AP Top 25 is screwed up

I know it is early, but not really. The season is 25% complete. The errors of the pre-season polls have not been fully extinguished. Here is my analysis of the top 25.

1. Louisville -- They are 4th in my DPPI and 9th in the composite of 32 computer polls. They are undefeated having played a soft schedule (ranked 174th). They are top 20 in both offense and defense (18th offense and 6th defense). A No. 1 ranking is not unreasonable.

2. Kansas -- They are 5th in my DPPI and No. 1 in the computer composite. They have played the 2nd toughest schedule in the country and the only loss is to top 5 Duke. They are top 10 in both offense and defense (5th offense, 8th defense)A No. 2 ranking is clearly appropriate.

3. Maryland -- They are 8th in my DPPI and No. 7 in the computer composite. They are undefeated having played an okay schedule (ranked 108th). They are top 15 in both offense and defense (15th offense, 14th defense) A No. 3 ranking is clearly appropriate.

4. Michigan -- They are 20th in my DPPI and No. 4 in the computer composite. They won the Bahamas Tourney and were crowned as a top 4 team. Then they lose to Louisville by 15. They have played an good schedule (ranked 53rd). They are 25th in offense and 28th in defense. They are definitely a top 25 team but No. 4 is simply unwarranted at this point. Maybe in the teens is more appropriate.

5. Virginia -- Here is where it gets screwed up. They are 34th in my DPPI and No. 2 in the computer composite. But after the loss to Purdue, that computer composite will clearly fall. They are 7-1 having played a decent schedule (ranked 84th). They are the top defensive team in the country but rank in the bottom quartile (276th) offensively. In my opinion they should not be in the top 25 or at the very best in the 20's.

6. Ohio St. -- They are 1st in my DPPI (by a long shot) and No. 6 in the computer composite. They are undefeated having played a decent schedule (ranked 95th). They are top 7 in both offense and defense (7th offense, 2nd defense) A No. 6 ranking is okay, but for my money they have showed they are the team to beat and should be No. 1. They spanked UNC last night by 25. I had that (after the fact) as a 16 point favorite to OSU. Until they show otherwise, I think this is the best team in America.

7. North Carolina -- Here is where the AP poll goes off the rails. I have UNC rated No. 70 in my DPPI. The composite has them at 14th but that will change after the Ohio St. blowout. I give them credit, they have played a nice schedul (46th) and are 6-2. But they are 83 offensively and 72nd defensively. They should be nowhere near the top 25. I predict they will fall from the top 25. All the blu bloods get special consideration in these polls which is fine. But they are not even close enough where consideration gets them in the top 25 at all, much less 7th.

8. Kentucky -- Another blue blood special consideration and ridiculously unwarranted ranking. I have UK at 36th in my DPPI and they are 27th in the composite. They are 6-1 against a pathetically ranked 321st SOS. Even with special blue blood consideration, they should barely be in the poll and for my money they should not be in the top 25. They are 49th in offense and 33rd in defense. They are not in the top 25 in any way.

9. Gonzaga -- Sure, they play for the mediocre (at best) West Coast Conf. But Few has built a real solid program and they are a legit top tier team. This season, though, they have played a weak schedule (316th) and are 9-1. They are 12th in my DPPI and 12th in the composite. 9th in the AP is okay. I can live with that.

10. Duke -- Duke stumbled rather badly by losing in OT to Stephen F. Austin. But SFA is ranked 33rd in my DPPI. That was not a particularly horrendous loss. Bad? Yes. Horrendous? No. Duke is 2nd in my DPPI and 3rd in the composite. They are 3rd offensively and 13th defensively. The voting world reacted way too much to the loss to SFA. Duke should be top 5 in my opinion.

11. Michigan St. -- Sparty was the sexy pick for No. 1. The AP world loves Izzo and everyone was happy they landed at pre-season No. 1 and a favorite to go all the way to the NC with the player of the year Cassius Winston. Bu now they sit at 5-3 against a beefy schedule (ranked 19th). They are 9th in offense but their defense has been suspect although not bad at 29th. They are a legit team. They are 18th in my DPPI and 10th in the composite, although that will fall after the loss to Duke. I don't have a real problem with Sparty at 11 given they are always going to get a little special consideration as the pre-season No.1. But for my money they should be a few spots lower based on what they have done so far.

12. Arizona -- Zona ain't gettin' much love yet but I think they will. I have them 6th in my DPPI and they are 11th in the composite. 4th in offense and 25th in defense. I am not sure about this team yet, but 9-0 against a mediocre schedule (170th) and a 6th in the DPPI says they are more likely to climb than to fall. I believe they are top 10 but 12 will do for now.

