Without having read yet what Coach had to say or anyone else's posts in this thread, I must say I was wrong.

While Jeff helped slam the door in the last :40 after Thomas fouled out, until then he was not playing well in the critical last 13:25 (point at which KU led by 21 and then saw A&M eat away at the lead).

Analysis shows it really was a team failure, with Jeff played miserably until replacing Thomas after the latter fouled out.
I have the game timeline (who's in, who's out for Jeff, TRob & TT) at the end of this post for those interested.

Summary
Looking just at Tyshawn, Thomas and Jeff over the last 13:25 --

For Thomas and Jeff, KU's stop frequency was LESS when they were in than when they were out.
IOW, they were not doing a particularly good job of contributing to team D in the last 13:25, with Thomas actually being the worst (most likely an indicator his foul trouble/frustration with the refs was bothering him?).

KU's scoring frequency was 1.8 times greater when Tyshawn was in versus him sitting...
... and he sat for 55% of the last 13:25. And KU played significantly better on D with him in (A&M's scoring frequency was 1.2 times greater with Tyshawn on the bench), so clearly the foul trouble that had him out from 7:56 to 2:08 (5:48) was almost fatal.

KU's scoring frequency was 1.6 times greater when Thomas was in v. sitting, and he sat 47% of that period. But A&M scored more often than KU did when Thomas was in, so his contributions on offense were offset by KU's poor showing on D.

But with Jeff in (57% of the 13:25), KU's scoring frequency was just 1.07 times more (including his 4 points in the last :40). In other words, over the course of the last 13:25, Jeff's presence or absence made no real difference in KU's scoring frequency, even though he did come up big time in the last :40 of the game.

So Jeff was not playing as well as we had hoped for on O or D, which is probably why HCBS benched him. He did seem to be much less aggressive all around (despite the 4 blocks for the game), and that is troubling as the season draws to a close.

But it was not having Tyshawn on the floor for a total of 7:23 of the last 13:25 because of foul trouble that almost did KU in. KU's point production and defense both significantly diminished without him. Whether that was a function of his sitting or KU trying to run down the clock cannot be said for certain, as it was almost certainly a function of both, but it is still troubling, even after allowing for an A&M team that is probably the healthiest it has been all year.

13:25  KU 47-26 A&M
FINAL  KU 66-58 A&M
DELTA  KU 19-32 A&M over the last 13:25 of the game

        TIME	KU PTS	A&M PTS KUPPM A&MPPM
JW IN	07:42	13	19	1.69	2.47
JW OUT	05:43	9	13	1.57	2.27
					
TER IN	07:03	14	18	1.99	2.55
TER OUT	06:22	8	14	1.26	2.20
					
TT IN	06:02	13	13	2.15	2.15
TT OUT	07:23	9	19	1.22	2.57

In/Out for Key players

13:26  44-26 (TER, JW in, TT sitting)
13:25  47-26 (TER scores 2+1)
             3-3 A&M in TT's absence
11:50  47-29 TT enters, JW sits, TER (PF3) sits
             2-5 A&M with both JW and TER out
 9:15  49-34 JW enters (TT still in, TER still out)
             2-3 A&M
 7:56  51-37 JW still in, TER in, TT out PF4 (will sit until 2:08 mark, 5:48 on the bench)
             4-6 A&M
 6:16  55-43 TER still in, JW sits, TT still out
             2-4 A&M
 4:36  57-47 JW enters, TER sits, TT still out
             0-6 A&M  (6-16 A&M while TT out after PF4)
 2:08  57-53 TER and TT enter, JW sits (EJ, CT and TRel also on floor)
             5-5 Tie
  :40  62-58  TER TPF5, JW in
             4-0 KU
  :00  66-58  Final

NB: 2012-02-25 -- data and text adjusted for scoring error in original analysis. Only significant change in analysis was Taylor's impact on defense going from a negative to a positive, which further reinforces the supposition that his absence for 55% of the last 13:25 was the most critical element in A&M's comeback. HE

---

"So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late" -- Bob Dylan
Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime. - Mark Twain, "Innocents Abroad"
"Out of the tree of life I just picked me a plum... Still it's a real good bet the best is yet to come." song sung by Sheahon Zenger, 2011-12-09.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 02/25/2012 02:49AM by HawkErrant.