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× Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball

Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage

Tonight should be fascinating to watch...

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5 years 1 month ago - 5 years 1 month ago #1239 by konza63
Talk about two very evenly matched teams. To wit:

* KU and OU are easily two of the most balanced teams among the elite-ranked schools in the land. KU is ranked numero uno in KenPom, with the #7 adjusted offense and adjusted defense in the land. OU is ranked 4th overall in KenPom, and 9th and 8th in the respective adjO and adjD categories.

* Both teams play through their guards...and both rely on a three-pronged attack from the perimeter. For KU, it's Frank, Devonte, and Wayne. For OU, it's Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins, and Jordan Woodard.

* Both teams shoot lights-out from behind the arc. KU is tied for #1 in the land in overall 3-point field goal percentage, at 46.0%, while OU comes in right on our heels at 45.3%. (Those are astounding numbers, by the way, and a sure sign that the game has changed in a very fundamental way...just as orange is the new black, the 3 is the new 2--whether Coach wants to call it fools gold or not!)

* Both teams have set the standard for scoring margin, with KU winning its games by an average of 23 points and OU winning its contests by an average of 20 (best for 3rd and 7th in the land). [Both average high scores as well, with KU averaging 88pg and OU averaging 87]

* Both teams are exceptionally veteran in nature. OU has the edge in this category: 3 of their primary four starters and minute-eaters are seasoned seniors (Hield, Cousins, Spangler), and even Woodard is a very experienced junior. KU, as we know, is led by a senior (Ellis), two juniors (Mason and Selden), and a sophomore (Graham).

* Both are exceptionally well-coached. With Coach Self and Coach Kruger manning the sidelines, nothing further needs to be said.

If we play to our strengths and our perimeter basically manages to fight to a draw with OU's, it will come down to Spangler and OU's upcoming bigs versus our seasoned and unseasoned bigs. Whoever wins inside could prove to be the difference (on both ends of the court, but especially in rebounding, blocks, hustle plays, and HITTING BUNNIES). In this vein, while Spangler is solid, I feel like his 6'8 frame (though broad-shouldered and strong) should not be that overwhelming for our guys when we're on defense. He can stretch the floor with an occasional three, but I'd actually like to see us reverse that with Perry doing most of his damage offensively from outside, off the weave, and off of the creative inbounds screening plays that were so effective against Baylor (freeing up Perry for the easy twos).

Throw in the AFH home court factor (and the return of the students), and I like our chances. However, make no mistake about it, this should be one heck of a battle. Two very evenly-matched, balanced, and relatively experienced teams playing for early pole position in the Big 12. This will be an exceedingly competitive conference to win this year, so it's imperative for KU to hold serve at home.

Bottom line: get your popcorn, your bevy of choice, roll out your good-luck charms and superstitions, put the pets outside or in another room, buckle your seat belts, and get ready for a major early-season rumble in the Old Barn!

Rock Chalk...

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 5 years 1 month ago by konza63.
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5 years 1 month ago #1241 by Bayhawk
Great post in the Konza tradition! Thanks for the break down. I do not look forward to playing in Norman.

BTW: Love the avatar!

RC

The end is nothing; the road is all.
-- Jules Michelet

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5 years 1 month ago #1243 by konza63
Thanks, Bay. I definitely thought of you when I raised that flag!

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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5 years 1 month ago #1246 by NotOstertag
There's a game tonight? ;)

I hate to say it, but this is a bit of a "must win" game. We can afford to split w's with OU and each win at home. Losing in AFH would put the conference championship race clearly into OU's control, and we'd absolutely have to win there.

The teams are very evenly matched, but I think 2 things play into our favor:
1.) AFH. That SHOULD be a bonus to us, but OU is a senior-led team, and all of those guys have had this date circled for at least 8 months, and having been here before, know what to expect. AFH is a definite advantage, but will also be a motivator for OU.

2.) Depth: OU has 6 guys who play over 10 minutes a game. KU has11. OU's top 4 guys score 72% of their points. We split the same percentage across 5 guys. Our 2nd 5 (in avg pts) play an average of 12.78 minutes per player and average 5.18 points. OU's 2nd 5 guys average 10.48 minutes and average 3.5 points.

The depth thing is interesting since OU relies very heavily on Hield, Woodard, Cousins and Spangler (all average 31+ minutes with the exception of Woodward at 27.5). Mason and Graham each average 30 minutes, Ellis is at 26.7, and Selden is at 27.9. After that we've got 7 guys averaging at least 10 minutes (OU has 2).

So it's clear that KU plays more guys and spreads things around more. Tonight that might change since Self will likely rely on whoever is producing and won't have much patience for anybody who isn't 100% on. Nevertheless, we have more options of who we can throw at them, and OU's primary weapons are much more well-defined. If we can a.) avoid foul trouble and b.) get OU into foul trouble that can certainly help.

One other fun fact: of OU's top 4, Heild shoots .905 from the free throw line, and Woodard shoots .897. Cousins and Spangler are both under .600 (everyone playing significant minutes for KU shoots over .600). In particular, I'd target Spangler with Lucas, Mickleson, Traylor, Diallo, and Bragg. That's 25 fouls to give their 2nd leading guy in minutes and 4th leading scorer.

