Big 12 projection, Round 11

Lots of changes in the projected standings.  Kansas State couldn't get the projected home win
over Baylor, while Texas Tech got an unexpected home win over Iowa State, and that was enough
for Kansas State and Texas Tech to swap places in the projected standings.  Meanwhile, Baylor's
road win in Manhattan, coupled with Texas' road loss in Norman and Iowa State's road loss in
Lubbock, enabled the Bears to jump from sixth to fourth place.  Texas played above expectation,
while Iowa State played below expectation, so they also swapped places.  The net effect is that
Texas stayed fifth, while Iowa State and Baylor swapped fourth and sixth place.  Of course,
ultimately the conference win totals will be integer games, so if we round all the current
projected wins to the nearest integer, we're looking at a three-way tie for the conference
championship.  But whatever the outcome of Saturday's rematch of the Jayhawks and Sooners,
that three-way tie will be broken.  West Virginia is virtually assured of remaining in the top
spot, getting the conference cellar dwellar in Morgantown.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  4  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18  12.82  13.08  13.18  13.50  13.78  13.33    8  3   TCU (Sa)   WV  by 19.6
#  6  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91  13.18  13.72  13.94  13.83  12.86  12.96    8  3   KU  (Sa)   OU  by  3.0
#  5  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17  12.53  12.66  11.95  12.20  12.36  12.85    8  3  @OU  (Sa)   
# 30  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84  11.15  10.53  10.97  10.22   9.99  10.59    7  4   TT  (Sa)   BU  by  7.6
# 31  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68   9.13   8.94   9.05  10.13  10.35  10.25    7  4  @ISU (Sa)   
# 21  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24   9.99  10.28  11.09  10.49  10.85  10.17    6  5   UT  (Sa)   ISU by  4.7
# 55  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79   6.16   5.97   5.77   5.96   5.74   6.46    4  7  @BU  (Sa)   
# 46  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27   6.02   6.61   6.47   6.11   7.11   6.41    3  8  @OSU (Sa)
# 72  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71   6.28   5.73   5.27   5.15   4.72   4.06    2  9   KSU (Sa)   OSU by  0.8
#117  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21   2.74   2.48   2.31   2.41   2.24   2.92    2  9  @WV  (Sa)   

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 11, edging out Real Time,
who had correctly predicted both Oklahoma State's and Iowa State's losses.  Greenfield
retains the season lead, while Real Time is pulling up the rear.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1           2          1+                       2     1     1     +     1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
KSU over BU      0.9   4.0   1.2   1.5   4.5   1.5   7.0   1.7   1.9   2.7   5.0   2.5   0.7   2.6   3.5   3.2    -10    10.9  14.0  11.2  11.5  14.5  11.5  17.0  11.7  11.9  12.7  15.0  12.5  10.7  12.6  13.5  13.2
OSU over TCU     2.3   2.0   2.5   2.0   3.5   1.0  -5.0   2.7   1.1   0.9  -1.0  -0.6   2.7   0.8   3.7   1.2     -7     9.3   9.0   9.5   9.0  10.5   8.0   2.0   9.7   8.1   7.9   6.0   6.4   9.7   7.8  10.7   8.2
KU  over WV      2.4   4.0   3.1   7.0   4.5   7.0  11.0   2.0   3.0   1.3   5.0   2.6   1.5   3.4   4.3   4.2     10     7.6   6.0   6.9   3.0   5.5   3.0   1.0   8.0   7.0   8.7   5.0   7.4   8.5   6.6   5.7   5.8
ISU over TT      2.6   3.0   3.4   2.5  -1.5   2.5  -3.0   2.1   2.3   2.0  -2.0   2.3   2.6   0.7   1.2   2.8     -3     5.6   6.0   6.4   5.5   1.5   5.5   0.0   5.1   5.3   5.0   1.0   5.3   5.6   3.7   4.2   5.8
OU  over UT      8.8  11.0   8.7   8.0   5.0   8.0  15.0   7.1   9.7   9.2   7.0   9.3   9.5  11.4   4.7  14.1      3     5.8   8.0   5.7   5.0   2.0   5.0  12.0   4.1   6.7   6.2   4.0   6.3   6.5   8.4   1.7  11.1

total this round                                                                                                         39.2  43.0  39.7  34.0  34.0  33.0  32.0  38.6  39.0  40.5  31.0  37.9  41.0  39.1  35.8  44.1
previous total                                                                                                          318.1 329.0 322.9 315.0 378.5 319.0 397.0 325.3 333.5 335.4 381.0 331.3 333.8 334.2 362.6 333.5
cumulative                                                                                                              357.3 372.0 362.6 349.0 412.5 352.0 429.0 363.9 372.5 375.9 412.0 369.2 374.8 373.3 398.4 377.6
per game (total of 55)                                                                                                    6.5   6.8   6.6   6.3   7.5   6.4   7.8   6.6   6.8   6.8   7.5   6.7   6.8   6.8   7.2   6.9

