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KU is starting to reach their full potential

  • ATXJayhawk
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8 years 1 month ago - 8 years 1 month ago #3725 by ATXJayhawk
KU is now #8 in Ken Pom rankings while OU is #5. KU has gone from 16 to 11 in adjOFF and 37 to 27 in adjDEF since monday. OU has gone from 3 to 6 in adjOFF and 23 to 29 in adjDEF. KU is performing better while OU is regressing ever so slightly. Let's not forget that OU just lost at K-State on Saturday by 11 points and they almost lost at home against Texas on Monday. If Texas can take OU down to the wire, then we should hopefully be able to as well.

Lets go through the rankings and actual numbers of both KU and OU:

EFF FG%
KU: 20, 54.9%
OU: 12, 56.1%
-KU is slighty better at shooting.

Turnover %
KU: 100, 16.8%
OU: 112, 16.9%
-KU is slighty better at not turning the ball over

ORB %
KU: 121, 29.5%
OU: 136, 29.1%
-KU is slighty better at getting offensive rebounds

Free Throw Rate
KU: 130, .387
OU: 284, .322
-KU is better at getting to the free throw line

Free Throw %
KU: 107, 71.6%
OU: 73, 72.8%
-OU is slightly better at making free throws

Shooting %
KU: 18, 48.2%
OU: 33, 47.3%
KU actually has a better overall shooting % on the year right now.

Points Per Game
KU: 20, 81.2 ppg
OU: 6, 84.1 ppg
-OU averages more points than KU

Average Scoring Margin
KU: 17, +12.7
OU: 18 +12.7
-It's a tie with the average margin of victory

Defense Points Allowed Per Game
KU: 96, 68.6 ppg
OU: 158, 71.4 ppg
-KU's defense allows fewer points per game

Oppoent Shooting %
KU: 59, 40.9%
OU: 34, 39.0%
-OU's defense allows fewer made shots

My X-factor is 3 point shooting. OU is ranked #1 in three point % with 45.1% KU is ranked 8th with 41.5%. OU attempts 24.3 three-point shots a game (ranked 44th) and makes an average of 11 a game (ranked 4th). KU attempts 19.3 three-point shots a game (ranked 213) and makes an average of 8 a game (ranked 79th). We have to stop OU from making 3's.

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!
Last Edit: 8 years 1 month ago by ATXJayhawk.
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8 years 1 month ago #3726 by Bayhawk
Great numbers ATX. Thanks. My take (two cents at best) is that the home court advantage sways all the stats in favor of OU. :unsure: [Cue Capt. Obvious]: We MUST take the crowd out of this game early!!! :evil:


RC

The end is nothing; the road is all.
-- Jules Michelet

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8 years 1 month ago #3727 by NotOstertag
Last night was certainly a step in the right direction, but they put a bigger whuppin on us in Morgantown, so if you compared the two games, WVU might look better.

TCU was a game we should have won against a pretty mediocre team.

OU losing at KSU is the same kind of head scratcher as us losing at OSU (and hopefully a trigger of a slump). Texas almost beating them in Norman is certainly interesting.

As for the 3 pointer, I don't want to rely on it to win a road game. We need Landon and Perry to keep up what they've been doing and hopefully get some contributions from Traylor and the freshmen.

One thing about the 3 pointer is that on the full season, my eyes tell me that we couldn't miss in the 1st half of the season, but have cooled off some. Not sure if the same is true for OU, but I'd like to see "recent' (past 5 games?) 3 point stats as I think they'd be more accurate.

Bottom line, last night was a great win. Winning at TCU was a "good" win. A win at OU indicates an absolute trend with momentum. A loss in a well played game (such as OU's loss in Lawrence) indicates a possible trend in the favorable direction. Getting spanked in Norman indicates that we're still not out of the woods.

Good news is we have an extra day to prepare than the normal Sunday/Wednesday schedule. Then again, OU has an extra-extra day and don't have to travel. It's gonna be a war, with both teams backed into a corner.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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8 years 1 month ago - 8 years 1 month ago #3729 by ATXJayhawk
Ask and you shall receive NotO:

OU's 3 Point Stats last 5 games:
Texas At OU: 9-22, 40.9%
OU At K-State: 6-24, 25.0%
TCU At OU: 11-30, 36.7%
OU At LSU: 14-29, 48.3%
Texas Tech at OU: 12-23, 52.2%

KU's 3 Point Stats last 5 games:
West Virginia At KU: 7-17, 41.2%
KU At TCU:6-22, 27.3%
K-State At KU: 7-18, 38.9%
Kentucky At KU: 8-17, 47.1%
KU At Iowa State: 5-17, 29.4%

OU has cooled off slightly from three. They have 9, 6, 11, 14, and 12 made three's in their last five games. KU's 3 point shooting has been pretty consistent with 7, 6, 7, 8, and 5 made three's in their last five games.

I'd expect OU to make 8 or 9 three's while KU will make 7 or 8 three's in Saturdays game.

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!
Last Edit: 8 years 1 month ago by ATXJayhawk.
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8 years 1 month ago #3731 by konza63
ATXJay, thanks a ton for posting good quant-takes throughout the season. Along with the work of Corpus and Asteroid, it adds just that much more texture to an already great board. Hat tip...

