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predictions for West Virginia game

  • asteroid
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8 years 3 months ago #1693 by asteroid 
The latest conference projection shows it to be a three-horse race, so the
road games against the other two contenders are huge.  Today's game is one
of those.

Sagarin makes Kansas a 1.6 point underdog, with a 43.2 percent probability of
winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 151.2 points per game,
that suggests a final score of Kansas 75, West Virginia 76, or less, considering
how the total points for Kansas have been skewed by a triple overtime affair and
the total points for West Virginia have been skewed by a double overtime affair.
Kansas has been playing 1.9 points above expectation, but West Virginia has been
playing 2.5 points above expectation, which means that Kansas could be a 2.1 point
underdog.  Kansas has a positive trend, while West Virginia has a negative trend,
and while both teams have negative mental toughness ratings, West Virginia's is
decidely larger while Kansas' isn't statistically significant.  Taken at face
value, Kansas becomes a 4.3 point favorite.  Kansas has played 7 of its 14
Division I games above expectation by enough to overcome a 1.6 point deficit,
corresponding to a 50 percent chance of winning the game.  Meanwhile, West
Virginia has played just 5 of its 15 games below expectation by enough to
squander a 1.6 point advantage, corresponding to a 33 percent chance of losing
the game.  Those average to just a 41.5 percent chance of Kansas winning the
game, a tad less than based on the Sagarin ratings shown above.

Massey makes Kansas a 1.0 point underdog, with a 48 percent probability of winning
the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 78, West Virginia 79.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 4.6 units, as well as the
better adjusted defense by 1.3 units, which combine to a 5.9 units advantage for
Kansas.  With an average of 72.4 possessions per game, the margin for Kansas works
out to 4.3 points on a neutral court.  Subtract Sagarin's 3.4 point home court
advantage, and the margin becomes 0.9 points.  The ratings suggest a score of
Kansas 75, West Virginia 74.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 2.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 78 to 75.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in just three of eight categories, namely assists per game, effective field goal
percentage, and turnover percentage.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has
the advantage in four of seven categories; West Virginia holds opponents to fewer
points per game, gets more offensive rebounds per game, and gets more steals per
game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 3.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at 1.0
points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  With a total points projection
of 157, the implied final score is Kansas 80, West Virginia 77.  Meanwhile, he
claims the Vegas total is 154.0, which would imply a final score of Kansas 77.5,
West Virginia 76.5 (you pick the roundings).  Judging from the tabulated win-loss
numbers, Dunkel's rankings are still way out-of-date; Duke is his #1 team!

Real Time gives Kansas a 1.0 point margin, with a 51.4 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 81, West Virginia 80.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin makes Kansas a 1.9 point underdog, with a 43.8 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 75, West Virginia 76,
with the rounding working in the Jayhawks' favor.

Finally!  Colley has ranked Kansas (#2) ahead of Texas Tech (#18).

Whitlock's ratings differential is 4.9 units in favor of Kansas, but we need to
calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling factor of 0.726
just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick with that value for
consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 3.5 point favorite on a neutral court,
but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes
the favorite by just 0.1 points.  Overtime, anyone?

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 1.0 points in favor of
Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage,
and Kansas becomes a 2.4 point underdog.

LRMC has Kansas ranked four spots ahead of West Virginia.

Seven Overtimes makes Kansas a 2.0 point underdog, corresponding to a 44 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 75 to 77.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 0.8 point margin.

DPPI makes Kansas a 3.5 point underdog.

There is one common opponent, namely San Diego State:

KU  +13 SDSU on road (+17 neutral)
WV  +22 SDSU neutral (+22 neutral)
KU   -9 WV   on road ( -5 neutral)

That's the most pessimistic of the various prognostications.

Players to watch:  Guard Jevon Carter plays the most minutes and dishes the most
assists.  Forward Devin Williams scores the most points and grabs the most rebounds,
but also commits the most turnovers.  Guard Daxter Miles Jr. is their leading thief.
Forward Elijah Macon blocks the most shots.  Forward Nathan Adrian commits the most
personal fouls, which probably explains why he plays the eighth-most minutes.  Guard
Tarik Phillip is tied with Carter for the most assists per game.  Daxter Miles Jr.
missed the last game with an ankle injury but is expected to play today.  Juwan
Staten is gone!  Finally!

