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Big 12 projection, Round 1

  • asteroid
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5 years 1 month ago #1200 by asteroid

With this new board, it appears that the font size control is overridden by the "code" control,
which means I can't use a smaller font to squeeze in more characters on a line.  Of course, as
with the previous board, the "code" control is necessary to force the use of a monospaced font
so that the tabular columns will line up; if I take that out, I could use the smaller font, but
then the columns wouldn't line up.  I have to do more experimenting to see just how long a code
line can be without wrapping.  Patience, please.

West Virginia and Oklahoma both trailed their opponents for much of their respective games, but
the Mountaineers managed to get a win on the road while the Sooners were at home, and that
difference was enough for West Virginia to leapfrog Oklahoma in the projected standings.
Texas Tech's win over Texas was enough for the Red Raiders to leapfrog the Longhorns in the
projected standings.  Otherwise the standings are the same.

                      Init.  Rnd 1
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game
----  --------------  -----  -----  ------  ---------
#  2  Kansas          14.37  14.82    1  0   OU  (Mo)
#  3  West Virginia   13.69  13.83    1  0  @TCU (Mo)
#  7  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65    1  0  @KU  (Mo)
# 26  Iowa State       9.68   9.74    0  1   TT  (We)
# 33  Baylor           9.00   8.27    0  1   OSU (Tu)
# 39  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83    1  0  @ISU (We)
# 36  Texas            8.14   7.48    0  1   KSU (Tu)
# 45  Kansas State     6.98   6.79    0  1  @UT  (Tu)
# 85  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28    1  0  @BU  (Tu)
#146  TCU              2.83   2.31    0  1   WV  (Mo)

Obviously, Big Monday is the really big game of Round 2, considering how it is expected to
match #1 and #2 in the human polls.  Texas hosting Kansas State is projected to have a smaller
margin, however.  West Virginia at TCU is the ugly game of the Round.  TCU managed to score
only 48 points against the next weakest team in the conference, and the Horned Frogs were at
home to boot.  It could be a long season in Fort Worth.  Those with keen eyes may noticed two
new columns, one being Don Davis' DPPI and the other being "A-HC", which is really just my own
projection, but with the home court advantage determined from last season (5.22 points) rather
than the Sagarin home court advantage (currently 3.41 points).

Predictions                                                                                                   
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
UT  over KSU     4.5
KU  over OU      5.5
ISU over TT      6.8
BU  over OSU     8.9
WV  over TCU    15.3                                                                                            projected road win

The trend analysis did a much better job of predicting the Kansas versus Baylor margin, and that
was more than enough to earn honors for best prognostications in Round 1 and therefore also has
the early season lead.  ESPN's BPI was a distant second, and Don Davis' DPPI managed a respectable
third place in its debut.  Note that my own correction to the Sagarin prediction made things worse,
but use of the Big 12 home court advantage instead of the Sagarin home court advantage made things
better.  It will be interesting to see how that plays out moving forward.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Error                                                                                 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
TT  over UT      2.3   5.0   4.2   3.5  -1.0   4.5  10.0   3.0   6.6   7.4  13.0   2.5   3.2   5.0   8.3   7.6      8     5.7   3.0   3.8   4.5   9.0   3.5   2.0   5.0   1.4   0.6   5.0   5.5   4.8   3.0   0.3   0.4
OSU over TCU     6.3   7.0   6.0   6.0   8.0   5.5  13.0   6.3   5.2   6.4   6.0   3.9   6.6   8.4   8.7   7.3     21    14.7  14.0  15.0  15.0  13.0  15.5   8.0  14.7  15.8  14.6  15.0  17.1  14.4  12.6  12.3  13.7
WVU over KSU     7.6   3.0   2.3   4.5   8.0   3.5  -4.0   6.7   4.1   3.3  -1.0   5.0  11.0   9.2   5.6   9.5      4     3.6   1.0   1.7   0.5   4.0   0.5   8.0   2.7   0.1   0.7   5.0   1.0   7.0   5.2   1.6   5.5
OU  over ISU    10.0   9.0   9.9   8.0  12.5   8.0  19.0  10.9  10.4   8.5   7.0   8.3  11.7  13.5  12.3  11.1      4     6.0   5.0   5.9   4.0   8.5   4.0  15.0   6.9   6.4   4.5   3.0   4.3   7.7   9.5   8.3   7.1
KU  over BU     11.7  11.0  11.0  11.5  13.0  10.5  12.0  12.5  12.0  10.7  13.0  11.2  13.3  15.1  22.4  16.3     28    16.3  17.0  17.0  16.5  15.0  17.5  16.0  15.5  16.0  17.3  15.0  16.8  14.7  12.9   5.6  11.7

total this round                                                                                                         46.3  40.0  43.4  40.5  49.5  41.0  49.0  44.8  39.7  37.7  43.0  44.7  48.6  43.2  28.1  38.4
previous total
cumulative                                                                                                               46.3  40.0  43.4  40.5  49.5  41.0  49.0  44.8  39.7  37.7  43.0  44.7  48.6  43.2  28.1  38.4
per game (total of  5)                                                                                                    9.3   8.0   8.7   8.1   9.9   8.2   9.8   9.0   7.9   7.5   8.6   8.9   9.7   8.6   5.6   7.7

Only one road win in Round 1, and only one projected road win in Round 2, by the same West Virginia
team, which ought to be taking an early lead in the differential column.

