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predictions for Oregon State game

  • asteroid
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4 years 7 months ago #198 by asteroid
Another top-tier opponent to help boost Kansas' sagging strength of schedule
rating, at least according to Sagarin.  Greenfield still has Kansas with the
#1 strength of schedule.  Clearly, playing two Top Ten opponents carries more
weight than playing three cupcakes (four if you include non-Division I
Chaminade), as far as Greenfield is concerned.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 14.3 point margin, with a 95.7 percent probability of
winning the game.  Kansas has been playing 1.3 points above expectation, while
Oregon State has been playing 0.4 points above expectation, which means that
the margin could be 15.2 points.  The Harvard game saddled Kansas with a
negative trend, but it's not statistically significant; meanwhile, Oregon State
has played below expectation their last three games and in four of their last
five games, giving the Beavers a negative trend of some statistical
significance.  Both teams have positive mental toughness ratings, but neither
is statistically significant.  The net effect is to reduce the margin for
Kansas to 13.3 points.  Both teams have played more consistently than the
national average, making it harder for Kansas to lose and for Oregon State to
win, hence the probability of victory is higher in comparison to the others
below.

Massey gives Kansas just a 10 point margin with an 82 percent probability of
winning the game.  He is predicting a final score of 73 to 63.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 6.8 units, as well as the
better adjusted defense by 3.9 units, which combine to 10.7 units.  With an average
of 71.3 possessions per game, the margin for Kansas works out to only 7.6 points
on a neutral court.  Add Sagarin's 3.5 point home court advantage, and the margin
becomes 11.1 points.  The ratings suggest a score of Kansas 78, Oregon State 67.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 13.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 80 to either 66 or 67 (you pick the rounding).  Among the key
offensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in six out of eight categories; the
Beavers grab more total rebounds per game and their offensive rebound percentage
is higher.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in four of
seven categories; Oregon State limits opponents to fewer points per game, holds
opponents to a lower effective field goal percentage, and blocks more shots per
game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 16.5 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is at
13 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  Dunkel also predicts
144 total points, suggesting a final score of Kansas 80, Oregon State 64.  The
Vegas total is supposedly 149 points, suggesting Kansas 81, Oregon State 68.

Real Time gives Kansas just a 6 point margin.  I wonder if Real Time considers
the Sprint Center to be a neutral court?  The projected final score is Kansas 81,
Oregon State 75.  The probability of winning the game is just 68.8 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.  Today's
game should help the Kansas RPI quite a bit.  Of course, the Big 12 conference
schedule will help a lot.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 14.7 point margin with an 88.3 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 82, Oregon State 67.

What has Colley been smoking?  He has a 6-1 Texas Tech team ranked ahead of Kansas
(#18 compared to #44), even though Tech's best win so far is over Hawaii, whereas
Kansas beat Vanderbilt as well as a UCLA team that knocked off Kentucky.  Colley
considers Kansas' best win to be against #55 UCLA, but the Jayhawks can beat
#37 Oregon State, then that would be Kansas' best win.

Whitlock is now on board for this season.  The ratings differential is 11.3 units,
but we need to calibrate that differential.  Last time, Whitlock had Oklahoma on
top with a rating of 64.28 and Central Connecticut at the bottom with a rating of
0.00, while Sagarin had those two teams with ratings of 93.91 and 52.66, so the
differential for Whitlock is 64.28 while the differential for Sagarin is 41.25,
suggesting a scaling factor of 0.642, so the 11.3 unit differential becomes 7.3
points on a neutral court.  Add Sagarin's 3.5 point home court advantage, and the
margin becomes 10.8 points.  I'll plan on tweaking the scaling after the ratings
stabilize later this month.

ESPN's BPI is not yet available for this season.

LMRC is also not yet available for this season.  I'm showing their rankings for
Kansas and Oregon State from last season.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a mere 2.0 point margin, corresponding to a 58
percent probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 75 to 73.
This curious prediction might be due to the fact that Seven Overtimes is calling
Oregon State the home team and Kansas the visitor!  So if you use Sagarin's 3.5
point home court advantage, take that away from Oregon State and give it to
Kansas, suddenly a 2 point margin becomes a 9 point margin, which is more
consistent with the other prognostications.

Crotistics gives Kansas an 11.2 point margin.

There are no common opponents, despite the fact that both teams have played
Loyola.  Kansas played the Maryland incarnation of Loyola, while Oregon State
played the Marymount incarnation of Loyola.

