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Big Monday in Stillwater (NB: moved to ESPN2 @8PM CT)

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9 months 4 weeks ago - 9 months 4 weeks ago #24611 by HawkErrant
First, be sure to check out the pinned SCHEDULE & RESULTS update here.

Now, for more after you've read that...
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Bill's Jayhawks teams are 5-7 in GIA, but 2-1 over the last 3 years (1-1 since third year OKS HC Mike Boynton). NOT a trend yet, but it is tied for the best 3 year record of any 3 year span since the conference went to 10 teams and started the 18 game home & away schedule nine years ago for the AY2011-12 season. KU is 4-4 in GIA since then, after being 1-3 in GIA in Self's first 8 years from 2003-04 through 2010-11.

This OKS team (10-9, 0-6) is not as good as usual. Coming off beating A&M (9-9, 3-3) in Reed Arena on Saturday they might have some steam, but really?

OKS shot 55% (42% 3P, compared to season 41%, 31% 3P) against a less than stellar KenPom #92 AdjD A&M to win.

A&M shot their normal 39%(28% 3P, compared to 40%, 26% 3P for the season) against the KenPom #45 AdjD of OKS.

KU has the #3 AdjD and #7 AdjO in KenPom playing against the #140 AdjO and #45 AdjD of OKS.

IF OKS can get Dok in foul trouble, they have a slim chance.

KU by 7, and only that close because (1) no Dave and (2) it is a bal-chatri for Cowboy Bill's Jayhawks.

Okay, that's part 1. Someone pointed out to me that Moss (0-3 from 3 v Tennessee), Dotson (0-3) and Braun (1-4) need to do better against OKS or we will be hurting. That prompted me to do some more research.
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Their last three games Lindsey Waters III has hit over 45% from 3 for OKS.
Both he (3-6) and Dziagwa (4-8 ) hit 50% against TAMU, so they cannot be left unguarded at the trey line.

Since Big Dave is still sitting out, let's compare OKS to Tennessee some more.

Just looking at their KenPom #s and stats to date they look comparable...
AdjD: OKS 45, Tenn 20
AdjO: OKS 140, Tenn 128
... until considering that Tenn's new starting guard Santiago Vescovi (the standout from Uruguay who is proving to be their best 3PT and FT shooter) was cleared to play late and has only played in the last 7 out of their 19 games to date. True, they are 4-3 in those games, with one being a road loss to a weak Georgia team, but the other two losses have been to SEC leading LSU and yesterday's loss in AFH to KU.

Then consider that OKS returned 5 starters, 78% of its scoring from last season, while Tenn returned just 30% and it seems that Tenn is already better and has more upside to get better as the year goes on, especially with Serbian freshman 7 footer Uros Plasvic now approved to play (he got just 4 minutes against KU, and part of that was to "Hack-a-Shaq" Dok).

So while both teams are KenPom Top 50 on Defense, neither team is a giant on offense, but again, Tennessee has new guys playing.

Final consideration is that OKS has yet to win a Big 12 game, and after starting the season 7-0 went 2-3 before conference play began, the 2 wins being a 6 point win at Houston and a 82-31 pounding of hapless SE Louisiana.
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And finally regarding OKS compared to Tennessee...

OKS’ sole certain advantage is the game is in GIA. Bill is never his best there.

But this year I don’t see that being enough unless they can get Dok in foul trouble.

Also remember regarding KenPom rankings — are just that, ordinal rankings. Tenn being #128 AdjO and OKS being #140 just means there are 11 other teams graded worse than Tenn but better than OKS on offense. Likewise for AdjD, 24 worse than Tennessee but better than OKS. We can’t see the gaps between each team, we just see the order in which they are ranked. The actual qualitative gaps may be very small, meaning not a lot of difference between two teams, or may be very large, meaning light-years of difference between any two teams.


One last thing --

ALL signs point to a KU win unless they can get Dok in foul trouble.

Here's hoping they can't, and the signs are otherwise right.

“The world is a dangerous place to live, not because of the people who are evil but because of the people who don’t do anything about it” ~Albert Einstein
Last Edit: 9 months 4 weeks ago by HawkErrant.
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9 months 4 weeks ago #24613 by NotOstertag
As I said last week, we really caught a break schedule wise when it comes to the suspensions. We really need a backup for Dok as evidenced from yesterday and how different the team played when he was in vs. out. Getting to play the last place team in the league while Dave is out is a lucky break, and could only have been improved had the game been scheduled for Lawrence.

Dok needs to play "bare minimum" defense for the 1st half. Don't worry about getting blocks, just stand straight up and make them shoot over you. I think he has 3 inches on their biggest guy, so he's starting with an advantage anyway. Meanwhile, if he keeps doing what he can do on offense (ahem...no moving screens, big fella) and get to halftime with only one or zero fouls, then we should be in good shape and he can resume his Dikembe Mutombo finger wagging quest.

One thing is certain, OSU will be pumped up and will go right at Dok hoping to get him on the bench. I'd rather watch OSU get a couple easy baskets than see Dok in foul trouble early.

STILL more conference championships than home losses
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9 months 4 weeks ago #24615 by JRhawk
The only thing that would have been better is playing on Wed like the rest of Big 12 games this week. Not that two more days would have been enough time to get Enaruna adapted to being a post player. On second thought, given all of KU's past problems in Stillwater, maybe not having any more time to think about it is a good thing. RCJHKU
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9 months 4 weeks ago #24616 by HawkErrant
NotO, I agree on all points.
I would add Dok needs to stop pushing guys off with both hands, the refs missed several times he successfully did so v Tenn.

JR, I was agreeing with you and then you made me LOL with your insight into the mental plus of a Big Monday game. Too true!

“The world is a dangerous place to live, not because of the people who are evil but because of the people who don’t do anything about it” ~Albert Einstein
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9 months 4 weeks ago #24622 by hoshi
HE, I agree on Dok's pushes. After rewatching the game, he should have had at least one if not more fouls. As Bilas stated, once he got position, he did not have to push off. Hope someone talked to him after watching a tape (so old fashioned) of the game.
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9 months 4 weeks ago #24624 by hoshi
PS, the game is now on ESPN2 due to a special on Kobe Bryant being shown on ESPN tonight.
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