1 game to go in the Big 12 season

Original post kept below for the record. The latest can be found at www.rockchalk.com/index.php/forum/basket...season?start=20#5332

ORIGINAL POST:
6 games to go in the Big 12 seasonAfter Saturday night, everyone had 6 games left.

Regarding the leaders --
KU and WVU have 3 home and 3 road games left. IMO KU has a slight edge with it's remaining opponents.
OU has 4 road and 2 home games left.
Advantage - again, KU, but no room for error.

At best, KU can end on a sweep and WVU falls at least once, leaving KU all alone in 1st.
At second best for KU, both teams win 6 straight and tie for the title.
We won't talk about any other possibilities at this point so as not to possibly offend the basketball gods.

As far as Shaka Smart's Longhorns, today's loss to ISU was huge. Texas has just 2 road games left, at KSU and OSU. The 'Horns should win both, but they have a good chance of losing at least one, IMO most likely in Manhattan. If they had won tonight, they would have been within striking distance, tied with OU at 1 game back, and with home games left against KU, WVU and OU, the 3 teams ahead of them. Today's loss in Ames was a definite setback for them. Thank you, Cyclones!

NEXT UP FOR OUR JAYHAWKS -- The Cowboys come to Lawrence to get lost in the Phog! Here's to our Jayhawks ensuring that event happens!

ROCK CHALK JAYHAWK KU!

REMAINING ROAD GAMES FOR THE TOP 6 ENTERING THE WEEK
KU - KSU, BU, tu; projected loses: 1 (tu. Hope I am wrong about tu as I was about OU!)
WV - tu, OSU, BU; projected losses: 1 (tu)
OU - TT, WV, tu, TCU; projected losses: 2 (WV, tu)
BU - tu, TCU, OU; projected losses: 2 (tu, OU)
ISU - BU, WV, KU; projected losses: 3
tu - KSU, OSU; projected losses: 1 KSU

REMAINING HOME GAMES FOR THE TOP 6 ENTERING THE WEEK
KU - OSU, TT, ISU; projected losses: 0 (guys, please don't prove me wrong! )
WV - OU, ISU, TT; projected losses: 0 (would love anyone to prove me wrong)
OU - OSU, BU; projected losses: 0
BU - ISU, KU, WV; projected losses: 2 (KU, WV)
ISU - TCU, KSU, OSU; projected losses: 0
tu - WV, BU, KU, OU; projected losses: 0 (can KU win in Austin and make this at least a 1?)

HE, I pinned this at the top for now, since it's a nice, handy reference for everyone to have available at all times. As you update it going forward, let's keep it pinned (if that sounds good to you).

Thanks for doing it!

Looking at your nice "cheat sheet," HawkErrant, it seems to me that KU's best hope for #12 (shared or solo) is to have WVU lose two more games and OU to lose one more. That would give KU a two-game cushion with our two key crown competitors, meaning we could conceivably suffer two losses among the following (@ KSU, @ Bay, @ UT, or--shudder at the thought--home vs. ISU) and still share the crown. NOTE: I'm talking worst-case scenarios here, folks, so don't shoot the messenger.

For the above to happen, looking at the more "viable" loss candidates for OU and WVU, I would lean toward the following (and root for same):

* OU wins at WVU, but loses at UT

* WVU loses at home to OU, and also loses on the road at Texas.

I don't really see WVU losing any other games than those (though home vs. ISU won't be a gimme), which is why I think their beating OU might be very important for KU--if/if/if we slip up and lose another game. If that happens, then OU taking down WVU in Morgantown could become essential for KU to even just share the crown.

Bottom line: this race is far, far from over, sports fans. We need to completely hold serve at home, and hopefully pull out some VERY tough wins on the road. I think winning 2 out of 3 at KSU, BAY, and UT is going to be huge--and we'll need all 3, potentially, if WVU wins at home vs. OU.

Thoughts? And is my math correct?

... one of these...

Two wascally fellows (they were very mod in their way)


Two gents who work well together (they were quite mod in their day)


Two very questionable guys (so mod they questioned everything anyone had to say)


or two wild and crazy guys (so mod they aren't even who you would think after that lead in...)