Players to watch:  Oregon State relies heavily on guard Gary Payton II, who plays
the most minutes, scores the most points, grabs the most rebounds, dishes the most
assists, and gets the most steals.  Hold him in check and you control the game.
Forward Drew Eubanks blocks the most shots.  Forward Jamal Reid plays a fair
number of minutes, despite leading the Beavers in turnovers and personal fouls.

The average of the various prognostications is 12.2 points in favor of Kansas.  The
projected final score would be Kansas 80, Oregon State 67, with the rounding giving
us an extra point on the margin.

Rock Chalk!  And beat USC, Elite Eight volleyballers!!!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  7   #196   # 10   #  7   #  6   +1.3    7.8   -0.55 +/- 1.59   +0.09 +/- 0.21
Oregon State   # 58   #165   # 69   # 54   # 53   +0.4    8.8   -2.82 +/- 1.88   +0.55 +/- 0.76
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         # 13  # 48   #  6   #192   #  6  #  1    # 14    #  8   # 76   # 67   #189
Oregon State   # 66  #180   # 44   #183   # 73  #119    # 93    # 72   #104   # 27   # 85
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----
Kansas         # 13   # 14   # 12   # 44   # 76   # 23   # 11   0.955    7-1
Oregon State   # 55   # 56   # 88   # 36   # 39   # 34   # 57   0.128    6-1
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         # 44  #244    # 16  #153    #     #       # 10  #  1    # 14  # 29    # 14  # 44
Oregon State   # 37  #116    # 69  #175    #     #       # 90  # 72    # 55  #170    # 66  #185

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #340 Northern Colorado          109  72   +37.23    -0.23
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State              73  79    -3.57    -2.43
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 55 UCLA                        92  73    +9.45    +9.55
NEUT   #  5 Vanderbilt                  70  63    -1.89    +8.89
HOME   #283 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +30.81    +2.19
HOME   #137 Harvard                     75  69   +19.23   -13.23
HOME   #260 Holy Cross                  92  59   +28.69    +4.31
HOME   # 69 Oregon State                         +14.25             0.957
HOME   #120 Montana                              +18.47             0.974
AWAY   # 62 San Diego State                       +6.95             0.767
HOME   #101 UC Irvine                            +17.14             0.964
HOME   # 23 Baylor                                +6.33             0.747
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma                              +0.54             0.523
AWAY   # 87 Texas Tech                            +8.96             0.827
AWAY   #  9 West Virginia                         -3.81             0.345
HOME   #109 TCU                                  +17.78             0.969
AWAY   #106 Oklahoma State                       +10.68             0.869
HOME   # 33 Texas                                 +9.44             0.839
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                            -2.75             0.386
HOME   # 24 Kentucky                              +7.02             0.769
HOME   # 47 Kansas State                         +12.44             0.904
AWAY   #109 TCU                                  +10.82             0.872
HOME   #  9 West Virginia                         +3.15             0.630
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                              -6.42             0.250
HOME   #106 Oklahoma State                       +17.64             0.968
AWAY   # 47 Kansas State                          +5.48             0.717
AWAY   # 23 Baylor                                -0.63             0.474
HOME   # 87 Texas Tech                           +15.92             0.953
AWAY   # 33 Texas                                 +2.48             0.603
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                            +4.21             0.671

Here is Oregon State's season to-date:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NAIA        Northwest Christian         74  52
HOME   # 96 Iona                        93  73    +5.87   +14.13
AWAY   #302 Rice                        77  69   +14.14    -6.14
AWAY   #159 UC Santa Barbara            71  59    +3.26    +8.74
HOME   # 39 Valparaiso                  57  63    +0.42    -6.42
HOME   #209 Loyola Marymount            79  70   +13.41    -4.41
HOME   #119 Nevada                      66  62    +7.64    -3.64
AWAY   # 10 Kansas                               -14.25             0.043
The following user(s) said Thank You: Sieverling, HawkErrant, CorpusJayhawk, jhawkgib, Bayhawk, reicher

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  • Sieverling
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4 years 7 months ago #199 by Sieverling
BTW, guys. There's a thank you/thumbs up button at the bottom of every post.

Hic manebimus optime

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4 years 7 months ago #203 by CorpusJayhawk
I would love to see Colley's algorithm. That is insane.

Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!

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