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KU's Probability of Winning 12th Straight Big 12 Title

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CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 4 months ago #193 by CorpusJayhawk

I know it is a few weeks before the conference play starts but I thought it would be interesting to look at the probabilities of winning since KU has a very significant milestone ahead of winning a 12th straight Big 12 title. If you look at the current odds you have to accept that the odds are not on our side.

I have 5 table below (assuming they all format correctly). The first is the probability of winning AT LEAST so many games for each team. For instance the first table says Kansas has essentially a 100% chance of winning at least 5 games and an 88.3% chance of winning 10 games. KU is currently projected to win 12.1 games in the Big 12. (3rd table down). The 2nd table is the probability of winning exactly a certain number of games. For instance KU has a 21% probability of winning exactly 12 games and a 1.4% probability of winning exactly 16 games.

The third table is the current projected wins for each team. Oklahoma is the favorite at this point and is projected to win about 13 games.

The 4th tabel is the probability of winning the Big 12. The "Solo" is the probability of an outright title and the "Shared" is the probability of sharing the Big 12 title with at least one other team.

The final table is KU's schedule and the probability of a victory for each game.

Games	KU	OU	BU	ISU	WVU	KSU	OSU	UT	TCU	TT
0	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
1	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.7%	99.9%
2	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	98.9%	100.0%	97.5%	98.9%
3	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	94.6%	100.0%	89.7%	94.5%
4	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	98.4%	83.9%	99.9%	73.7%	83.5%
5	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	94.3%	65.6%	99.3%	51.6%	65.0%
6	99.9%	100.0%	99.6%	99.9%	100.0%	84.9%	43.5%	97.3%	29.9%	43.0%
7	99.7%	100.0%	98.3%	99.4%	99.8%	68.9%	23.9%	92.0%	14.1%	23.5%
8	98.7%	99.7%	94.4%	97.8%	98.9%	48.7%	10.7%	81.1%	5.3%	10.4%
9	95.6%	98.8%	85.9%	93.2%	96.3%	29.1%	3.9%	64.2%	1.6%	3.7%
10	88.3%	95.9%	71.1%	83.5%	89.7%	14.3%	1.1%	43.9%	0.4%	1.1%
11	74.8%	88.8%	51.5%	67.5%	77.2%	5.7%	0.3%	25.1%	0.1%	0.2%
12	55.6%	75.4%	31.4%	47.2%	58.5%	1.8%	0.0%	11.6%	0.0%	0.0%
13	34.6%	55.7%	15.5%	27.3%	37.3%	0.4%	0.0%	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%
14	17.2%	33.9%	5.9%	12.5%	19.0%	0.1%	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%
15	6.4%	16.0%	1.7%	4.2%	7.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
16	1.7%	5.4%	0.3%	1.0%	2.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	0.3%	1.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Games	KU	OU	BU	ISU	WVU	KSU	OSU	UT	TCU	TT
0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%
1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	2.3%	1.0%
2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	4.3%	0.0%	7.8%	4.4%
3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	10.8%	0.1%	16.0%	11.0%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	4.1%	18.3%	0.5%	22.1%	18.5%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	9.4%	22.0%	2.0%	21.7%	22.1%
6	0.2%	0.0%	1.3%	0.5%	0.2%	15.9%	19.6%	5.4%	15.8%	19.5%
7	1.0%	0.2%	3.8%	1.6%	0.8%	20.2%	13.2%	10.9%	8.7%	13.0%
8	3.1%	0.9%	8.5%	4.5%	2.7%	19.7%	6.8%	16.9%	3.7%	6.7%
9	7.4%	2.9%	14.8%	9.7%	6.5%	14.8%	2.7%	20.3%	1.2%	2.7%
10	13.4%	7.1%	19.6%	16.0%	12.6%	8.6%	0.9%	18.8%	0.3%	0.8%
11	19.2%	13.5%	20.2%	20.4%	18.6%	3.9%	0.2%	13.5%	0.1%	0.2%
12	21.0%	19.7%	15.9%	19.9%	21.2%	1.3%	0.0%	7.3%	0.0%	0.0%
13	17.5%	21.8%	9.6%	14.8%	18.3%	0.4%	0.0%	3.1%	0.0%	0.0%
14	10.7%	18.0%	4.3%	8.3%	11.7%	0.1%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	4.8%	10.6%	1.4%	3.2%	5.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
16	1.4%	4.2%	0.3%	0.9%	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	0.3%	1.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Team        										
-----------										
Oklahoma     	12.8									
Kansas       	12.1									
West Virginia	11.9									
Iowa St.     	11.4									
Baylor       	10.6									
Texas        	9.2									
Kansas St.   	7.3									
Oklahoma St. 	5.1									
Texas Tech   	5.1									
TCU          	4.5