(BTW, with the exception of duo dos, I'd always be the guy on the right and Konza the one on the left. He might disagree with that, but that he can't help, it's his nature... )

I think it's more like these cats:



And sorry, I'm definitely the guy on the right in each case (from the eyes of the viewer, not the subjects)! Daffy over Bugs all the way, and "Joliet" Jake for sure...

... but I think you are much more Bugs/Dan/Hugh than Daffy/Dick/Stephen -- methinks I'm just a wee bit wackier than you, my analytical amigo. Fry in "Gosford Park" or guest stinting on "Bones" -- I could *so* see me in those roles. I'd say I was just "telling it like it is", but alas, that would be me stealing your Howard instead of using my Dandy Don singing "Turn out the lights, the party's over".

I do have one heck of a Howard Cosell impersonation in my quiver, but I'm also a decent crooner, so I'm not sure about you in the Dandy Don role. Then again, Dandy Don didn't exactly set the world on fire with his pipes... LOL

Smoke 'em, if you will... 1,000 acres* of flaming flunkin, as far as the eye can see!




* www.ku.edu/about/campuses/

Mmmm, that was tasty!

Now to skin some cats!

Also added "next game"s to the standings table.
Will do a new "For the Weekend" post after Wednesday's games are over.

Big games for Tuesday (ESPN2 except for KSU @TCU on ESPNNews) are
6:00 CST - WVU @tu, followed by
8:00 CST - ISU @BU
and the final Tuesday game is KSU @TCU at 7:00 CST.

OU @TT is 8:00 CST Wednesday on ESPNU.

OU at Tech (8:00 PM CST on ESPNU) is the last game before the weekend.
Standings as of yesterday's games:After tonight, everyone has 5 games left.

I'm assuming there are a bunch of Jayhawks pulling for the Red Raiders to strengthen their NCAA tournament case tonight, right?

I do like Tubby, so heck, yeah, especially since it would drop OU two back from KU, and then set things up for the Sooners to do the same to the Mountaineers.

Yep, rooting for TT.

But barring that upset, it gets more complicated. If we could know in advance that UT was going to knock off the Sooners in Austin, we could then completely root for them at WVU. But we obviously won't know that in advance. And if the Sooners go in there and knock off WVU, but then beat UT, it means we can only lose one game the rest of the way (if OU holds serve in their lesser games) in order to simply share the title--not gain it outright.

Bottom line: it's tricky!

Note well -- the original time posted was the EST, it has been corrected to 8:00 pm CST.
(Curse you, ESPN, for stating everything in EST!)

After Wednesday night, everyone has 5 games left.

Regarding the leaders --

KU has 3 road and 2 home games left, including the season finale Senior Night(DAY?) game against ISU.
WVU is one game behind and has 2 road and 3 road games left.
Last time I wrote "IMO KU has a slight edge with it's remaining opponents."
I have no idea what I was thinking or drinking.
KU does have the slight edge after the OU game as we have the 1 game lead, but we also have the tougher remaining schedule.

OU, tu and BU are now 2 games back.
OU and BU each have 3 road and 2 home games left
tu has 2 road and 3 home games left, and may just represent the biggest threat to KU after WVU, given the remaining KU game in Austin.

BOTTOM LINE:
KU takes care of business the last 5 games and #12 is all theirs.
Lose 1, and a tie with WVU is very possible, since the Mountaineers look good to win their 5 left.
Lose 2 and WVU, tu, OU and BU all have a shot at a share.

NEXT UP FOR OUR JAYHAWKS -- Time to turn "doom" to "gloom" for the Manhattanites.

ROCK CHALK JAYHAWK KU!

REMAINING ROAD GAMES FOR THE TOP 6 ENTERING THE WEEKEND
KU - KSU, BU, tu; projected loses: 1 (tu. Hope I am wrong about tu as I was about OU!)
WV - OSU, BU; projected losses: 0
OU - WV, tu, TCU; projected losses: 2 (WV, tu; hope I am wrong about WVU)
BU - tu, TCU, OU; projected losses: 2 (tu, OU)
ISU - WV, KU; projected losses: 2
tu - KSU, OSU; projected losses: 1 KSU

REMAINING HOME GAMES FOR THE TOP 6 ENTERING THE WEEK
KU - TT, ISU; projected losses: 0 (guys, please don't prove me wrong! )
WV - OU, ISU, TT; projected losses: 0 (would love anyone, but especially OU, to prove me wrong)
OU - OSU, BU; projected losses: 0
BU - KU, WV; projected losses: 2 (KU, WV)
ISU - TCU, KSU, OSU; projected losses: 0
tu - BU, KU, OU; projected losses: 0 (can KU win in Austin and make this at least a 1?)