The average of the various prognostications is 0.8 points in favor of West Virginia.
The projected final score would be Kansas 75, West Virginia 76.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  1   # 10   #  1   #  1   #  1   +1.9    8.1   +0.66 +/- 0.52   -0.06 +/- 0.21
West Virginia  #  5   #165   #  6   #  8   # 13   +2.5   10.0   -0.52 +/- 0.61   -0.53 +/- 0.21
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  2  #  3   #  1   # 24   #  1  #  2    # 14    #  1   #  9   #  3   #  6
West Virginia  #  9  # 63   # 10   #212   #  7  # 33    # 15    # 15   #185   # 26   #161
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  2   #  3   #  1   #  3   #  3   #  1   #  2   1.045   14-1     #  1  # 98
West Virginia  # 10   # 10   #  4   # 11   # 25   #  6   #  7   0.654   14-1     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  2  #  8    #  1  # 27    #  4  # 76    #  5  # 17    #  1  #  8    #  1  #  1
West Virginia  # 14  #159    #  6  # 83    #  8  # 89    #  9  #118    #  9  #127    #  5  #152

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 27-4:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #316 Northern Colorado          109  72   +36.98    +0.02
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              73  79    +1.20    -7.20
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 54 UCLA                        92  73   +12.78    +6.22
NEUT   # 16 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +4.95    +2.05
HOME   #281 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +33.53    -0.53
HOME   #101 Harvard                     75  69   +20.48   -14.48
HOME   #255 Holy Cross                  92  59   +31.54    +1.46
HOME   # 53 Oregon State                82  67   +16.15    -1.15
HOME   #158 Montana                     88  46   +24.86   +17.14
AWAY   # 79 San Diego State             70  57   +11.26    +1.74
HOME   # 92 UC Irvine                   78  53   +19.25    +5.75
HOME   # 30 Baylor                     102  74   +12.26   +15.74
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma                   109 106    +5.18    -2.18    3 overtimes
AWAY   # 41 Texas Tech                  69  59    +7.81    +2.19
AWAY   #  6 West Virginia                         -1.57             0.432
HOME   #135 TCU                                  +22.68             0.995
AWAY   # 90 Oklahoma State                       +12.24             0.907
HOME   # 39 Texas                                +14.40             0.926
AWAY   # 26 Iowa State                            +4.71             0.714
HOME   # 24 Kentucky                             +11.09             0.875
HOME   # 43 Kansas State                         +14.65             0.965
AWAY   #135 TCU                                  +15.92             0.965
HOME   #  6 West Virginia                         +5.19             0.716
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma                              -1.58             0.424
HOME   # 90 Oklahoma State                       +19.00             0.980
AWAY   # 43 Kansas State                          +7.89             0.835
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                                +5.50             0.709
HOME   # 41 Texas Tech                           +14.57             0.982
AWAY   # 39 Texas                                 +7.64             0.779
HOME   # 26 Iowa State                           +11.47             0.915

Here is West Virginia's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #263 Northern Kentucky          107  61   +30.54   +15.46
HOME   #114 James Madison               86  73   +19.56    -6.56
HOME   #325 Stetson                    103  62   +36.40    +4.60
HOME   #330 Bethune-Cookman             97  44   +36.55   +16.45
NEUT   # 74 Richmond                    67  59   +12.40    -4.40
NEUT   # 79 San Diego State             72  50   +12.83    +9.17
HOME   #297 Kennesaw State              87  54   +32.73    +0.27
NEUT   # 12 Virginia                    54  70    +2.51   -18.51
HOME   #186 Louisiana-Monroe           100  58   +25.52   +16.48
AWAY   #170 Marshall                    86  68   +16.98    +1.02
HOME   #204 Eastern Kentucky            84  59   +26.48    -1.48
AWAY   #103 Virginia Tech               88  63   +12.17   +12.83
AWAY   # 43 Kansas State                87  83    +6.08    -2.08    2 overtimes
AWAY   #135 TCU                         95  87   +14.11    -6.11
HOME   # 90 Oklahoma State              77  60   +17.19    -0.19
HOME   #  1 Kansas                                +1.57             0.568
AWAY   #  5 Oklahoma                              -3.39             0.357
HOME   # 39 Texas                                +12.59             0.878
AWAY   # 41 Texas Tech                            +6.00             0.769
HOME   # 43 Kansas State                         +12.84             0.920
AWAY   # 27 Florida                               +2.93             0.610
AWAY   # 26 Iowa State                            +2.90             0.622
HOME   # 30 Baylor                               +10.45             0.832
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                                -5.19             0.284
HOME   #135 TCU                                  +20.87             0.984
AWAY   # 39 Texas                                 +5.83             0.705
HOME   #  5 Oklahoma                              +3.37             0.642
HOME   # 26 Iowa State                            +9.66             0.849
AWAY   # 90 Oklahoma State                       +10.43             0.847
HOME   # 41 Texas Tech                           +12.76             0.941
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                                +3.69             0.633
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, jhawkgib, Bayhawk, NotOstertag, porthawk, WAJayhawk, ElectricHawk

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8 years 3 months ago - 8 years 3 months ago #1694 by Illhawk
Thanks again for the insight. The numbers do suggest that this is going to be tough. Past scores don't reflect that it is a long trip after a long trip and in a way WV needs the game worse to win the Big XII.