13. Oregon -- Oregon is a conundrum. Like Zona, not sure what to make yet. They are 16th in my DPPI and 8th in the composite. 14th in offense but suspect defense at 34th. They are 6-2 against a monster schedule (ranked 3rd overall). They went 6-0 before losses to Gonzaga (okay) and UNC (huh?). 13th seems just about right for now.

14. Auburn -- Auburn may qualify for the most underrated team. I have them at 4th in my DPPI and the composite has them at 5th. They are a great offensive team (2nd )with a decent defense (21st). They are undefeated with a pretty good schedule (83rd). I definitely think they have earned a top 10 and I believe a top 5 or 6 for what they have done. 14 is simply too low.

15. Memphis -- Maybe when Wiseman returns, they will be top 25. Not now. Or at least not 15th. I have them at 32nd in my DPPI and they are 36th in the composite. Decent offense (16th) but no defense (75th). They are 7-1 against the 205th ranked SOS. Maybe, maybe they could break in at 24th or 25th. But no way are they top 15 right now.

16. Seton Hall -- Seton Hall is legit. I have them at 11th in my DPPI and they are 20th in the DPPI. I can live with 16 for now.

17. Florida St. -- DPPI has them at 27th and computers at 13th. They are 7-2 with a strong schedule (32nd). 17th seems about right.

18. Baylor -- 13th in DPPI and 15th in composite. 6-1 with mediocre schedule. The loss to Washington is hurting them a little. 18th is okay although I think they may solidify that as the season progresses.

19. Dayton -- Dayton came out of nowhere with their performance in Maui. We Jayhawks saw them up close and personal. They are for real. I have them at 9th in my DPPI and they are 22nd in the composite. I will defer to the composite and acquiesce that 19th is a fair position. I think we may see them end up in or close to the top 10 though. They have the No. 1 ranked offense in the land but are suspect (59th) on defense.

20. Colorado -- Our boy Tad Boyle has a very good team out west. I have them at 19th and the composite at 18th. 20th is totally appropriate. Their 119th ranked offense may cause them problems as the season progresses though. But what a defense (9th).

21. Tennessee -- 25th in DPPI and 19th in composite. weak offense (102nd) but strong defense (10th). They are right where they should be.

22. Washington -- This one is another conundrum. I have them at 54th and the composite has them at 41st. Sure, they beat Baylor by 3(nice win) and lost to Tennessee by 13. But 7-1 against a weakish schedule (186th) and low rankings by me and the computers says they are overrated!! No way they are top 25.

23. Villanova -- Another blue blood unfairly good ranking? Not really. Yes, they are 6-2 but against a very good schedule (54th). I have them at 24th and the composite has them at 24th. Looks like they are right where they need to be. Just fyi, they are weak on defense (60th) but good on offense (11th).

24. Butler -- Does the Big East get its due? Yeh, probably. But Butler is probably underrated. I have them at 15th and the composite has them at 23rd. Their weak offense is maybe holding them back (76th) but their defense is great (5th). And they are undefeated against a mediocre SOS (124th). Okay at 24th but probably top 20.

25. Utah St. -- For a couple years running, Utah St. has been a good team from the Mountain West. They are 8-1 but a 292nd SOS. I have them at 23 and the composite has them at 31. Seems at 25 is about right. No problem with that.

So who is getting shafted? IMHO, other than Auburn, Ohio St. and Dayton, mentioned above, the big shaft is;

1. San Diego St. from the Mountain West. I have them at 7 in my DPPI. The composite has them at 17th. They did get the 28th most votes in the AP but they are a legit top 15 team. Crazy good defense (4th) and decent offense (23rd). They are 9-0 against 134th SOS.

2. Penn St. -- 7-1 with only loss a 2 point loss to Ole Miss. Yes, a bad loss, but they well balanced at 17th offense and 22nd defense. I have them at 10th in my DPPI and they are 25th in the composite. Maybe not deserving of top 10 but definitely top 25.

3. Indiana -- 14th in DPPI and 29th in Composite but will climb with their last win. Should be top 25.

4. Arkansas -- 17th in DPPI and 16th in composite. Should be top 20.

Honorable Mention

1. Stanford -- 21st in DPPI and 32nd composite
2. LSU -- 22nd in DPPI and 28th in composite
3. Oklahoma St. -- 39th in DPPI and 21st in composite.