Two road wins were projected for Round 11, but neither happened.  Instead Baylor picked
up a road win in Manhattan.  So we're still very close to the long-term average of one
in three road wins.  No road wins are projected for Round 12, though Jayhawk fans would
like to make that projection wrong.

Road wins (18 out of 55)              Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
4 Baylor          ISU TT  OSU KSU     0 Kansas                                 +3 West Virginia 
4 West Virginia   KSU TCU TT  ISU     0 Oklahoma                               +2 Baylor        
3 Iowa State      KSU TCU OSU         0 Texas                                  +2 Kansas        
2 Kansas          TT  TCU             1 West Virginia   UT                     +2 Oklahoma      
2 Oklahoma        OSU BU              2 Baylor          OU  UT                 +2 Texas         
2 Texas           WV  BU              2 Iowa State      BU  WV                 +1 Iowa State    
1 Texas Tech      TCU                 3 Kansas State    WV  ISU BU             -2 Texas Tech    
0 Kansas State                        3 Oklahoma State  OU  BU  ISU            -3 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                      3 Texas Tech      KU  BU  WV             -3 Oklahoma State
0 TCU                                 4 TCU             WV  TT  ISU KU         -4 TCU           

I continue to marvel at Texas Tech's consistency.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +1.44    Texas Tech        6.09    Texas           +0.51 +/- 0.30    Iowa State      +0.24 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma        +0.82    Kansas State      8.13    Oklahoma State  +0.16 +/- 0.31    Oklahoma State  +0.22 +/- 0.19
Kansas          +0.62    Oklahoma          8.46    Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.24    Kansas State    +0.04 +/- 0.14
Texas Tech      +0.35    Iowa State        8.47    TCU             -0.01 +/- 0.28    Oklahoma        -0.03 +/- 0.18
Iowa State      +0.30    TCU               9.29    Texas Tech      -0.05 +/- 0.20    Texas           -0.04 +/- 0.22
Baylor          +0.18    Oklahoma State   10.42    Iowa State      -0.12 +/- 0.25    TCU             -0.07 +/- 0.15
Texas           +0.17    West Virginia    10.42    Kansas          -0.18 +/- 0.34    Kansas          -0.14 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma State  -0.05    Texas            10.58    Baylor          -0.20 +/- 0.34    Baylor          -0.15 +/- 0.18
Kansas State    -0.11    Kansas           10.64    Oklahoma        -0.38 +/- 0.26    Texas Tech      -0.24 +/- 0.12
TCU             -0.35    Baylor           10.69    West Virginia   -0.60 +/- 0.29    West Virginia   -0.49 +/- 0.17

Seven of the Top 11 strengths of schedule are in the Big 12.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    --------------------------
Oklahoma        83.65    West Virginia   66.04    Iowa State      155.88    West Virginia   +14.04    Iowa State      80.46 ( 2)
Iowa State      81.75    Oklahoma State  66.58    Oklahoma        155.52    Oklahoma        +11.78    Texas           80.41 ( 4)
Kansas          80.52    Texas           66.88    Kansas          149.78    Kansas          +11.26    Kansas          79.81 ( 5)
West Virginia   80.08    Kansas State    68.63    Baylor          146.13    Iowa State       +7.63    Oklahoma        79.77 ( 6)
Baylor          76.87    Baylor          69.26    West Virginia   146.13    Baylor           +7.61    Texas Tech      79.25 ( 8)
Texas Tech      72.04    Kansas          69.26    Texas Tech      142.35    Texas            +4.83    West Virginia   79.04 (10)
Texas           71.71    TCU             69.83    Kansas State    140.21    Kansas State     +2.96    Kansas State    79.00 (11)
Kansas State    71.58    Texas Tech      70.30    Texas           138.58    Oklahoma State   +2.58    Baylor          78.00 (31)
Oklahoma State  69.17    Oklahoma        71.87    TCU             137.13    Texas Tech       +1.74    TCU             77.36 (45)
TCU             67.29    Iowa State      74.13    Oklahoma State  135.75    TCU              -2.54    Oklahoma State  77.27 (49)