being tougher than winning in Waco. I could go into all the reasons for that, but they're pretty well known by now. Bottom line: We SHOULD win that one--actually should win it going away if we continue to hit on multiple cylinders as we have the last 3 games--but some very odd things seem to happen when we travel out near the Konza Prairie...

Second point: I'll take a shared title any day (though obviously a solo title is preferred). A title is a title, and the streak would remain intact.

Just win, Baby!

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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mpeterson44
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8 years 2 months ago #3950 by mpeterson44

I like those percentages a lot better than a week ago! And Oklahoma still has to play at WV so one of them is going to loose more ground on us. WV also still has to play at Texas as we do. We must be playing above expectations lately so that is also a positive. The past week was huge for us. Keep up the intensity guys!! We just have to take care of business one game at a time. Playing team ball. ROCK CHALK

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sasnak
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8 years 2 months ago #3958 by sasnak

Texas is starting to gel and get the Smart system. I haven't forgotten last year at KSU and I certainly don't want a repeat of that

It'll feel better when it stops hurting

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DocBlues
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8 years 2 months ago #3987 by DocBlues

Nice to see OU's chances of winning down to 1 in 10. Looks like a 2-horse face.

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porthawk
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8 years 2 months ago #4000 by porthawk

I'm glad we caught Texas (in Lawrence) when we did, i.e. before their seemingly recent uptick. In that downswing that we had, that UT game could easily have been another conference loss.

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