Fun analysis. Thanks.

Setting aside the fact that the polls are opinion based and not data based, I think a lot of things will shake out by next week.

>Louisville is the legit #1 for now. They were #5 preseason, and haven't lost a game with all 4 teams ahead of them dropping at least one game. That's fine. Beating Michigan this week solidifies that.

>Ok with KU at #2 in AP and am confident that Virginia's loss to unranked Purdue last night will put them back around the 9/10 position they had in the preseason.

>Maryland is ok in their spot. Again, they were #7/8 in the preseason polls and haven't lost a game, gaining spots by attrition. That's acceptable.

>Michigan is a roller coaster and they lost pretty handily to Louisville. Their rocket ride is over, and they'll be right-sized back down to the lower half of the top 10 next week, which feels right.

Of the rest of "my" most noteworthy teams:

>Ohio State: They should move into the top 5 leapfrogging Michigan and Virginia next week after crushing Carolina in the Dean Dome.

>UNC: Sorry, not sorry, Roy. 2 losses puts you in the bottom half of the top 25 next week which seems to be supported by the computer models.

>UK: After losing to Evansville, they haven't played anybody of note. The only thing keeping them in the top 10 is their brand name. I think they're in danger of (rightfully) slipping some spots as lower level teams with no losses move up (Arizona, Auburn, etc.)

>Duke and Michigan State: Interesting that Duke and MSU were #4 and #1 respectively in the preseason. Now they're #10 and #11. I see Duke starting to work their way back up the rankings as their youngsters gain experience. Unfortunately, I see MSU going the other direction. Not only did they look pretty bad losing to Duke In East Lansing, but between Cassius Winston dealing with his brother's death, and getting Joey Hauser's appeal to play rejected by the NCAA, they seem a little out of joint and need to regain some mojo before they start moving up.

Again, this is largely a "gut feeling" ranking, completely unsupported by the numbers, which is actually how I think AP and Coaches poll voters vote. I do think we'll see some interesting movement next week which makes KU's game vs. #20 Colorado all that much more important. Adding a win over a ranked opponent should secure us our spot at #2, and give us a legitimate shot at moving up if Louisville falters.

NotO, while I have differences with your "gut feel" I can live with your assessments with one glaring exception. North Carolina should not be in the top 25 or anywhere close in my opinion. There are 11 teams with a SOS rank in the top 50 and a DPPI rank in the top 70. Of those, Duke, Kansas, Michigan St. and Florida St. are clear top 25 teams ahead of UNC. In fact, Florida St., ranked 17 in the AP poll has a scoring margin of 12.6 points per game with a SOS of 32, yet UNC with a SOS of 46 has a scoring margin of 4.5 points per game. That is a ridiculous difference. Arizona St (SOS=41 and scoring margin=12), West Virginia (SOS=15 and scoring margin=11.4...and undefeated) and Minnesota (SOS=33 and scoring margin=9.4 are all significantly better than UNC, significantly but none are whiffing the top 25, much less top 10. UNC's resume is simply not worthy of a top 25, and in my opinion, it is not close. Heck, even Nevada (SOS=37 and scoring margin=6.9) is better than UNC. All these teams I mentioned IMHO, are not worthy of top 25 and UNC is below them.

Corpus,

I am curious how the Big 12 losing 2 games last night affected the bid 12s position. Both TT and OSU from the big 12 dropped games last night.

Hairy, glad you asked. Below is my conference rating through last nights games. The Big 12 has fallen to 2nd. The Big Ten/ACC Challenge has really benefited the Big Ten but also raised the ACC's SOS. The Big 12 is still mighty strong mostly because it has only 10 teams and none are really bad. Well, that was until Kansas St. started fading. Here are the Big 12 teams.

5 Kansas
13 Baylor
28 West Virginia
29 Texas Tech
39 Okie St.
51 Iowa St.
61 Oklahoma
69 TCU
73 Texas
143 K-State.

As an aside. How much longer can Texas abide such under performance with Shaka Smart? Also an fyi. Texas A&M is the lowest rated Power 6 team at 315!! Ouch. Nebraska (212), Boston College (199), Washington St. (196) and California (192) are all in the bottom half of all teams. K-State is really dragging down the Big 12 this year.

Heck Corpus, if we agreed on everything, we'd have nothing to talk about.