At the start of the season this looked like one of those 2-4 games that an outstanding KU team would lose on it's way to a conference championship and a #1 seed. Might still happen like that. Either way we have a home game Saturday.

But after a couple close losses at WV this is a more familiar venue not like Ames or Norman to the fans, but etched in the memory of our starting lineup. They face a talented opponent with a great coach, but something tells me Frank and Wayne are on a mission this evening.
Last Edit: 8 years 3 months ago by Sieverling.

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8 years 3 months ago #1695 by LasJayhawk
Numbers I'm seeing are WVU -2 (Wynn and Westgate)or -2.5 (Boyd)

But it only means that is what it is taking to get the money split evenly, could be nothing more than not much action and a lot of WVU fans in town. Doubt there is much professional action on a crapshoot game like this. :)
Yea,yea,yea, keepin' the faith

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8 years 3 months ago #1696 by NotOstertag
A couple of things give me hope that we can get out of Morgantown with a win (being a little repetitive from some other things I've posted).

1.) WVU has played a silly schedule, making their past performances somewhat suspect. Yes, they've been blowing teams out, but beating the likes of Eastern Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, and Kennesaw state doesn't say much. Moreover, they've seldom been tested in close games, with the big exception being their road win at KSU. Bottom line, they have yet to face anything CLOSE to what KU can bring to bear, and they might be in for a shock.

2.) Mason and Graham are solid ball handlers who, I feel, will have very little problem breaking WVU's press. Add in Selden and Ellis and once the press is broken, and we've got lots of options to score.

3.) We're due. We've lost the last 2 years there. The upperclassmen on our squad want this one really badly.

WVU fans want nothing more than to have the opportunity to storm the court again. Nevertheless, they're not a battle-tested team. They've beaten up plenty of JV squads, and lost to their only ranked opponent (rather handily I might add). We both beat SDSU by similar margins, but we did it as a true road game, and got theirs on a neutral court. Finally, compare that to KU, who got a ton of pre-season work (and success) in Korea, who won the Maui Classic playing 3 games in 3 days, and who's 3-1 vs. top 25 teams, and it almost becomes an apples-to-oranges comparison between the two teams' schedules to date.

Huge game for us (and them). We've had a few huge games so far this year, and our record is pretty solid in them. WVU has yet to play a truly "huge" game.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot

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8 years 3 months ago - 8 years 3 months ago #1697 by konza63
Bottom line:

* Play like we did against OU and we come out alive with a W.

* Play anywhere near like we did against TT and we not only lose but probably lose big.

I like our ball handlers' ability to break the press, too, but I think someone is going to HAVE to step up at the "5" spot on offense to take pressure (and the behemoth Devin Williams) off of Perry. If this becomes a game where we're trying (or forced) to win it by having Perry play a strong power forward game vs. Williams, I don't like our chances. At all. I'd much rather see us get lots of buckets off of beating their press and quickly finding the open man for bunnies up the court. Of course, we have to hit those bunnies (with likely defenders on us), which is an Achilles Heel that we're still in the process of trying to rectify. The other thing we can do in our favor is hit the threes (Selden should be back on his game, hopefully) and have Perry use his athleticism to hit shots after starting from the key and elbow (as opposed to the block against big brick walls of defenders).

The other key to this game is getting our fair share of defensive rebounds. If you recall last year's game in Morgantown, it was utterly excruciating to watch because of all the offensive rebounds that WVU came away with. (One stat I saw showed that they came away with over half of all the rebounds on missed shots--which was superb for them and abysmal for us.) Many of those rebounds came on long bounces off the rim where they simply out-hustled our guys to the ball. That cannot happen on a consistent basis tonight, because it takes away the one thing WVU doesn't do so well--which is first-shot success. They get a lot of their points on putbacks, and they are the top offensive rebounding team in the land. So that's something we have to do well tonight.

Just for sheer rim protection, size factor, and rebounding sake, I almost lean toward the most minutes at the 5 going to Landen tonight...but he is a liability on offense. So pick your poison when it comes to choosing among the KU 5s, which is probably why none of them are getting hefty minutes and the latter continue to be all spread out (with Self having to make game-by-game decisions on which one to go with the most).

If I were forced to make a bet here, I'd have to go with WVU in a close one (given recent history), but I'm crossing my fingers that we take a major step up tonight and show that this team is ready to beat teams of all styles, on the road in hostile venues, with sub-optimal rest and long travel times.

Rock Chalk...
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 8 years 3 months ago by konza63.

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8 years 3 months ago - 8 years 3 months ago #1700 by Illhawk
xx
Last Edit: 8 years 3 months ago by Sieverling.

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8 years 3 months ago #1707 by Sieverling
on college sports.
Hic manebimus optime

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8 years 3 months ago #1731 by LKF_HAWK
And KU comes out and plays likes utter refuse- what is it about Morgantown and bringing the worst out of KU--sickening gsme

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