predictions for Montana game

Earlier in the season, I listed Montana as one of the teams that might be in
the bottom tier and therefore not a very strong test for Kansas.  Then the
Grizzlies came within 3 points of Gonzaga, and their rating zoomed up to near
the top of the middle tier.  But after the huge loss to Washington, they've
settled near the middle of the middle tier.  Whether they'll be a decent test
for Kansas is hard to say because of the Grizzlies' inconsistency.  Easily
the least consistent of the teams that Kansas has faced to date this season.
Their 4-5 record is also a bit deceiving, as 2 of those wins came against
NAIA schools.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 21.4 point margin, with a 96.6 percent probability of
winning the game.  Kansas has been playing 1.5 points above expectation, while
Montana has been playing right about expectation, which means that the margin
could be 22.9 points.  The Harvard game saddled Kansas with a negative trend,
but it's not statistically significant; meanwhile, Montana has a positive
trend, though it's also not statistically significant.  Kansas has a weakly
positive mental toughness rating, which can hurt a little when playing a
weaker opponent.  Montana has a negative mental toughness rating, which hurts
them when playing a stronger opponent.  The effects largely cancel out; the
net effect is to reduce the margin slightly to 20.9 points.  Montana has
played one game above expectation by enough to win today's game, but Kansas
has not played any games below expectation by enough to lose.  I find it
interesting that Sagarin has Montana with the #32 strength of schedule while
Kansas is down at #120.  The Grizzlies have played three top-tier teams,
but Kansas has played four top-tier teams, including two top ten teams;
Montana has played two bottom-tier teams, but Kansas has played three
bottom-tier teams.  Montana has played two middle-tier teams, while Kansas
has played one.  Montana has played two non-Division I teams, while Kansas
has played one.  Frankly, I don't understand Sagarin's strength of schedule
algorith.  But as tough as the Big 12 is, that will take care of itself.

Massey gives Kansas a 24 point margin with a 97 percent probability of
winning the game.  He is predicting a final score of 83 to 59.  At least
Massey's strength of schedule rankings make sense.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 13.6 units, as well as the
better adjusted defense by 8.6 units, which combine to 22.2 units.  With an average
of 71.5 possessions per game, the margin for Kansas works out to 15.9 points on a
neutral court.  Add Sagarin's 3.5 point home court advantage, and the margin
becomes 19.4 points.  The ratings suggest a score of Kansas 82, Montana 63.
Pomeroy's strength of schedule rankings don't make sense.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 23.0 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 85 to 62.  Among the key offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in all eight categories.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage
in all seven categories.  Greenfield's strength of schedule rankings make sense.

Dunkel apparently doesn't deem this game worthy of a prediction.  It's not among
his list of games on Saturday.  Meanwhile, his rankings page is broken.

Real Time is being inconsistent again.  The schedule page shows a 27 point margin
with a projected final score of 89 to 62, while the Scouting Report link shows a
26 point margin with a projected final score of 88 to 62 and a 98.5 percent
probability of winning the game.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 20.4 point margin with a 95.3 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 83, Montana 63.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 27.8 units, but we need to calibrate that
differential.  Previously, Whitlock had Oklahoma on top with a rating of 64.28
and Central Connecticut at the bottom with a rating of 0.00, while Sagarin had
those two teams with ratings of 93.91 and 52.66, so the differential for Whitlock
is 64.28 while the differential for Sagarin is 41.25, suggesting a scaling factor
of 0.642, so the 27.8 unit differential becomes 17.9 points on a neutral court.
Add Sagarin's 3.5 point home court advantage, and the margin becomes 21.4 points.
I'll plan on tweaking the scaling after the ratings stabilize later this month.

ESPN's BPI is now available for this season.  The points versus average differential
is 15.3; add Sagarin's 3.5 point home court advantage, and the margin for Kansas
becomes 18.8 points.

LMRC is not yet available for this season.  I'm showing their rankings for Kansas
and Montana from last season.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 28.0 point margin, corresponding to a 99 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 87 to 59.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 20.3 point margin.