I'll admit that my "gut" is about 90% greasy food, beer, and pork products, and about 10% data, but that's also what I think the polls are. To me, the polls are EXACTLY this kind of thing: a cause for banter back and forth between fans and TV commentators. If people REALLY wanted to know rankings, they'd pick their favorite computer algorithm (like your DPPI, KenPom, Sagarin, etc. etc.). Then the only debate would center around the assumptions that went into the weighting and formulas that make up the computer models. Since most fans don't have the smarts or interest in digging in that deeply, we're left to trust the computers and the people creating the models.

Nevertheless, he's my "logic" for UNC, even though I'll readily admit that literally ANY computer ranking is more accurate. I just think this "logic" is likely how a lot of the writers and coaches submit their polls every week (in many cases in a hurry to make a deadline and not spending a lot of time on it).

Preseason UNC was ranked #9 in AP, #11 in Coaches. Hmm..Ok, sounds about right. Not forecasted to be a top team, but certainly respectful of their Blue Blood pedigree, history of success, and decent roster.

Week 2: They beat Notre Dame and Florida dropped their opener and fell out of the top 10. UNC moves up to #6. Deserved? Who knows...Notre Dame isn't a horrible program. They get a "benefit of the doubt" bump.

Week 3: UK and Villanove both lose making more room at the top. UNC gets another boost because they didn't lose, not because UNC Wilmington or Garner Webb were any good. This is where the polls and reality start to diverge, but since they didn't lose they get a bump up to #5 AP and #4 Coaches.

Week 4: They somehow managed to beat Elon (), in the one game they played that week. The AP knocks them back on spot to #6 and they stay at #4 in the Coache's poll. Again, not losing buys blue bloods the benefit of the doubt.

Week 5: This brings us to the present day. UNC Beat Alabama, lost to Michigan and then beat #11 Oregon. Michigan became a media darling and enjoyed their 15 minutes of fame which, combined with the Oregon win, mitigated the damage. Therefore they only fell to #7.

This week's loss to Ohio State is likely to expose them to a lot more reality, and their game @ Virginia on Sunday is almost a "must win" for them to keep their illusion alive.

I do think that not losing is a big deal with the pollsters, moreso than looking at who you beat. It's really hard for the voters to demote a team if they win, but in the case of UNC, it could also be argued (logically, not with data) that as the #11/#9 team in the preseason, UNC hasn't shown us enough in any direction to really judge them. They've got a lot of wins against teams they should beat, and their 2 losses are against the #6 (OSU) and #5 (Michigan). Michigan is the most interesting of the bunch: from unranked to #5 seems like a HUGE jump that is likely excessive.

To me, the teams that are likely getting screwed are the unranked teams or lower ranked teams who should be ranked much higher but who can't win the "popularity contest" element that's inherently built into the polls.

Anyway, by way of corroborating evidence Sagarin, at least agrees with you somewhat. He has them as #15 overall with the #28 SOS, BUT he also has them at #22 for his "predictor" and "recent" columns which support your case that they shouldn't be in the top 25 (he has them almost out of it).

Finally, as for why I like Sagarin? He's the one I have bookmarked.

I’m really appreciative of every ones efforts on these analyses!

RCJH!

...and Carolina loses AGAIN. They've now lost 3 of the last 4. They play AT Gonzaga on the 18th (Wofford this week). That puts them at 6-3 and there are NO teams in the top 25 that have more than 2 losses. By all reasoning they should fall out of the top 25. Somehow, I still think the voters MIGHT allow them to hang around somewhere between 20-25, which would be unfair to a lot of other teams getting votes who are actually winning games.

NotO, I'm even going to go further and say that voters will keep them between 15-20.

Totally possible, Port. If I had to place a bet, I'd probably stick with 20-25. They should be out of the rankings. If, however, you're right, I also wouldn't be shocked. Disappointed, but not shocked.

If that happens, I think it really DOES expose the stupidity of the rankings. In fact, it would be interesting to look up which writers and/or coaches who would vote them into that range and confront them and make them defend their decision.

If I were to lay odds on where the end up, here's how I'd place the percentages:

Top 10: 3% (they're #7 now and I know that there are fanboys who would think a 3 spot drop is adequate)
10-15: 10%
15-20: 12%
20-25: 25%
Not ranked: 50%

So 50/50 on being ranked, with percentages increasing as they move down.

Here's a link to the poll and an article that accompanies it.
www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/sto...uisville-kansas-poll

Port gets a gold star for his prediction! Congrats.

That's just awful though. In particular it's unfair to the teams that are just short of #25 and getting votes.