Team        	Solo	Shared								
-----------	------	------								
Kansas      	18.2%	25.5%								
Oklahoma    	41.1%	47.5%								
West Virginia	20.4%	27.9%								
Iowa St.    	12.8%	19.4%								
Baylor      	6.1%	10.6%								
Kansas St.   	0.1%	0.4%								
Texas       	1.4%	3.1%								
Oklahoma St.	0.0%	0.0%								
Texas Tech  	0.0%	0.0%								
TCU         	0.0%	0.0%

Opponent	City      	Prob								
-----------	-----------	--------								
Baylor      	Lawrence  	68.7%								
Oklahoma    	Lawrence  	56.3%								
Texas Tech  	Lubbock   	74.1%								
West Virginia	Morgantown	37.0%								
TCU         	Lawrence  	91.5%								
Oklahoma St. 	Stillwater	74.0%								
Texas       	Lawrence  	75.2%								
Iowa St.     	Ames      	40.0%								
Kansas St.   	Lawrence  	82.5%								
TCU         	Fort Worth	77.2%								
West Virginia	Lawrence  	61.6%								
Oklahoma    	Norman    	32.1%								
Oklahoma St. 	Lawrence  	89.8%								
Kansas St.   	Manhattan 	62.1%								
Baylor      	Waco      	44.5%								
Texas Tech  	Lawrence  	89.8%								
Texas       	Austin    	52.2%								
Iowa St.     	Lawrence  	64.6%

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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Sieverling
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c'86. Call me Dave

8 years 4 months ago #194 by Sieverling

Hic manebimus optime

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CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 4 months ago #195 by CorpusJayhawk

Are telling me you view me like C3PO?

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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Sieverling
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c'86. Call me Dave

8 years 4 months ago #196 by Sieverling

Not at all. I don't like 3PO. Almost as bad as Jar Jar.

I'm really not much a fan of Lucas' Star Wars. I would have much preferred such a quote from Kirk or Reynolds.

Hic manebimus optime

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CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 4 months ago #200 by CorpusJayhawk

I did not see the last 3 Star Wars movies but I liked the 70's movies. I'm with you on original Star Trek. Not sure who Reynolds is though. I have yet to see a Batman movie, a Spiderman movie, a Harry Potter movie or a Hobbit/Lord of the Rings Movie. I'm guessing I am in a minority on this. But I have endless stats on the Jayhawks. Does that count?

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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Sieverling
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8 years 4 months ago #202 by Sieverling

Reynolds is from the short-lived show "Firefly." It was cancelled after it's 13 episode trial season. Fans created such an uproar they made a feature film 3 years later.

Hic manebimus optime

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HawkErrant
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b82, g84 Lift the chorus...

8 years 4 months ago - 8 years 4 months ago #303 by HawkErrant

CorpusJayhawk wrote: I did not see the last 3 Star Wars movies but I liked the 70's movies. I'm with you on original Star Trek. Not sure who Reynolds is though. I have yet to see a Batman movie, a Spiderman movie, a Harry Potter movie or a Hobbit/Lord of the Rings Movie. I'm guessing I am in a minority on this. But I have endless stats on the Jayhawks. Does that count?

As Dave noted, Captain Malcolm Reynolds was the skipper of the Firefly class spaceship Serenity (TV show was named after the ship class, the movie was named after Mal's ship).

Reynolds was played by Nathan Fillion, who plays the eponymous lead in ABC's "Castle". If you have ever watched Castle and noted the occasional joking references to "a TV show I used to like", Castle is referring to Firefly.

Examples --

Castle's favorite Halloween costume is his space cowboy garb from Firefly.

Castle speaks Mandarin Chinese in one episode. Beckett: "Semester abroad?" Castle: "Old TV show..." Future language in show was primarily English with a healthy helping of Mandarin.

Use of "shiny" for good things.

Episode involving a murder at a scifi convention, Castle refers to classic good Scifi such as Trek, Star Wars and that "Josh Weeden show".

Yeah, Anna and I are fans...

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

Last Edit: 8 years 4 months ago by HawkErrant.

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Freestate69
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8 years 4 months ago #345 by Freestate69

Thanks for all the stat work, Corpus. Really good stuff and much appreciated.
What is your source for the odds on these tables? Vegas odds, Sagarin ratings, RPI or other? Thanks!

"Be on your guard. There are older and fouler things than orcs in the deep places of the earth." - Gandalf on passing through Columbia, MO

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CorpusJayhawk
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8 years 4 months ago #354 by CorpusJayhawk

I use Dolphin's odds. Dolphin isn't particularly accurate compared to Sagarin or others I just have used his for a long time so I stick with it. It is fun to track the odds through the season. It is a good proxy for teams that get better vs. teams that get worse or son't change much. As you might expect, KU tends toward getting better in the average season but injuries have a bigger sway more often than not.

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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Freestate69
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8 years 4 months ago #355 by Freestate69

Thanks Corpus. Appreciate the quick reply.

"Be on your guard. There are older and fouler things than orcs in the deep places of the earth." - Gandalf on passing through Columbia, MO

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