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predictions for Oklahoma game

  • asteroid
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5 years 1 month ago - 5 years 1 month ago #1279 by asteroid
#1 (AP) versus #1 (Coaches).  Need I say more?

Sagarin gives Kansas a 5.5 point margin, with a 73.8 percent probability of
winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 152.2 points per game,
that suggests a final score of Kansas 79, Oklahoma 73.  Kansas has been playing
2.2 points above expectation, while Oklahoma has been playing 1.8 points above
expectation, which means that the margin could be 5.8 points.  Kansas has a
positive trend with strong statistical significance, thanks to the Baylor game,
while Oklahoma's trend is weakly negative, but not statistically significant.
On the other hand, Kansas has a negative mental toughness rating while Oklahoma
has a positive rating, though neither is statistically significant.  Taken at
face value, the margin for Kansas increases to 7.7 points.  Kansas has played
just two of twelve Division I games below expectation by enough to lose today's
game (Michigan State and Harvard), corresponding to a 16.7 percent chance of
losing.  Oklahoma has played four of twelve games above expectation by enough
to win today's game (Incarnate Word, Central Arkansas, Villanova, and Washington
State, corresponding to a 33.3 percent chance of winning.  Those two average to
a 25 percent chance of Kansas losing, consistent with the Sagarin probability
shown above.

Massey gives Kansas a 4.0 point margin, with a 62 percent probability of winning
the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 80, Oklahoma 76.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 1.2 units, as well as the
better adjusted defense by 0.1 units, which combine to a 1.3 units advantage for
Kansas.  With an average of 73.1 possessions per game, the margin for Kansas works
out to 0.9 points on a neutral court.  Add Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage,
and the margin becomes 4.4 points, with the rounding helping Kansas by a bit.  The
ratings suggest a score of Kansas 78, Oklahoma 74.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 7.0 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 83 to 76.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in five of eight categories; Oklahoma scores more points per game, grabs more
total rebounds per game, and gets a higher offensive rebound percentage.  Among
the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just two of seven categories,
namely opponents points per game and steals per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 3.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at 6.5
points, so he is picking Oklahoma against the spread.  With a total points projection
of 164, the implied final score is Kansas 84, Oklahoma 80.  Meanwhile, he claims the
Vegas total is 156, which would imply a final score of Kansas 81.5 (you pick the
rounding), Oklahoma 75.  Judging from the tabulated win-loss numbers, Dunkel's
rankings are still way out-of-date.

Previously I had speculated that Real Time must use a larger home court advantage
than the other prognosticators.  That hypothesis has been thrown out the window,
considering that Real Time makes Kansas a 1.0 point underdog, with only a 49.0 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 80, Oklahoma 81.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 6.4 point margin with a 69.5 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 82, Oklahoma 76.

What is Colley smoking?  Texas Tech is still his #6 team!  Kansas is down at #9.
Tech's best win is against #34 Little Rock, while our best win is supposedly
#31 Oregon State.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 1.7 units in favor of Oklahoma, but we need to
calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling factor of 0.726
just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick with that value for
consistency purposes.  That makes Oklahoma a 1.2 point favorite on a neutral court,
but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes
the favorite by 2.2 points.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 2.4 points in favor of
Oklahoma on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage,
and Kansas becomes a 1.0 point favorite.

Well, I was wrong about LRMC waiting until the postseason.  They're now on board,
but their web site is broken.  All (well, I tested Kansas and Oklahoma) of the team
links return 404 Not Found, which means I can't look up the strength of schedule
rankings.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 6.0 point margin, corresponding to a 71 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 79 to 73, the same
as what I deduced from the Sagarin ratings.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 4.3 point margin.

The DPPI's ratings differential is 4.1 units.  I'm unsure if that equates to
points or not.  If it does, and after accounting for Sagarin's home court
advantage, it could be 7.5 points.  Don has his own home court advantage figure.
If he's made his own game predictions, I haven't seen them yet.

There is one common opponent, namely Harvard:

KU   +6 Har at home ( +2 neutral)
OU  +12 Har neutral (+12 neutral)
KU   -6 OU  at home (-10 neutral)

That's the most pessimistic prognostication of the bunch.  Then again, Harvard
did hang close to Oklahoma until the very end.

Players to watch:  Guard Buddy Hield plays the most minutes and scores the most
points, but also commits the most turnovers.  Forward Ryan Spangler is their
leading rebounder.  Guard Isaiah Cousins dishes the most assists.  Guard Jordan
Woodard is their leading thief.  Forward Khadeem Lattin commits the most personal
fouls, which may explain why he's fifth in minutes played.

The average of the various prognostications is 4.0 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 78, Oklahoma 74.

Rock Chalk!  And Happy New Year!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  1   # 52   #  1   #  1   #  2   +2.2    8.1   +1.17 +/- 0.61   -0.08 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma       #  2   # 54   #  7   #  2   #  1   +1.8    9.0   -0.33 +/- 0.78   +0.20 +/- 0.25
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  5  # 20   #  1   # 90   #  1  #  7    # 14    #  4   # 64   # 10   # 46
Oklahoma       #  1  #  7   #  4   # 82   #  8  # 12    #  7    #  2   # 89   #  3   # 73
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  7   #  7   #  1   # 12   #  9   #  5   #  6   0.908   12-1     #  1  # 98
Oklahoma       #  3   #  3   #  8   #  2   #  3   #  1   #  2   0.816   12-0     #  8  #129
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  9  # 58    #  3  # 64    #  7  #110    #  6  #  -    #  2  #  8    #  2  # 19
Oklahoma       #  2  # 55    #  1  # 22    #  1  # 60    #  5  #  -    #  9  # 10    #  3  # 24