As for Michigan State, they were a preseason #1, they have one top 25 win and a #20 SOS (according to Sagarin), putting them at #12 in that model. By comparison, UNC is #29 and is 1-3 vs the top 25.

Carolina should beat Woffard this week but they play Gonzaga on the 18th, which might put a final nail in their coffin.

My latest DPPI has North Carolina at 71. Granted, my algorithm has them much lower than the average of all computers which is 34th. But 7OT has them at 84th. They are living in the top 25 by virtue of their pedigree and definitely not their performance. As I said, I thought KU was over rated for much of last year and it was because of our pedigree. Kentucky is another over ranked team. They are 23rd in the composite of the computers and I have them at 25th. But they are 8th in the AP. Memphis is the third most over rated team. They are 13th in the AP but only 29th in the composite and I have them as 36th. They may be getting the "Wiseman" adjustment.

My DPPI has only 2 teams that are the outlier in the composite of computers. I have Texas rated 85th, higher than any other computer while the average is 42nd. I also have Florida rated 97th compared to the average of 47th. There are 41 entries into the computer comparison and 351 teams that have to be either highest or lowest so the average computer will have 17 outliers. I have only 2. I am pretty happy with that. It tells me I don't have an extreme algorithm.

On another topic, the Colorado game gave KU the toughest schedule in the country. That will fall with the next two games for sure but will rebound when we play Stanford (ranked 20th) and Villanova (ranked 27th). We will finish the 12/13ths of the non-com schedule with at least a top 5 SOS and very possibly the top SOS. Oregon (ranked 12th) has the 2nd SOS. Other top 40 teams to play tough schedules are 16th ranked Florida St with the 24th SOS, 19th ranked Michigan St. with the 8th SOS, 30th ranked West Virginia with the 10th SOS (there is a surprise) and the 40th ranked BYU with the 7th SOS.

Top teams with an embarrassing SOS are 7th ranked Gonzaga with a SOS ranked 288th, 13th ranked San Diego St. with an SOS of 186, 20th ranked Stanford with an SOS of 222, 21st ranked Indiana with an SOS of 215 and the worst of all, 25th ranked Kentucky with an SOS ranked 317th.

Our Maui opponent Dayton still leads the nation at 87.4 points per game. Virginia allows the fewest points at 43.1 PPG. My DPPI says a neutral court matchup of these two teams would give Dayton a 76 to 71 point victory.

The top 10 teams have only 6 losses so only 6 teams can claim a top 10 win. KU is one of them with the victory over Dayton. Duke, Washington, Baylor, Michigan and SFA are the others.

Duke is the only team to defeat 2 top 25 teams.

Duke, Kansas and Oregon claim supremacy of top 50 victories with 3 each.

The top 5 offensive teams in order are Duke, Dayton, Auburn, Ohio St. and Kansas.

The top 5 defensive teams are Virginia, Ohio St., Louisville, Purdue and Arkansas. Kansas is 8th.

Only 4 teams are in the top 25 in both defense and offense. Ohio St. (4th in offense, 2nd in defense), Kansas (5th in offense, 8th in defense), Duke, 1st in offense, 10th in defense) and Arizona (6th in offense and 23rd in defense). Oregon is on the edge (11th in offense and 26th in defense).

Virginia is 1st in defense but 280th in offense. Ouch. Our foe UNC Greensboro is similar. They are the 13th best defense in the land but struggle to score ranked 162nd. Undefeated liberty is another defensive team ranked 16th on defense but 181st in offense.

The offense heavy teams are Georgia (10th offense, 210th defense), Utah (13th offense, 136th on defense).

As for consistency, Butler, ranked 9th is the 2nd most consistent team in the country. LSU, ranked 15th is the 14th most consistent and Tennessee, ranked 22nd is also the 22nd most consistent team. San Diego St, ranked 296th, is the least consistent of the top 25 teams, followed by Arizona, ranked 288th. KU is middle of the pack at 166th, thanks mostly to the Monmouth game. Take out the Monmouth game and we would be the 7th most consistent team in the country. However, because of the impact of that Monmouth game, KU's mental toughness is the 9th best in the country and the best of the top 30 teams. Michigan St. (24th best mental toughness) is next highest for top 25 teams.

Thanks, NotO! As a teacher, I'm happy to be on this end of gold star receiving.

A teacher? Ok, then in addition to the gold star, you get an extra 5 minutes at recess too!

I'll take it! Can I also get 10 bonus points on my next math test?

Now you're getting greedy. You can, however, earn 10 bonus points if you get the extra credit question correct.