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predictions for Baylor game

  • asteroid
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4 years 1 month ago #1122 by asteroid
Baylor has played just two true road games so far this season and lost both
of them.  Then again, both were top-tier opponents.  The Bears have played
just one top-tier opponent at home, and squeaked by the same Vanderbilt team
that the Jayhawks handled on a neutral court in Maui.  Otherwise, Baylor
hasn't been tested much; Sagarin ranks their strength of schedule as #326,
and that's out of 351 Division I teams.  They may be in for a shock when
they visit Allen Field House.  Then again, Rico Gathers has been there before.

Sagarin gives Kansas an 11.7 point margin, with an 89.8 percent probability of
winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 145.5 points per game,
that suggests a final score of Kansas 79, Baylor 67.  Kansas has been playing
1.9 points above expectation, while Baylor has been playing 0.3 points above
expectation, which means that the margin could be 13.3 points.  Kansas has a
positive trend with marginal statistical significance, while Baylor's trend is
decidedly negative, triggered by recent below expectation performances against
Northwestern State, Texas A&M, and Texas Southern, while their best game of the
season came in the opener against Stephen F. Austin.  Both teams have negative
mental toughness ratings, but neither is statistically significant.  Taken at
face value, the margin for Kansas increases to a whopping 22.4 points.  Kansas
is among the most consistent teams and has played below expectation by enough
to lose today's game only once (Harvard); out of 11 Division I games, that's
just a 9 percent probability of losing.  Meanwhile, Baylor is among the least
consistent teams, but they've played above expectation by enough to win today's
game only once (Stephen F. Austin, in the season opener); out of 11 Division I
games, that's just a 9 percent probability of winning.  So the odds are pretty
favorable for Kansas.  Take care of business today, and Big Monday could feature
a battle between two #1 teams (in different polls)!

Unfortunately, Massey's web site has been inaccessible for the past hour, and
I'm not going to wait for it to reappear any longer.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 5.6 units, as well as the
better adjusted defense by 5.2 units, which combine to a 10.8 units advantage for
Kansas.  With an average of 70.4 possessions per game, the margin for Kansas works
out to 7.6 points on a neutral court.  Add Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage,
and the margin becomes 11.0 points.  The ratings suggest a score of Kansas 79,
Baylor 68, within a point of Sagarin's prediction.

Greenfield gives Kansas an 11.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 79 to 67.5 (you pick the rounding, but rounding up puts it into
perfect agreement with Pomeroy).  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the
advantage in five of eight categories; Baylor has more assists per game, has more
rebounds per game, and has a higher offensive rebound percentage.  Among the key
defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of seven categories; Baylor gets
more offensive rebounds per game and more steals per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 13 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at 10.5
points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  With a total points projection
of 141, the implied final score is Kansas 77, Baylor 64.  Meanwhile, he claims the
Vegas total is 146.5, which would imply a final score of Kansas 78.5 (you pick the
rounding), Baylor 68.  Judging from the tabulated win-loss numbers, Dunkel's
rankings are still way out-of-date.

Real Time gives Kansas a 12.0 point margin, with a 76.8 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 84, Baylor 72.  That's
the highest point total of the bunch.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 12.5 point margin with an 84.8 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 82, Baylor 69.

What is Colley smoking?  Texas Tech is now his #6 team!  Kansas is down at #18.
Tech's best win is against #29 Little Rock, while our best win is supposedly
#40 Oregon State.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 11.8 units, but we need to calibrate that
differential.  Currently, Whitlock has Oklahoma on top with a rating of 57.58
and Central Connecticut at the bottom with a rating of 3.48, while Sagarin had
those two teams with Predictor ratings of 92.60 and 53.32, so the differential
for Whitlock is 54.10 while the differential for Sagarin Predictor is 39.28,
suggesting a scaling factor of 0.726, so the 11.8 unit differential becomes
8.6 points on a neutral court.  Add Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage,
and the margin becomes 12.0 points.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 7.3; add Sagarin's
3.4 point home court advantage, and the margin for Kansas becomes 10.7 points.

LRMC is not yet available for this season.  I'm showing their rankings for Kansas
and Baylor from last season.  I think LRMC appears around NCAA Tournament time.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 13.0 point margin, corresponding to a 97 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 80 to 67.

Crotistics gives Kansas an 11.2 point margin.

The DPPI gives Kansas a 16.3 point margin with an 86.3 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 81, Baylor 65.

There is one common opponent, namely Vanderbilt:

KU   +7 Van neutral ( +7 neutral)
BU   +2 Van at home ( -2 neutral)
KU  +13 BU  at home ( +9 neutral)

Players to watch:  Guard Al Freeman plays the most minutes, but otherwise doesn't
lead the Bears in any other category.  Forward Taurean Prince scores the most
points, but also commits the most turnovers.  Forward Rico Gathers gathers the
most rebounds and blocks the most shots.  Guard Lester Medford dishes the most
assists and is their leading thief.  Guard Ish Wainwright commits the most personal
fouls despite playing the fifth-most minutes.