As for OU, I expect Self to take the "Belichick" approach and focus on neutering (or at least semi-containing) their paramount weapon. We all know who that is. The two-pronged question is What's our best hope for doing that? and Do we have anyone that can guard him in Man and sufficiently contain him?

In the first (epic) game, Selden took him first and Hield absolutely blistered us. Then Mason begged at halftime to take him, Self obliged, and Mason stayed on him like a pit bull (to his credit)...yet Hield still went off.

So who draws the assignment this time around? (Knowing full well that you can't routinely double him, because of their other solid scoring threats) Hopefully Self and the staff are reviewing not only the game one film, but also those games where Hield struggled the most (like the Texas game, until he came up big in the clutch at the end).

The corollary to such an approach, if we can contain Hield decently, is we need to win some of the other position battles as well. It would be nice, in that respect, if we could completely de-fang Cousins like we did in game one. It would also be nice if we could put Mason (rather than Graham) on Woodard, since Graham is a matador in open space--and once the faster/more agile guard blasts past him, our help D must kick in, which will often open up the dish to Spangler or Lattin. Hence, go with Frank there, if you ask me. (He's not perfect at this, either, but he's far better than Matador Graham)

We also need Perry to come up huge, like he has of late. Do that, and it opens up the ability to dish it off to Landon (if he can stay "on" on the offensive end--by going up strong to the rim, not putting it on the floor, and dishing OUT when there is no clear shot).

I am more bullish on KU now (after last night and the intangibles that I saw with TCU). But that just means I'm more 50-50 about our chances in this one than I was a week ago (when it was more like 30-70).

Self is presently pushing the right buttons (apparently with all of our starters, but most definitely with Lucas and Traylor, who now have newfound confidence and bounce). Traylor still scares the bejeebus out of me when he's on the floor (and it's been noted that we tanked pretty soundly when he was on the floor last night), but Self has clearly challenged his manhood (Traylor admitted as much after the TCU game, saying Self knows how to push his buttons) and that could mean he'll punch above his weight class again come Saturday. If he and Lucas can do that, Ellis can be his steady self, we get some timely energy-lifting threes, we play D like we did last night (excepting Graham), and we can semi-contain Hield, we'll likely come out with a massive, race-changing win on the road. Yes, that's a lot to ask, but you already knew that it will take an "A" game to pull it out (which is precisely what I'm describing above).

Rock Chalk...

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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8 years 1 month ago #3734 by NotOstertag
Great stuff, ATX! Thanks.

I agree with your total number of 3s estimate, but keep in mind that in this 5 game sample, KU is averaging a respectable but not amazing 36%, whereas OU is averaging a much stronger 41%. In that sample, OU has 2 games at over 45% to KU's 1. KU's failed to break 30% twice and OU has only done so once.

In Norman, I can't imagine that we'll shoot the lights out, and we can probably only hope to contain Hield to an extent. To me, success will dependent upon playing as good of a defense as possible (particularly on the perimeter), and making enough shots to keep OU from being able to pack the interior.

Thanks for posting this stuff. At this point in the year, "who's hot" vs. "who's not" is as big a stat in my book (if not bigger) than season-long data.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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8 years 1 month ago #3737 by LasJayhawk

NotOstertag wrote: OU losing at KSU is the same kind of head scratcher as us losing at OSU (and hopefully a trigger of a slump). Texas almost beating them in Norman is certainly interesting.


Lon at OU can't seem to win at KSU.
Bill at KU can't seem to win at OSU
Roy at NC can't seem to win against KU

I seem to think there is some common denominator somewhere.

Yea,yea,yea, keepin' the faith
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8 years 1 month ago #3740 by ATXJayhawk
Thanks for the kind words everyone. I can't overstate how much OU loves to shoot from three. Bills focus for the OU game should be on preventing Hield, Cousins, and Woodard from hitting 3's in that order. Make them feel uncomfortable at getting open looks from three.

OU currently gets 39.1% of their points from 3's which is ranked 12th in the nation. They only get 43.6 of their points from 2's which is ranked 327th. Obviously, we need to lock down the perimeter and force OU to drive to the lane if we are going to have success against them. Also, agressive defense, steals, and easy transition baskets will be our key.

WE DO NOT NOT WANT TO GET INTO A SHOOTING MATCH WITH THEM AT HOME.

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!

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8 years 1 month ago #3743 by konza63
There's probably a good article to be written on this--aptly titled "The Returnee's Curse" or something like that--by a national commentator.

Incidentally, I don't think Pitino has a very good record at Louisville when returning to Lexington. Not sure how Mike Anderson has fared with Arkansas in Columbia, but it'd be interesting to see how this has played out over the years, across coaches.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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8 years 1 month ago #3744 by JRhawk
Kruger and Self's inability to win against their alma mater are special cases. Kruger was born and raised in Kansas, played and later coached for KSU. Self was born and raised in OK, played and later coached for OSU. Roy is a North Carolinian who coached for KU - he loses to KU because KU has as good or better teams than he has at UNC. Pitino is a New Yorker who played at UMASS, Anderson an Alabaman who played at Tulsa.

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