I'm very proud of KU this season, but we're certainly not out of the woods yet. Yes, national pundits are already writing their columns about Death, Taxes, and KU winning the Big 12, but those could just as easily wind up being jinxes as being prophetic if we don't close out strong.

Our remaining schedule is a doozy. As in a really tough batch of games. There literally isn't a single "gimme" in the bunch:

* At K-State: The Grapes' Super Bowl. Tickets reduced to $2 apiece to fill the place full of Cousin Eddies. Refs could skew toward the Purps. KU hasn't played dominantly in old "AFHW" in ages. Pretty tough challenge.

* At Baylor: Coming on now. Big win over ISU. Climbing the national polls as post-season looms. Seeking revenge from one of KU's biggest butt-stompings of the year. Pretty tough challenge.

* Texas Tech: Once looked like the "gimme" in the home stretch, but it certainly isn't anymore. It's in the Barn, but they are the hottest team in the league next to KU. The Fighting Tubbies will be playing with house money and nothing to lose. Reasonably tough challenge.

* At Texas: Another team on the rise. Seeking to avenge the Lawrence loss. Playing in their friendly confines. Tough to beat Shaka twice in the same year. Lots of good athletes. Ridley could return? Still in the mix for league crown given easier road schedule and tougher games all at home. Could be a must-win for KU (relative to whomever might be threatening us by then) if there have been any slip-ups above. Very tough challenge.

* Iowa State: Senior Night (day). In the Barn. Clear advantage KU, right? Not so fast. ISU owned us (thumped us) in Ames. Didn't have to even sweat down the stretch. Lots of athletes who love to play against KU. Niang's last game at AFH. Ellis's last game at AFH. ISU likely needing a win to keep (or gain) momentum heading into post-season. Clones have consistently come closest to beating KU at AFH over recent years. Much tougher challenge than people probably realize.

Bottom line: The OU and WVU losses this week definitely helped...and an OU win over WVU this weekend would help even more. But there is a LOT of basketball still to be played, so don't break out the bubbly for #12 just yet. Color me "guardedly optimistic," yet prepared to watch with one eye closed, chewing on a straw, and hanging on to some furniture at various points over the next two weeks.

Let's do this, Hawks!

Oh my, my!
Oh h*** yes!
No way we're out of these woods yet!

(With absolutely no apologies whatsoever to Spock or TP&tH)

I posted that with a universal audience in mind; definitely not directed at you, as the originator.

I've known all along we had a tough closeout ahead, but even today had to do a bit of a double-take. With not a single gimme to be had, it's clearly, IMO, the toughest schedule for all of the contenders. (K-State might be considered the most winnable game, or a plausible gimme, for any other team--but definitely not for KU, given the rivalry factor for the Grapes and all of the intangibles associated with that)

Just get 'er done, Hawks! Win Saturday, have OU beat WVU, and we'll start to see some semblance of light at the end of the tunnel.

Rock Chalk...

konza63 wrote: I posted that with a universal audience in mind; definitely not directed at you, as the originator.

I've known all along we had a tough closeout ahead, but even today had to do a bit of a double-take. With not a single gimme to be had, it's clearly, IMO, the toughest schedule for all of the contenders. (K-State might be considered the most winnable game, or a plausible gimme, for any other team--but definitely not for KU, given the rivalry factor for the Grapes and all of the intangibles associated with that)

Just get 'er done, Hawks! Win Saturday, have OU beat WVU, and we'll start to see some semblance of light at the end of the tunnel.

Rock Chalk...

Totally understood, just couldn't pass up the quotes once they popped into my head!

To your ending comment -- we can see the light already, we just can't tell if it's daylight or an oncoming train!
A peek of blue sky after this weekend would be so soothing to the nerves.
Let's get 'er done, Jayhawks!