The average of the various prognostications is 13.0 points in favor of Kansas.
The projected final score would be Kansas 79, Baylor 66.

Rock Chalk!  And Happy New Year!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  2   # 80   #  2   #  2   #  3   +1.9    7.2   +0.73 +/- 0.68   -0.12 +/- 0.20
Baylor         # 34   #326   # 31   # 31   # 36   +0.3   10.9   -1.95 +/- 0.89   -0.20 +/- 0.26
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  5  # 21   #  2   #103   #  1  #  7    # 14    #  4   # 90   # 24   #135
Baylor         # 77  # 88   # 29   #132   # 29  # 58    # 17    # 25   #318   # 94   #277
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----
Kansas         #  8   #  8   #  5   # 10   # 12   #  7   #  7   0.927   11-1
Baylor         # 43   # 44   # 32   # 80   #105   # 44   # 39   0.391   10-2
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # 18  #110    #  6  # 77    # 10  #110    # 10  #  1    #  3  # 26    #  4  # 22
Baylor         # 62  #258    # 44  #204    # 46  #159    # 14  #  4    # 65  #227    # 34  #159

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #316 Northern Colorado          109  72   +36.10    +0.90
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              73  79    +0.58    -6.58
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 54 UCLA                        92  73   +12.30    +6.70
NEUT   #  8 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +2.04    +4.96
HOME   #272 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +32.39    +0.61
HOME   # 85 Harvard                     75  69   +18.24   -12.24
HOME   #234 Holy Cross                  92  59   +29.37    +3.63
HOME   # 59 Oregon State                82  67   +16.28    -1.28
HOME   #195 Montana                     88  46   +26.79   +15.21
AWAY   # 67 San Diego State             70  57   +10.03    +2.97
HOME   # 89 UC Irvine                   78  53   +18.88    +6.12
HOME   # 31 Baylor                               +11.74             0.898
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                              +4.27             0.699
AWAY   # 45 Texas Tech                            +7.41             0.862
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia                         -2.90             0.375
HOME   #135 TCU                                  +21.95             0.997
AWAY   # 90 Oklahoma State                       +12.24             0.910
HOME   # 34 Texas                                +13.19             0.905
AWAY   # 29 Iowa State                            +3.95             0.681
HOME   # 24 Kentucky                             +10.23             0.865
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                         +14.98             0.964
AWAY   #135 TCU                                  +15.07             0.969
HOME   #  4 West Virginia                         +3.98             0.669
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                              -2.61             0.375
HOME   # 90 Oklahoma State                       +19.12             0.982
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                          +8.10             0.835
AWAY   # 31 Baylor                                +4.86             0.700
HOME   # 45 Texas Tech                           +14.29             0.982
AWAY   # 34 Texas                                 +6.31             0.735
HOME   # 29 Iowa State                           +10.83             0.901

Here is Baylor's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #183 Stephen F. Austin           97  55   +18.05   +23.95
AWAY   # 35 Oregon                      67  74    -1.96    -5.04
HOME   #199 Jackson State               77  60   +18.92    -1.92
HOME   #334 Savannah State             100  61   +30.25    +8.75
HOME   #245 Arkansas State              94  72   +21.61    +0.39
HOME   #343 Prairie View A&M            80  41   +32.06    +6.94
HOME   #  8 Vanderbilt                  69  67    -2.82    +4.82
HOME   #304 Northwestern State          75  62   +26.42   -13.42
Div2        Hardin-Simmons             104  59
AWAY   # 21 Texas A&M                   61  80    -5.93   -13.07
HOME   #129 New Mexico State            85  70   +13.32    +1.68
HOME   #256 Texas Southern              72  59   +22.56    -9.56
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -11.74             0.102
HOME   # 90 Oklahoma State                       +10.82             0.841
AWAY   # 29 Iowa State                            -4.35             0.335
HOME   #135 TCU                                  +13.65             0.915
AWAY   # 45 Texas Tech                            -0.89             0.460
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                          +6.68             0.745
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                              -4.03             0.344
AWAY   # 90 Oklahoma State                        +3.94             0.642
HOME   # 69 Georgia                               +8.66             0.785
HOME   # 34 Texas                                 +4.89             0.663
AWAY   #  4 West Virginia                        -11.20             0.150
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                          -0.20             0.492
HOME   # 45 Texas Tech                            +5.99             0.748
HOME   # 29 Iowa State                            +2.53             0.598
AWAY   # 34 Texas                                 -1.99             0.432
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -4.86             0.300
AWAY   #135 TCU                                   +6.77             0.752
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                             -10.91             0.139
HOME   #  4 West Virginia                         -4.32             0.345
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, jhawkgib, JayhawkChef, porthawk, WAJayhawk

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