Bottom line, though, perimeter defense will be huge. I feel fairly confident that Mason, Graham and Selden can play decent defense, but we're going to likely need help from Greene and Svi (maybe even Vick) to control the perimeter.

STILL more conference championships than home losses

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5 years 1 month ago #1248 by Kong
Spangler might be the key really. Not just to foul, but to get into foul trouble. I think if we can make them the Buddy Hield show, that will help us defensively. Take away Spangler and you really do limit what they can do offensively. That makes our defense of Hield a bit easier (though he is going to get his no matter what).

Visualize Whirled Peas

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5 years 1 month ago #1256 by NotOstertag
Yes, Heild is going to get his. If we can keep him under his average, that would be huge. He struggled a bit on Saturday (still scored 22). I'd be taking a good look at the ISU game film to see if it was him, or ISU causing him to not play up to his standards. (yes, I know, I'm sure that KU has thoroughly reviewed the video of the ISU/OU game).

Nervous energy now. 7 hours until tipoff.

STILL more conference championships than home losses

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5 years 1 month ago #1263 by CorpusJayhawk
Konza is back with a bang in a typically excellent and cogent post. Thanks and that makes this even more fun. Now for my take on the 4 keys to the game.

1. Stop the drive - This is the No. 1 key to this game. They are ferocious at driving to the rim and very effective. Mickelson will be the key. He needs to be a relentless rim protector.

2. Run the crap out of them - Gathers was gassed at the end of the Baylor game. We need to use our 10 man rotation to beat the crap and run the crap out of them. Stay close and close strong when they are gassed. Run, run, run!!!

3. Rebound - especially the guards. OU is a relentless rebounding team. Do not let them inside.

4. Pray!!! Pray they do not get on a 3 point streak and hit 60%

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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5 years 1 month ago - 5 years 1 month ago #1266 by konza63
Good stuff, Corpus (as always). All four are sound to me, and I think you can also flip #1 for us--meaning I would drive like crazy against them. They have no towering rim protector (I think Spangler is only 6'9), and our three-guard tandem (with a special hat tip to Frank) is outstanding at that game. It is the most disruptive play in basketball when it works well, because in those cases it will either result in a decent look at a shot or the help D coming over to enable an open cutter for the dish.

Off the top of my head, I'd dare say that this team has the best penetration game of any KU team I can recall. Reason: we have not one or two but three guys that can do it and do it as needed. (In the past, we would have a Sherron or a Tyshawn, but a three-headed dribble-drive monster is super hard to deal with) The trick is to pick your spots to utilize it, because if you over-apply it or run into fantastic rim protectors (much less both...see UK Nov 2014 blowout and Nov 2011 loss), the D can adjust. Luckily for this KU team, the outside shooting is so solid that it's a "pick your poison" dilemma for any opposing defense.

Last comment: Your #4 is very well taken. But would you characterize that as a variable that fans actually control (that is, it impacts the game) or just a feel-good placebo? Haha, had to ask...and perhaps that kind of philosophical question would be better positioned on the politics board! :woohoo:

Rock Chalk...

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 5 years 1 month ago by konza63.

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5 years 1 month ago #1271 by Wheatstate Gal
Love, Love LOVE the avatar.......

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5 years 1 month ago #1274 by RobS
Because I just saw on Sportscenter that Dukie V and Brent Mushberger are in the house. :sick:

Since I can't stay awake until 11, I have to DVR. So if I DVR, how can I synch up a radio broadcast?

Mongo just pawn in game of life.

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5 years 1 month ago #1277 by Sieverling
You can do it. The KU radio broadcast is archived right after the game. It includes about an hour of pregame. Load each of them, skip to the the beginning of the game in both (lotta guessing for the radio one), hit play.

To change the subject, Vitale. Ugh. I know many don't like Fran anymore, but I think he's pretty good. He just needs to be a little more neutral when KU is playing one of his kids. The OU one has finally left.

I miss that weekly article about '6 degrees of Vitale' or whatever from grantland. That was always funny, and the alternates were always so plausible.

Hic manebimus optime

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5 years 1 month ago #1280 by LasJayhawk
$5 says Vitale brings up Duke before the 1st tv timeout. :sick:

Yea,yea,yea, keepin' the faith

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5 years 1 month ago #1281 by Sieverling
had an official over/under on that for all his broadcasts.

I know he'll bring up the death of Izzo's father. And Izzo getting nominated or elected to the HOF. And he'll say it's stupid to wait til someone retires to vote them in.

He has to mention someone's beautiful wife.

What else?

Hic manebimus optime

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5 years 1 month ago #1282 by LasJayhawk
O/U on number of times he says diaper dandy?

Yea,yea,yea, keepin' the faith

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5 years 1 month ago #1297 by JhawkMom
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO........................
Crying, sobbing, tears washing my face......Please say you mis read whatever you were reading!!!

Did I say sob sob sob......

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5 years 1 month ago #1298 by JhawkMom
Nobody would be dumb enough to take that bet.

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