Road wins ( 1 out of  5)              Home losses                                   Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     -----------------------------------------     --------------------
1 West Virginia                       0 Baylor                                      +1 West Virginia 
0 Baylor                              0 Iowa State                                   0 Baylor        
0 Iowa State                          0 Kansas                                       0 Iowa State    
0 Kansas                              0 Oklahoma                                     0 Kansas        
0 Kansas State                        0 Oklahoma State                               0 Oklahoma      
0 Oklahoma                            0 TCU                                          0 Oklahoma State
0 Oklahoma State                      0 Texas                                        0 TCU           
0 TCU                                 0 Texas Tech                                   0 Texas         
0 Texas                               0 West Virginia                                0 Texas Tech    
0 Texas Tech                          1 Kansas State                                -1 Kansas State  

Texas Tech has had five consecutive above-expectation performances at home (they have yet to play
a road game) to give them a strong positive trend, and they've played all of their games within
10 points of expectation, giving them the best consistency rating; we'll see what happens in Ames
on Wednesday, where the Red Raiders are a 7 point underdog.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +2.95    Texas Tech        6.18    Texas Tech      +1.42 +/- 0.30    Oklahoma State  +0.34 +/- 0.33
Kansas          +2.16    Kansas            8.02    Kansas          +1.14 +/- 0.60    Iowa State      +0.27 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma        +1.85    Kansas State      8.73    Oklahoma State  +0.33 +/- 0.85    Oklahoma        +0.18 +/- 0.25
Texas Tech      +1.21    Oklahoma          8.88    Texas           +0.16 +/- 0.91    Kansas State    +0.15 +/- 0.20
Iowa State      +0.49    Iowa State        9.14    Kansas State    -0.14 +/- 0.67    Kansas          -0.09 +/- 0.23
Texas           +0.26    TCU               9.46    Oklahoma        -0.32 +/- 0.77    TCU             -0.16 +/- 0.21
Baylor          -0.05    West Virginia    10.37    West Virginia   -0.46 +/- 0.79    Texas Tech      -0.19 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma State  -0.19    Oklahoma State   11.02    TCU             -1.01 +/- 0.67    Baylor          -0.26 +/- 0.23
Kansas State    -0.20    Baylor           11.78    Iowa State      -1.05 +/- 0.63    Texas           -0.38 +/- 0.28
TCU             -0.55    Texas            11.83    Baylor          -2.12 +/- 0.78    West Virginia   -0.49 +/- 0.23

Prophetic:  "As usual, Schedule Strengths are fairly low but will improve rapidly as conference play accumulates."
Baylor's strength of schedule ranking improved 53 spots.  Prophetic:  "the Bears may be in for a rude awakening
starting this weekend."  That Charmin soft non-conference schedule they played didn't prepare them for Kansas in
Allen Field House.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    ---------------------------
Oklahoma        86.00    West Virginia   62.46    Iowa State      158.38    West Virginia   +22.92    Texas           77.81 ( 10)
West Virginia   85.38    Oklahoma State  63.23    Oklahoma        154.50    Kansas          +18.67    Kansas          75.35 ( 49)
Iowa State      84.92    Kansas State    64.54    Kansas          149.83    Oklahoma        +17.50    Oklahoma        75.26 ( 50)
Kansas          84.25    Kansas          65.58    West Virginia   147.85    Iowa State      +11.46    Iowa State      74.76 ( 71)
Baylor          78.25    TCU             65.92    Baylor          146.17    Baylor          +10.33    Texas Tech      73.54 (111)
Texas Tech      75.25    Texas Tech      66.75    Texas           145.08    Texas Tech       +8.50    West Virginia   70.89 (224)
Texas           75.08    Baylor          67.92    Texas Tech      142.00    Kansas State     +8.15    Kansas State    70.79 (231)
Kansas State    72.69    Oklahoma        68.50    Kansas State    137.23    Oklahoma State   +7.31    Baylor          69.58 (275)
Oklahoma State  70.54    Texas           70.00    TCU             135.92    Texas            +5.08    Oklahoma State  69.03 (289)
TCU             70.00    Iowa State      73.46    Oklahoma State  133.77    TCU              +4.08    TCU             67.08 (334)
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The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, NotOstertag

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