There are no common opponents.

Players to watch:  Guard Michael Oguine plays the most minutes and blocks the most
shots.  Forward Martin Breunig scores the most points, grabs the most rebounds, but
also commits the most turnovers.  Guard Walter Wright dishes the most assists and
is their leading thief.  Forward Fabijan Krslovic commits the most personal fouls,
which is significant because he plays the fifth-most minutes.

The average of the various prognostications is 22.6 points in favor of Kansas.  The
projected final score would be Kansas 83, Montana 61, with the rounding in Montana's
favor.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  7   #120   # 10   #  7   #  6   +1.5    7.4   -0.57 +/- 1.21   +0.06 +/- 0.21
Montana        #177   # 32   #153   #183   #190    0.0   14.9   +0.91 +/- 3.05   -0.26 +/- 0.65
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         # 10  # 28   #  6   #136   #  4  #  2    #       #  6   #143   # 30   #115
Montana        #212  #161   #160   # 45   #186  #155    #       #222   # 74   #224   #112
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----
Kansas         #  6   #  6   # 11   # 25   # 26   #  7   #  6   0.991    8-1
Montana        #215   #214   #167   #227   #206   #213   #209   0.244    4-5
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # 21  #119    #  9  # 98    # 25  #128    # 10  #  1    #  7  # 27    # 10  # 19
Montana        #238  # 97    #221  #225    #215  #233    #158  #285    #286  # 75    #205  #115

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #323 Northern Colorado          109  72   +34.94    +2.06
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State              73  79    -3.01    -2.99
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 44 UCLA                        92  73    +8.66   +10.34
NEUT   #  5 Vanderbilt                  70  63    -1.64    +8.64
HOME   #286 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +31.28    +1.72
HOME   #130 Harvard                     75  69   +19.31   -13.31
HOME   #245 Holy Cross                  92  59   +27.61    +5.39
HOME   # 68 Oregon State                82  67   +14.70    +0.30
HOME   #153 Montana                              +21.37             0.966
AWAY   # 60 San Diego State                       +6.76             0.764
HOME   # 92 UC Irvine                            +16.40             0.960
HOME   # 24 Baylor                                +7.17             0.778
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma                              +1.53             0.565
AWAY   # 74 Texas Tech                            +8.01             0.803
AWAY   #  6 West Virginia                         -4.97             0.298
HOME   #108 TCU                                  +17.90             0.972
AWAY   #107 Oklahoma State                       +10.86             0.876
HOME   # 35 Texas                                +10.27             0.863
AWAY   # 23 Iowa State                            -0.27             0.489
HOME   # 25 Kentucky                              +7.23             0.780
HOME   # 54 Kansas State                         +13.34             0.922
AWAY   #108 TCU                                  +10.88             0.877
HOME   #  6 West Virginia                         +2.05             0.586
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                              -5.49             0.279
HOME   #107 Oklahoma State                       +17.88             0.972
AWAY   # 54 Kansas State                          +6.32             0.750
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                                +0.15             0.506
HOME   # 74 Texas Tech                           +15.03             0.945
AWAY   # 35 Texas                                 +3.25             0.635
HOME   # 23 Iowa State                            +6.75             0.764

Here is Montana's season to-date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 69 Boise State                 74  72    -3.14    +5.14
AWAY   #297 San Jose State              61  64    +7.41   -10.41
NAIA        Carroll College             70  61
AWAY   #145 North Dakota State          53  73    -4.27   -15.73
AWAY   #123 Pepperdine                  63  69    -5.91    -0.09
HOME   #247 San Francisco               82  50    +9.88   +22.12
AWAY   # 26 Gonzaga                     58  61   -17.53   +14.53
AWAY   # 36 Washington                  62  92   -14.35   -15.65
NAIA        Univ. of Great Falls        79  59
AWAY   # 10 Kansas                               -21.37             0.035