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 27-4:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #314 Northern Colorado          109  72   +37.06    -0.06
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              73  79    +1.88    -7.88
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 57 UCLA                        92  73   +13.49    +5.51
NEUT   # 13 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +4.32    +2.68
HOME   #271 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +33.05    -0.05
HOME   # 94 Harvard                     75  69   +19.80   -13.80
HOME   #239 Holy Cross                  92  59   +30.28    +2.72
HOME   # 50 Oregon State                82  67   +15.97    -0.97
HOME   #173 Montana                     88  46   +26.43   +15.57
AWAY   # 68 San Diego State             70  57   +10.70    +2.30
HOME   # 93 UC Irvine                   78  53   +19.78    +5.22
HOME   # 33 Baylor                     102  74   +13.49   +14.51
HOME   #  7 Oklahoma                              +5.46             0.738
AWAY   # 38 Texas Tech                            +7.75             0.858
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia                         -2.00             0.415
HOME   #143 TCU                                  +23.51             0.996
AWAY   # 85 Oklahoma State                       +12.12             0.895
HOME   # 35 Texas                                +14.21             0.917
AWAY   # 26 Iowa State                            +4.12             0.682
HOME   # 24 Kentucky                             +10.31             0.857
HOME   # 45 Kansas State                         +15.24             0.964
AWAY   #143 TCU                                  +16.71             0.969
HOME   #  3 West Virginia                         +4.80             0.697
AWAY   #  7 Oklahoma                              -1.34             0.438
HOME   # 85 Oklahoma State                       +18.92             0.975
AWAY   # 45 Kansas State                          +8.44             0.841
AWAY   # 33 Baylor                                +6.69             0.745
HOME   # 38 Texas Tech                           +14.55             0.978
AWAY   # 35 Texas                                 +7.41             0.765
HOME   # 26 Iowa State                           +10.92             0.896

Here is Oklahoma's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 70 Memphis                     84  78    +8.73    -2.73
HOME   #310 McNeese State               85  56   +34.73    -5.73
HOME   #199 Incarnate Word              96  63   +25.83    +7.17
HOME   # 75 Wisconsin                   65  48   +15.70    +1.30
HOME   #335 Central Arkansas           111  68   +37.36    +5.64
NEUT   #  4 Villanova                   78  55    -0.61   +23.61
HOME   #192 Oral Roberts                96  73   +25.40    -2.40
HOME   # 52 Creighton                   87  74   +14.29    -1.29
NEUT   #118 Washington State            88  60   +16.04   +11.96
NEUT   # 56 Hawai'i                     84  81   +11.38    -8.38
NEUT   # 94 Harvard                     83  71   +14.34    -2.34
HOME   # 26 Iowa State                  87  83    +8.86    -4.86
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                                -5.46             0.262
HOME   # 45 Kansas State                         +13.18             0.931
AWAY   # 85 Oklahoma State                       +10.06             0.841
HOME   #  3 West Virginia                         +2.74             0.611
AWAY   # 26 Iowa State                            +2.06             0.590
AWAY   # 33 Baylor                                +4.63             0.671
HOME   # 38 Texas Tech                           +12.49             0.947
AWAY   # 88 LSU                                  +10.23             0.846
HOME   #143 TCU                                  +21.45             0.989
AWAY   # 45 Kansas State                          +6.38             0.763
HOME   # 35 Texas                                +12.15             0.874
HOME   #  1 Kansas                                +1.34             0.562
AWAY   # 38 Texas Tech                            +5.69             0.769
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia                         -4.06             0.337
HOME   # 85 Oklahoma State                       +16.86             0.953
AWAY   # 35 Texas                                 +5.35             0.693
HOME   # 33 Baylor                               +11.43             0.862
AWAY   #143 TCU                                  +14.65             0.941
Last Edit: 5 years 1 month ago by HawkErrant. Reason: fix subject
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5 years 1 month ago - 5 years 1 month ago #1284 by CorpusJayhawk
David, DPPI projects 81-72 with a 74% probability of winning. My home court margin is 5.3 points (total margin).

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
Last Edit: 5 years 1 month ago by HawkErrant.

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5 years 1 month ago - 5 years 1 month ago #1287 by JhawkMom
So happy for all the projections show KU winning. Everywhere I've read it's the same. It will be an exciting game. So glad it will be on ESPN. Just hoping "you know who" won't be there!!!!!!
Last Edit: 5 years 1 month ago by HawkErrant.

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  • asteroid
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5 years 1 month ago - 5 years 1 month ago #1289 by asteroid
And West Virginia versus TCU?
Last Edit: 5 years 1 month ago by HawkErrant.

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5 years 1 month ago - 5 years 1 month ago #1290 by asteroid
The subject line was supposed to be "game", not "home". Any way to edit the subject line after the fact?
Last Edit: 5 years 1 month ago by HawkErrant.

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5 years 1 month ago - 5 years 1 month ago #1294 by HawkErrant
Took care of it, asteroid.

I do not know if users have the okay to edit their own posts or not. Last year's board you could if you made your edits within an hour after posting. I've queried Dave in forum "How to use this board".

“The world is a dangerous place to live, not because of the people who are evil but because of the people who don’t do anything about it” ~Albert Einstein
Last Edit: 5 years 1 month ago by HawkErrant.

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5 years 1 month ago #1296 by konza63
83-79, baby!

B)

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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